Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
137
FXUS63 KDLH 152155
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
355 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog for areas near Lake Superior this afternoon and evening.
- A light wintry mix is likely (50-80%) for far northern MN
this evening and overnight. There is also a slight chance
(15%) for some light rain to move across NW WI tonight.
- An impactful winter storm will move across the Upper Midwest
late Tuesday through early Thursday. This system will be
bringing an initial wintry mix and then the potential for
heavy, wet snowfall along with strong winds. Near-blizzard
conditions are possible along the North Shore. Hazardous
travel impacts are expected.
- The active weather pattern continues late this week with
additional chances for snowfall and a return to seasonal
temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Rest of Today - Tonight:
Plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures being seen across most
of the Northland this afternoon as widespread highs in the 40s
to low 50s are being observed, though cooler temperatures in the
30s to low 40s remain immediately near Lake Superior. Several
daily high temperatures are again in jeopardy of being broken
this afternoon.
Visible satellite and traffic cameras show a broad expanse of
fog expanding southwestward across western Lake Superior. Some
question remains as to how far southwest it gets and how long it
hangs around given southerly to southwesterly winds for this
evening and tonight. For now we have issued a Dense Fog Advisory
for the North Shore through this evening, that may need to be
expanded.
Cloud cover will be on the increase from the west this afternoon
into tonight as a low pressure system moves into northern
Ontario and a weak low pressure moves through central Minnesota
into northwest Wisconsin. There is some dry air in the lower
parts of the atmosphere for southern portions of the area, but
expect to see light precipitation move across areas along and
north of the Iron Range this evening into tonight. With warm
temperatures to start, rain should be the main precipitation
type. However, from late evening into tonight, cooling surface
temperatures combined with a warm nose aloft should introduce
some very light snow and potentially even some very light
freezing rain/drizzle. Accumulations of snow and ice will be
minimal at a trace to a couple tenths of an inch of snow and up
to a very light glaze of ice. The best potential for ice to mix
in will be in the tip of the Arrowhead tonight.
Monday - Early Tuesday:
Surface high pressure in the region should keep weather dry to
start the work week. Very mild temperatures continue Monday
daytime Tuesday, with widespread highs in the upper 30s to 40s
on Monday and 30s to low 40s on Tuesday. Already increased
temperatures a few degrees for Monday, but given trends the last
few days they may need to be increased further.
Impactful Winter Storm Late Tuesday - Thursday:
A deep trough over the Pacific Coast early this week will eject
a potent, negatively-tilted shortwave trough across the
northern Rockies daytime Tuesday and into the Upper Midwest
Tuesday evening through early Thursday. This system will have
access to plenty of moisture feeding in from the Pacific near
Baja California and western Gulf. ECMWF EFI/SOT highlight the
Northland for a signal of both unusually high QPF and snow
potential, particularly north of the surface low tracks.
Forecast PWAT values of 0.5-0.75" are possible, being near or
above the maximum of sounding climatology. Surface low pressure
will also be deep, forecast to be near or at the CFSR
reanalysis climatology for this time of year. The signal for strong
synoptic forcing for ascent with a large deformation band
associated with the northern and northeastern sides of the
surface lows should bring notable widespread precipitation to
the Northland with this system from Tuesday evening through
early Thursday.
Today`s 12Z runs of the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble have started to
show a more elongated area and/or two distinct surface low
pressure centers by Wednesday; one in west-central/central
Minnesota and the other in central/east-central Wisconsin as can
be seen in the WPC surface fronts forecast. The general trend
in the surface low track clustering was once again every so
slightly northward, introducing the potential for a wintry mix
even farther north than previous forecasts.
Still some north-south wiggle room in the forecasts of the exact
track of the surface low pressures, so precipitation type will
play a big factor for the predominant types and amounts of
precipitation in southern portions of the Northland. The latest
forecast still favors snow as the primary precipitation type
for most of the Northland, but the potential for a wintry mix
(snow/rain and light freezing rain/sleet) is about 20-60% for
the Iron Range south into the South Shore). Inland northwest
Wisconsin in most likely to primarily see rain Tuesday evening
and night before switching over to a rain/snow mix daytime
Wednesday and then all snow by wednesday night. Moderate to
high precipitation rates are expected with this system, with
the highest precipitation rates currently forecast for Tuesday
evening into Wednesday morning. Additionally, very strong east-
northeasterly winds off of Lake Superior late Tuesday and
Wednesday will aid in terrain and lake enhancement to
precipitation rates and snow totals for the North Shore. Once
the surface low passes through late Wednesday/Wednesday night,
the precipitation type should transition to all snow as we get
into the cold sector of the low, with precipitation gradually
coming to an end sometime on Thursday.
