Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
630
FXUS63 KDLH 080004
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
604 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Brief, rapid clearing in skies this afternoon. A quick moving
Clipper system will bring a brief round of very light rain and
snow this evening into tonight.
- Much warmer on Sunday as breezy southwest winds push afternoon
temperatures into the 50s for most locations. Light
precipitation, mostly in the form of rain, is also in store
for Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
- The Northland remains in an active zonal flow pattern for this
coming week into early the following week as several low
pressure systems are poised to move through the Midwest and
bring additional rounds of precipitation, mostly in the form
of snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026
Today - Tonight:
Seeing rapid clearing of some low stratus this afternoon from
west to east as drier air works into the area with the edge of
some surface high pressure. Expect temperatures to top out in
the mid 30s to low 40s by late this afternoon, warmest in our
west.
The period of benign weather will be brief, however, as a
quick-moving Clipper system moving east across Manitoba and far
northwest Ontario will bring a surface trough/cool front through
the Northland. There is enough moisture with this system to
produce 2-4 hours of quick, light accumulations of rain with
some snow mixed in for any one location this evening and
tonight. Look for total liquid precipitation amounts of 0.10" or
less, highest in far northern Minnesota. Snow amounts will be
minimal to nil, generally a half inch or less in the Arrowhead
and less to no accumulations elsewhere. Gusty southwest winds
will also develop ahead of the front this evening and turn
westerly tonight.
Sunday - Monday:
Substantial warming arrives on Sunday as breezy southwest winds
and warm-air advection usher in high temperatures in the 50s for
most of the area. Some mid/upper 40s are possible in the tip of
the Arrowhead and we could even see near 60F in the Brainerd
Lakes and far southern portions of Pine to Price counties.
Another quick-moving Clipper system will slide just north of the
International Border Sunday afternoon into Sunday night,
bringing another round of precipitation--mainly in the form of light
rain--for areas generally along and north of US-2 late Sunday
afternoon and Sunday night. Temperatures start to cool behind
this Clipper system on Monday, with highs in the 30s to low 40s
in much of northeast Minnesota and mid 40s to low 50s in the
Brainerd Lakes east to northwest Wisconsin.
Monday night - Wednesday:
While the Upper Midwest will be in a largely zonal flow pattern
aloft to start the work week, a broad trough in the Pacific
Northwest on Monday will amplify as it slides eastwards into the
Northern Plains by late Tuesday and Upper Midwest on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, a cutoff low currently over the Baja California
region is forecast to open up into a trough on Tuesday and merge
with the base of the amplifying northern-stream trough on
Wednesday. At the surface, this will kick off lee cyclogenesis
in Colorado on Tuesday, with a strengthening Colorado Low then
tracking through the mid-Mississippi Valley on Tuesday night and
into the lower-Great Lakes on Wednesday. Additionally, a
surface low tracking along the International Border in
Montana/North Dakota on Tuesday will then move through the
Northland vicinity on Wednesday and funnel some moisture into
our region from the southern low pressure.
As a result of the interplay between these two systems, a
frontogenetically-forced band of precipitation is expected to
develop in the Northland Monday night into Tuesday, potentially
have a lull in precipitation late Tuesday, and then finish with
another round of precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday in a
broader region of wrap-around precipitation as the two low
pressure systems interact with each other more. Both rounds of
precipitation should have fairly favorable forcing for ascent,
with the Tuesday night to early Wednesday round having the best
mid- and upper-level dynamics/divergence. With surface
temperatures closer to normal during this early week timeframe
(i.e. highs in the 30s to around 40 and lows below freezing),
most of the precipitation should fall in the form of snow,
though there is some uncertainty as to whether any rain can mix
in with the snow on daytime Tuesday for far southern portions of
the Northland given an above freezing temperature forecast.
Expect accumulating snow during the early week timeframe, though
remains uncertainty regarding snow amounts, locations of the
heaviest snowfall amounts, and the north-south placement of the
tight transition line between all snow and a rain/snow mix on
Tuesday. The latest NBM snowfall probabilities and forecast
plumes show fairly wide spread in the snow accumulations, with
non-trivial tails in probabilities for several inches of snow.
NBM snowfall probabilities for Monday evening - Wednesday of >2"
range from 10-90%, with the lowest probabilities of 10-40% in
far north-central Minnesota and along the rain/snow transition
gradient in far southern portions of northwest Wisconsin.
Probabilities peak in the 80%+ range for the Twin Ports, North
Shore, and South Shore as easterly to northeasterly winds lend
at least some enhancement to accumulations from terrain and Lake
Superior. The Twin Ports and North and South Shores are also
where probabilities of >4" are also highest at 40-70%. Non-
trivial higher amounts are also possible in the near-Lake
Superior locations, with >6" probabilities still in the 15-35%
range, but tied to exactly where the highest snowfall rates in
the snowband set up. Clearer details on this system to come in
the next day or so.
Active Pattern Continuing:
Global ensembles are in fairly good agreement on a more potent
Clipper system moving either near the International Border or
through the Upper Midwest Thursday night and Friday, with the
potential for moderate to heavy banded snow on eastern and
northern areas of the surface low track that could impact
portions of the Northland depending on the exact track of the
surface low.
Model spread widens with lower confidence in surface weather
features towards mid-March. However, with a largely zonal flow
pattern continuing aloft, expect the active weather pattern to
persist beyond next weekend into at least early the following
week with more precipitation chances.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 604 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026
BKN MVFR ceilings at HYR should scatter out by 01-02Z. VFR
elsewhere early this evening. A quick-moving clipper system
moving west to east across the region this evening and tonight
will bring a brief 1 to 3 hours of light rain to much of
northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Temperatures near
freezing could lead to light snow mixing in at times at
HIB/DLH/HYR. Minimal to no snow accumulations expected. Could
briefly see MVFR conditions with the precipitation, and some
MVFR ceilings late this evening and early overnight at INL.
Gusty winds up to 30 kt and widespread low-level wind shear
ramp up this evening and tonight, with the gusty surface winds
persisting on Sunday at 18-25 kt. Low-level wind shear
diminishes by mid-Sunday morning. Another round of light VFR rain
is possible late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, mainly in
north-central and northeastern Minnesota.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 234 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026
West winds of 10-15 knots will back to southwest late this
afternoon, with winds strengthening this evening and tonight as
the pressure gradient increases in association with a passing
Clipper system to our north. Timing for the Gale Warnings and
Small Craft Advisories remain unchanged. The Gale Warnings
begin at 8 PM this evening for the North Shore north of
Taconite Harbor and in the Outer Apostle Islands, where gusts
up to 35-40 knots are expected late this evening and tonight.
Waves will build to 4 to 8 feet overnight. Small Craft
Advisories are in effect for the remainder of the nearshore
waters into Sunday. Winds briefly diminish below 25 kt late
Sunday afternoon and evening, then increase out of the west
Monday night and linger along the North Shore into Monday
morning before diminishing for the rest of Monday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM CST Sunday for LSZ140-141-150.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST Sunday for LSZ142>146-148.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Rothstein
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
