Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
041
FXUS63 KDLH 150539
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1239 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A strong low pressure system will bring heavy snow, gusty
winds, and some blizzard conditions to parts of the Northland
late this afternoon into Sunday night with some lingering
snow into Monday.
- This will be an exceptionally rare and impactful storm for
parts of interior northwest Wisconsin where snow totals
around two feet and blizzard conditions at times are expected.
- Cold temperatures Monday morning with wind chills of -20F.
- Warmer temperatures on Wednesday and through the end of the
work week with off and on precipitation chances.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Current Conditions and Tonight`s Weather: Mostly sunny skies are
found across the region, except to our south where higher clouds are
starting to stream in from the west associated with the incoming
snowstorm. The main fgen snow band is expected to expand into the
region from southwest to northeast tonight.
The Storm - Changes to the Setup:
There have generally been minimal changes to this forecast;
just minor tweaks to snowfall amounts and winds here and there.
There are still some things in question, though. The exact
location of the heaviest of the heavy snow from the deformation
band is not completely certain, but will be most likely to hit
Price County and those surrounding it the hardest with 2-3"/hr
rates come Sunday morning. Low pressure is still expected to
take a northeasterly deviation from its otherwise nearly due
easterly path on Sunday as the upper level trough causing it to
deepen becomes negatively tilted somewhere over the Quad Cities
of IA/IL Sunday evening. As such, the deformation band will
orient from West-to-East to Southwest-to-Northeast, leading to
prolonged heavy snowfall over northern Wisconsin. There will be
a fairly sharp cutoff to snowfall amounts to the north, but
probably not as tight as previous storms that approach this
magnitude since we won`t have a high pressure center to our
north funneling in very dry air.
The Storm - Changes to Expected Conditions:
There are some forecast caveats for the northern extent of this
storm. In the Twin Ports and northern Douglas County, we will
have east to northeast winds for much of Sunday before they turn
north to northwest as the low moves off Sunday
afternoon/evening. CAMs continue to hint at a convergence band
of snow streaming in off Lake Superior and affecting parts of
the North Shore from Silver Bay and south into the Twin Ports
and Douglas County. We will also have the potential for some
lingering gravity wave snow over the usual places in
Douglas/Bayfield counties into Sunday night as winds turn
northwesterly and we hang on to some residual moisture and snow
showers. The convergence band that should affect the Twin Ports
should be fairly transient, so enhancement from this should be
noticeable, but not extreme. Overall, we might see some
snowfall rates to around an inch per hour at times, but not for
the entire storm. We will therefore hang on to the Winter Storm
Warning since snowfall rates are generally not expected to be
extreme.
Elsewhere into northwest Wisconsin, we have decided to upgrade
Winter Storm Warnings to Blizzard Warnings. This is exceptionally
rare for interior northwest Wisconsin. For historical context,
Burnett and Washburn counties have never been warned for blizzard
conditions and Sawyer and Price counties have only been warned once
for blizzard conditions in the past ~20 years. What triggered the
upgrade is the expected combination of very heavy snowfall rates
that may meet or exceed 2-3" per hour at times Sunday morning
combined with widespread wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range. There is
some uncertainty on where exactly the heaviest of those snowfall
rates will be, but most likely this will land in Price County and
into Sawyer/southern Ashland/Iron counties. This may extend west
into Price county. There is expected to be a little displacement in
the heaviest snow and winds such that the heaviest snowfall rates
are expected later tonight into Sunday morning, then as winds switch
to more northerly, wind speeds will pick up and lead to plenty of
blowing snow as the snowfall rates start to taper off. With that
said, there should be several hours where blizzard conditions will
be met for many places that have been upgraded. Some places may not
see true blizzard conditions or just see them briefly, but we expect
conditions to be close enough for most folks to refer to this storm
as a blizzard. While snowfall rates are generally not expected to be
as intense in Bayfield/Douglas counties for most of this storm,
lingering gravity wave and convergence snow banding would correspond
better with the strong winds midday Sunday into the afternoon there,
so blizzard conditions are quite possible.
Total snowfall amounts from this storm are expected to be very high,
with totals around two feet in Price County and surrounding areas.
