Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
624
FXUS63 KDLH 030853
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
253 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very fluffy light snow today may total up to around an inch
for many places. (Confidence: High)
- A messy, quick-moving system will bring snow and possibly some
light freezing rain Sunday into early Monday morning.
Accumulating snow with brief heavy snowfall rates around an
inch per hour are possible. (Confidence: Medium)
- Warm weather is expected next week with occasional chances for
mixed precipitation.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026
Light snow is finally starting to be reported in north-central
Minnesota this morning as dry air near the surface saturates.
Expect a swift-moving upper-level low to pass through this
morning and keep light snow falling through the morning. There
is not a lot of change to what`s expected with this from
previous updates. There is not a lot of QPF, but temperature
profiles are nearly isothermal in the DGZ, so efficient dendrite
production should be happening. Snow should be very light and
fluffy, and may total up to around an inch for many places. The
light consistency of the snow should make it pretty easy to
shovel or sweep off surfaces.
Brief high pressure passes through tonight, and low temperatures
should get a little nippy in the single digits below zero.
The next weather-maker arrives on Sunday as a potent, but
quick-moving low moves out of South Dakota into southern
Minnesota. Not a ton of change with this update really, but the
main thing is that there does still remain some uncertainty on,
essentially, how far west the heavier snow accumulations will
be. Strong ascent and saturation are looking to develop right
over the Northland Sunday afternoon, and when we have systems
that develop overhead like that, there`s lower confidence in
snowfall amounts and impacts for some places. In this case,
that area of higher uncertainty is around and just west of the
Twin Ports. That said, there is starting to be some more
consistency among ensemble members that this location should be where
snowfall rates increase pretty dramatically Sunday afternoon
and then continue east.
Once snow does develop, we could see some fairly impressive
snowfall rates as forcing for ascent should be pretty strong
owing to warm air and moisture advection ahead of the low and
strong mid-level support. A caveat to snowfall amounts will be
warm enough air aloft to result in riming, potentially a little
bit of graupel, and even perhaps warm enough for some light
freezing rain/drizzle around Brainerd at the tail end as
precipitation moves east. So, lower SLRs could mean slightly
lesser amounts. I do think ~1"+/hr snowfall rates are certainly
possible once the snow gets going Sunday afternoon. The quick-
moving nature of this will mean that snow will only be falling
for a few hours, but with potentially impressive accumulation
rates when it does come down.
Right now, NBM probabilities for 3" or more are around 30-60%
basically from Duluth to points east. Some 3-6" snowfall totals
are certainly possible generally around the periphery of Lake
Superior. WPC 24-hour probabilities of >4" of snow range from
around 10% around Duluth to near 50% in Hurley. The snow will
end from west to east by early Monday morning.
Into Tuesday, the train of lows continues with potential for
more snow or mixed precipitation around Tuesday. A bit of a
winter thaw is expected mid-week with warm air making its way in
from the south and west. There could potentially be some fog at
times at night as we melt a bit of the newly-fallen snow.
Towards the end of the week, ridging starts to move east and we
should get into a southwest-to-northeast flow pattern. This
pattern is favorable for larger storm systems to develop, and
indeed there are some signals for active weather later in the
week that could impact parts of the upper Midwest. Whether or
not it affects the Northland specifically is still in question.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1142 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026
Dry air in place is keeping snow from making it to the ground,
but eventually the air is expected to saturate and light snow
should fall at most, if not all, terminals. BRD may be on the
edge and may not see much more than flurries. Elsewhere, a very
light and fluffy snow should bring some MVFR visibilities and
probably ceilings as well through the morning. There is
uncertainty on exactly when snow may start falling this morning
since it depends on how quickly the air can saturate, but most
guidance suggests this will happen in the next few hours. Snow
is expected to end gradually late morning to around noon with
ceilings scattering out to VFR. Expect light winds below 10 kt
through the period.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 250 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026
Some quick-hitting light snow is expected today with light west
to northwest winds. High pressure moves in briefly tonight,
keeping winds light and variable. A more potent storm system
arrives Sunday and winds will become southeasterly. It is
possible that there could be some brief blustery winds up to
around 20 kt Sunday afternoon and night, especially along the
North Shore. Localized 25 kt gusts that may warrant Small Craft
Advisories can`t be ruled out (~10% chance). Wind speeds will
decrease Monday morning as low pressure departs the region.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
