Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
548
FXUS63 KDLH 050604
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1204 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog is expected again tonight. Dense fog possible at the Twin
Ports off Lake Superior. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for
the Twin Ports until noon Thursday.
- A Colorado low will bring a mix of precipitation, with a few
rumbles of thunder possible during the day. Snowfall expected
Friday night.
- A roller coaster of temperatures continue throughout this
week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 541 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026
Fog and low stratus rolled southeastward off of Lake Superior
within the past hour. Visibility dropped to less than 1/4 mile
at DYT and 1/4 mile at SUW. DLH was at 1/16 mile as of 530 PM.
We issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the Twin Ports area until
noon Thursday. We will likely need to expand the advisory later
tonight. The timing and area of the extension is yet to be
determined. Radiational cooling and daytime max dewpoints in the
middle to upper 30s should result in fog becoming widespread
later tonight. The main question is whether surface winds will
remain strong enough to mix the boundary layer.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026
Weather conditions across the Northland will remain relatively
quiet through this afternoon as fog from this morning continues
to dissipate. However, this clearing will be short-lived. As
winds turn to the northeast off Lake Superior tonight, moisture
will become trapped near the surface. This will cause patchy dense
fog and freezing fog to reform across much of the region, with
the most significant visibility reductions expected near the
head of Lake Superior and the Twin Ports.
Fog will likely linger through much of Thursday morning before
slowly lifting. Temperatures on Thursday will stay mild inland,
but the North Shore will see much cooler conditions due to the
onshore breeze. Our attention then shifts to a powerful spring
storm system developing over Colorado. This low-pressure system
will track toward the Great Lakes, bringing a variety of weather
hazards to our region starting late Thursday night and continuing
through Saturday morning.
Rain will spread over the area early Friday morning. In
northwest Wisconsin and as far west as the Brainerd Lakes,
enough instability may exist for a few rumbles of thunder Friday
afternoon and into the evening. Along the higher terrain of the
North Shore, a layer of warm air aloft could lead to a period
of freezing rain before temperatures fall, but latest trends
show that window becoming short, so a clean transition from rain
to snow is more likely with this system as colder air moves in
Friday night. While many areas are expected to see 1 to 3
inches of slushy accumulation, we are closely monitoring the
potential for a narrow band of heavy snow depending on the track
and the strength of the system. If this band develops, some
areas in northern Minnesota could see up to 8 inches of snow by
Saturday morning. Additionally, the combination of rain and
melting snow will create significant runoff, leading to ponding
of water in low-lying areas where the ground remains frozen.
Conditions will turn cooler on Saturday, though temperatures will
stay above freezing. Another warm-up is expected early next week,
with highs returning to the 40s and 50s on Sunday and Monday. A
more significant cold air mass is then projected to settle over
the area by the middle of next week, bringing temperatures back
closer to seasonal normals along with continued chances for
active weather.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1204 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026
Stratus and fog has developed over most of the area as of
issuance time, and will continue to spread to affect all
terminals over the next hour. The worst conditions have
developed at KDLH, with VLIFR visibility and ceilings with
onshore flow from Lake Superior. Elsewhere, ceilings are LIFR,
with visibilities range from IFR and LIFR. Expect the poor
conditions to persist through the night and into Thursday
morning. KBRD and KHYR should improve to MVFR ceilings and VFR
visibilities for several hours during the afternoon, before
deteriorating once again this evening. The sites farther north
ceilings should not improve to any better than IFR, even as
visibilities improve to VFR as well. KDLH should improve to IFR
visibility, but LIFR ceilings. All sites to deteriorate once
again during the evening hours. During the TAF period, east to
southeast winds to continue through the period.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 228 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026
Relatively quiet conditions will persist through this afternoon
on western Lake Superior with waves under 2 feet. Fog is
expected to redevelop tonight across western Lake Superior.
Some areas may be dense. Northeast winds will increase
significantly tonight and Thursday to 20 to 25 knots with gusts
up to 30 knots. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect this evening
until tomorrow afternoon. Waves will build to 4 to 8 feet,
especially along the North Shore and the Twin Ports.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ012-018>021-025-
026-033>038.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ020-021-
037.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ001>004.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for LSZ121-
140>148-150.
Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for LSZ142.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for LSZ142.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Huyck
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...KML
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