It`s definitely possible that some higher amounts could be observed
approaching 30 inches.
No major changes have been made for the forecast for the rest of
Minnesota. Headlines will remain as they were from the last update.
Late Sunday night into Monday - Wrapping up the Storm:
Wraparound snow and some lake-enhancement along the South Shore
are expected to persist through Monday morning. Northwest winds
will still be gusty, but should start to lessen gradually
through the day. A few inches of additional snow accumulation
are expected especially Monday morning before it wraps up going
into the afternoon and early evening.
Tuesday through Friday:
Expect some cold northwesterly flow for this time of year,
keeping temperatures below freezing and definitely feeling like
winter Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to fall
below freezing Monday night with wind chills down into the teens
and 20s below zero, especially north. At this time, it looks
like we may be just warm enough not to need cold weather
headlines, but it`s possible that could change.
A quick-hitting clipper could bring some light snow (probably an
inch or two) around Tuesday evening. Warm air advection and broad
ridging behind this is looking promising to bring spring weather
back to the Northland by the end of the week. We should see highs in
the 40s and possibly approaching 50 by Thursday and Friday. With the
fresh snow and quick transition back to warmer weather, some minor
hydro concerns may develop with ponding of water and some rises in
rivers and streams. We will also go back to the diurnal freeze-thaw
cycle, which should result in slick spots overnight and during the
mornings as snow and ice melt and refreeze.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
A strong low pressure system is moving south of the Northland
tonight, and will bring moderate to heavy snowfall to much of
the area including forecast terminals south of the Iron Range.
Winds will increase from the east over the next couple hours and
start to back to the north as the low moves to our south. Wind
gusts overnight up to 25kts are possible, increasing to 35kts
after 12Z.
Light to moderate snowfall is falling from BRD to HYR, with the
northern extent now expanding northward toward DLH. While HIB
might see a short period of light snow, impacts will be minimal
there.
From BRD to DLH to HYR, expect IFR/LIFR conditions overnight
though at least Sunday morning as snowfall reduces vis to less
than 1 mile. As winds increase, so will the chances of blowing
snow that could further reduce vis. Conditions begin to improve
at BRD this afternoon as snow ends, but MVFR cigs and strong
winds will persist through the end of the period. Moderate
snowfall could persist at DLH into the early afternoon given
northeast winds over lake providing some enhancement along the
North Shore and head of the lake. Vis at HYR will remain at 1
mile or less through the forecast period as snowfall continues
across Northwest Wisconsin Sunday evening.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings were added to the western Lake
Superior nearshore waters for Sunday morning through early
Monday afternoon as a combination of gale force winds and wave
heights over 10 ft combine with temperatures in the teens to 20s
to produce heavy freezing spray.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A major winter storm is expected over the
next couple days. Expect moderate to heavy snow and blowing snow
starting tonight through early Monday. Gales are expected to
develop quickly later tonight with northeast winds and some
storm force winds are expected around Grand Marais to Grand
Portage. A Storm Warning has been issued Sunday night through
Monday. Winds shift to northerly going into Monday with gales
starting to lessen through the day Monday. Winds are still
expected to be gusty into Monday night, and Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed. Winds become light for
Tuesday. Over the next couple days, wave heights will be very
high as well with heights over 10 ft expected for most places
lingering into Monday when winds start to gradually lighten up.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ020-
025-035.
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Monday for
MNZ020-021.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ033-
034-036.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.
Blizzard Warning until 4 AM CDT Monday for MNZ038.
WI...Blizzard Warning until 4 AM CDT Monday for WIZ001-006-007.
Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for WIZ002-008-009.
Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT Monday for WIZ003-004.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 AM early this morning to 7 PM CDT this
evening for LSZ140.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM
CDT Monday for LSZ140>142-147-148-150.
Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT Monday for
LSZ140.
Gale Warning from 4 AM early this morning to 1 AM CDT Tuesday
for LSZ141.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ142.
Gale Warning from 4 AM early this morning to 4 PM CDT Monday
for LSZ142-147-148-150.
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Monday for
LSZ142.
Gale Warning from 4 AM early this morning to noon CDT Monday
for LSZ143>146.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 AM this morning to noon
CDT Monday for LSZ143>146.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...Rothstein
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
