Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
452
FXUS63 KDLH 051135
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
535 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong winds and snow will come to an end later today.
- More light snow early Friday. Less than an inch of snow
accumulations expected for most.
- The next impactful system will be a clipper later this
weekend. Mixed precipitation is expected before switching
back to all snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 429 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
Low stratus across the area is producing widespread flurries for the
Northland. Lingering gusty winds will keep snow blowing near the
ground and across roads. As a high pressure moves south into the
Midwest, the stratus should thin and the strong winds and lake
effect snow will end as winds decrease and shift westerly to
southwesterly late this afternoon. This high pressure will quickly
scoot further south overnight and a couple weak shortwaves will
bring light snow to far northeastern Minnesota and portions of
northwest Wisconsin Friday morning and again Friday night. The first
shortwave will be a drier system, so accumulations are expected to
be less than an inch from both systems for most, with around an inch
of snow expected for the Arrowhead by Friday afternoon. The second
shortwave will cause snow to fall primarily in the Arrowhead and in
northwest Wisconsin near the UP Friday night into Saturday morning.
These snow accumulations will be a bit higher from more moisture
available throughout the column. However, there is a small chance
(~15%) for mixed precipitation depending on how far to the south and
west the precipitation reaches. Some model soundings show a
significant warm nose developing early Saturday due to warm air
advection from the west. However, this is a minority of the models,
so leaving all snow in the forecast for now.
Since the Northland remains on the south side of the shortwave
Saturday, a warm air mass will settle over the Northern Plains and
bring above average temperatures up to 10 degrees to the region.
Most areas will reach above freezing both days, which could lead to
ice formation overnight wherever snow melts.
Sunday, an upper level trough across the Northern Rockies will make
its way east and bring a large system to the Northland.
Sunday evening and overnight, the area will be in the warm sector of
the low, and the southern half of our area will likely (60%) see
rain or mixed wintry precipitation for a short time period at the
first onset of precipitation. However, this will switch over to snow
behind the cold front throughout Monday morning. It is uncertain
where the freeze line will be at this time, though there is pretty
good consensus from the global models that it will be near the
middle of the Northland before the cold front moves through.
As the large upper level low is slow to move to the east, another
trough will move in basically right behind Sunday`s trough and bring
another blast of cold air aloft. This will not only bring back
temperatures a few degrees cooler than normal, but will lead to
another round of light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. This
second trough is fast moving, so accumulations should not be too
impactful.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 528 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
The stratus deck over the Northland is thinning, and should
fully become VFR this afternoon under a high pressure. Have
added TEMPOs for most of the morning to cover the possible
lowering and heightening of ceilings with the thin stratus.
Winds will decrease throughout the morning as well. A low
pressure system will bring more light snow starting early Friday
morning, and will affect INL, HIB, and DLH. HYR may be impacted
later in the morning.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 429 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
Gales continue this early morning, and will slowly decrease
throughout the morning as a high pressure moves over the region.
Winds will back to the southwest tonight behind the high pressure
and increase with gusts up to 25 kts. These conditions will be
hazardous to small craft and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed late tonight into Friday morning. More chances for light snow
along the shores of Lake Superior are expected throughout the early
weekend.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
WIZ003.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for
WIZ004.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for LSZ121-140>148-
150.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for
LSZ140>147-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