Despite some uncertainty remaining regarding the northward
extent of the mixed precipitation, confidence has increased
enough regarding heavy snowfall potential to issue a Winter
Storm Watch for most of north-central and northeast Minnesota,
and Douglas and Bayfield Counties in Wisconsin. The latest run
of the NBM shows 40-95% probabilities from Tuesday evening
through Thursday of >6" of snow for all but southern Cass to
Pine County in northeast Minnesota and the northern half of
Douglas and Bayfield County in Wisconsin. Given these higher
probabilities, a Winter Storm Watch was issued for these areas
from Tuesday evening through midday Thursday. Inland northwest
Wisconsin. Shovelable snow probabilities (with >2" as a proxy)
are only below 50% in northwest Wisconsin due to a better
potential for primarily rain there when precipitation rates will
be highest. There is also concern for much higher snow totals
along the North Shore due to terrain and lake enhancement.
Probabilities of 12" or more of snow are 50-90% along the North
Shore, highest near Silver Bay.
Strong easterly winds will also be present late Tuesday through
Wednesday morning, which could produce pockets of visibility to
1/4 mile or less at times in much of northeast Minnesota and
parts of the South Shore. Near-blizzard conditions are also
possible during that timeframe for the North Shore, particularly
MN-61, due to wind gusts up to 40-50 mph screaming in off of
Lake Superior. Hazardous travel conditions are expected for much
of the Northland Tuesday evening into Thursday morning, with
the worst impacts for the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning
commutes due to a combination of wet, heavy snow, strong winds,
and low visibility.
Additional Snow Potential Late This Week:
The main deep trough over the western CONUS is then progged to move
east into the Rockies late Thursday/early Friday and then into
the central CONUS Friday into Saturday. Ensemble spread remains
wider regarding surface low tracks with this late week system,
but there has been a slight northwestward shift in the surface
low tracks over the past few model runs. Therefore, the
probability of another round of snow for the Northland late
Thursday through Friday has increased. However, confidence
remains low regarding snowfall amounts with this second low
pressure system, though several inches of additional
accumulating snow can`t be ruled out if the Northland becomes
situated in the northwestern precipitation shield of the surface
low. As for temperatures, there is high confidence we will see
temperatures cool off to near-normal values for mid-February
late this week into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Aside from some dense fog along portions of the North Shore in
the lower terrain near Lake Superior, looking at plenty of VFR
conditions and mostly sunny skies today. Cloud cover increases
out of the west this afternoon into tonight. Low pressure in
Manitoba/northern Ontario and a weak low moving into central
Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin tonight will bring some light
rain this evening, and a brief, light wintry mix to the
Arrowhead late this evening and tonight. INL would be the main impact
with potential MVFR conditions. Also can`t rule out some light
rain late this evening/early tonight at HYR but the potential is
less than 20 percent. The wake of the precipitation could introduce
MVFR to IFR fog/ceilings at INL tonight into early to mid Monday
morning, as well. Most sites also have low (20 percent or less)
probabilities of seeing patchy fog tonight, but confidence in
occurrence is too low to include in most TAFs with this
forecast given cloudy skies overnight.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 356 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
The fog bank continues to expand southwestward in Lake
Superior, so the Marine Dense Fog Advisory was expanded to
include all nearshore areas through 10 PM CST. Expansions to
the advisory may be needed into tonight if the fog holds on
longer than currently forecast, possibly into Monday.
Light winds and minimal waves through Monday. Northeast winds
will ramp up Tuesday ahead of an approaching low pressure
system. Gales are very likely across the Near Shore waters
starting late Tuesday afternoon/evening through Wednesday night
with potential for storm force winds along the North Shore
Tuesday evening into daytime Wednesday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for MNZ020-021.
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday
morning for MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-035-037.
WI...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday
morning for WIZ001-002.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ140>146-
148-150.
Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Wednesday night
for LSZ140>144.
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ142.
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday
morning for LSZ142.
Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon
for LSZ145-146-148-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Rothstein
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
