Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
803
FXUS63 KDLH 281139
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
539 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered snow showers continue this morning. Localized
visibility reductions and a quick dusting of accumulations are
expected.
- Lake effect snow continues for Iron County, but may finally
come to an end through the day today with drier air cutting
off snowfall production.
- The next chance of snow through this weekend for areas from
from Brainerd to Two Harbors and southeast, with the best
chance (60%+) across NW WI. Locally higher snowfall amounts
are possible for the South Shore.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 444 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
It is another morning of stratus and flurries that will not
quit, under weak cyclonic flow and enough moisture trapped
beneath the low level inversion to generate these flurries.
These should finally shut off as the surface ridge axis which is
currently over the eastern Dakotas slides east to over the
Northland later today and tonight. The models keep drying these
up, but will not be surprised if we need to keep extending them
until that surface ridge actually pushes far enough east. Have
included them through this morning for now. Lake Effect snow
continues for the South Shore within this regime of flurries. I
expect this to continue until the wind trajectory finally sends
the convective rolls away from the South Shore this evening.
However, with gradually drying conditions and weakening winds,
the snowfall rates have been much weaker and this trend should
continue.
Saturday into Sunday is our next chance for accumulating
precipitation. A potent shortwave moves across the Rockies
tonight, causing a surface low to develop over southeast CO,
which then swoops across the Kansas plains, then turning
northeast and arriving into Lower Michigan by Sunday morning.
This system will bring a broad area of snow across the northern
Plains into the Great Lakes region tonight through Sunday. The
bulk of this system will pass to our south, but we are looking
at some light snowfall accumulations across our southern
counties Saturday and Saturday night. It will also generate
another round of Lake Effect snowfall for the South Shore. In
fact, the high resolution models are implying we will have a
decent convergent band that should set up and affect much of the
South Shore region, but may also affect the Twin Ports Saturday
and Saturday night. This signal is pretty smoothed out for now
to account for the potential different positions of this band,
potentially producing some localized moderate to heavy snowfall.
A ridge of high pressure builds into the area early next week,
which should bring a period of quiet but colder weather for at
least a couple days. The forecast is currently for well below
normal temperatures for early next week, with some single digit
low temperatures. Sunday night into Monday, and again Monday
night into Tuesday. There are some indications that we may get
another shortwave and trough axis to move across the area about
the middle part of next week. We are currently carrying some
slight chance to chance pops beginning Wednesday through the
rest of the week, with moderating, though still below normal
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
A large area of MVFR ceilings lingers across the Northland this
morning, with persistent flurries or snow showers. The snow
showers may bring a brief period of lowered visibilities, but so
far have remained VFR. These showers will continue this morning,
but slowly decreasing in coverage and intensity as a ridge of
high pressure and a little drier air moves into the area.
However, MVFR ceilings may lift to VFR by late afternoon or
early evening depending on location. Northwest winds have been
slowly diminishing, with speeds of less than 10kts expected to
linger through the remainder of the TAF period. Late tonight,
another round of light snow moves into the area, affecting KBRD
after 10z. Have only put in MVFR ceilings for now, but lowered
visibilities are possible as well.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 444 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Northwest winds continue to diminish today as high pressure
builds into the region. Currently, we have Small Craft
Advisories lingering into this morning, but as winds continue to
drop, these will expire by 10 AM. An approaching low pressure
system will cause winds to veer to the northeast on Saturday,
only to swing back northwest and increase for Sunday. We should
have a period of stronger wind gusts which may necessitate
another round of Small Craft Advisories on Sunday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LSZ140-
141-147-148-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
