Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
556
FXUS63 KDLH 051152
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
552 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of dense fog will persist through the morning before largely
retreating to the North Shore and the Twin Ports area.
- Winter Weather Advisory for freezing drizzle continues. This
may need to be extended into tonight as onshore flow does not
let up until midnight
- Colorado Low for Friday will bring some thunderstorms and
rain. Any snowpack that sees heavy rain or multiple storms may
lead to ponding water in low-lying areas where ground is
still frozen.
- Snow will filter in from the west with some freezing rain as
cold air wraps around late Friday afternoon and evening.
Total snow accumulations remain less then 2"
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026
Current Conditions:
Widespread dense fog and areas of freezing drizzle are the main
highlights to start things off this Thursday morning. Rewinding a
satellite loop all the way back to yesterday we can see the region
being attacked on all fronts from stratus. Southerly winds across MN
have a stratus deck that extends all the way into northern IA. More
stratus was lingering across the International Border and into the
Northern Plains. Yesterday afternoon we saw easterly winds overtake
Lake Superior leading to more stratus and fog swooping in from the
east. And now the region is largely blanketed with stratus and fog.
The easterly winds off of Lake Superior have added some upslope
component into the equation which has been capable of producing some
drizzle. The cold air off the Lake quickly dropped temperatures to
below freezing and this drizzle has led to some light ice accumulations.
Today:
Foggy conditions will linger through much of the morning before
largely eroding across most of the region. However, easterly winds
along Lake Superior will continue to share its influence with the
neighboring land with at least a 60-80% chance of fog staying put in
the Twin Ports and up the North Shore. Mixed in with this fog we
will continue to see periods of drizzle. Our Winter Weather Advisory
that was hoisted for freezing drizzle is set to expire at noon.
Temperatures will still be borderline on the freezing mark and with
onshore flow continuing this Advisory may need to be extended. The
RAP 275K isentropic surface has been handling the freezing drizzle
the best and it would suggest the ingredients will remain in play
till midnight. The only mitigating factor may be the overall strength
of the onshore flow which should diminish this afternoon but won`t
completely go away. This may only lead to freezing drizzle being less
widespread and hanging closer to the shoreline.
Friday:
Widespread precipitation returns to the Northland as a Colorado Low
moves into the Great Lakes Region. As is typical with these types of
lows they will establish a gulf connection allowing for higher
PWATs to be transported into the Northland. The deep moisture
plume protrudes into NW WI with some PWATs around 1" placing it
in the 99.5 percentile of the NAEFS climatology. With it still
being March we will get to sample a little of everything across
the Northland in regards to precipitation.
Activity may start as early as Friday morning where an inverted
trough is projected to be moving across the Red River Valley and
enter our western counties. Weak MUCAPE aloft could lead to a few
rumbles of thunder in the morning but CAMs have really been waffling
back and forth on producing anything with this boundary. The better
forcing and precipitation chances arrive in the afternoon as the
system moves into IA. The warm front will be advancing north
through the day with ample isentropic forcing for ascent out
ahead of it. Mid level lapse rates increase to 7C/km with some
MUCAPEs around 100-200 J/kg. This pairing could produce some
elevated thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected at this
time. The warm front looks to just barely stay out of the
Northland with the better ingredients for severe weather staying
south of us in the primary warm sector. Although it is worth
noting, the latest HRRR run has the warm sector moving into
Price county. The primary concern for this system will be how
the rain interacts with our melting snowpack. This may lead to
runoffs and ponding in low-lying areas where the ground remains
frozen.
Cold air wrapping around the system will see snow start to fly
across our north and northwest in the late afternoon and evening.
There will likely be a few transitions zones of snow, snow/rain,
freezing rain, and rain. These zones will continue to migrate
east through the overnight period with snow eventually winning
out by Saturday morning with the additional help of diurnal
cooling. Snow amounts have trended down with the extreme
outliers largely eliminated. Snow amounts are largely 2" or
less. The best corridor for 1-2" extends from the Brainerd Lakes
Region up through the Arrowhead and the North Shore including
the Twin Ports.
Despite only being 48 hours out from the onset of the Colorado Low
the two ensemble families of the GEFS and EPS still have some
noticeable disagreements. While both have fair agreement on the low
track through northern IA by Friday noon the spread thereafter is
quite noticeable. The GEFS continues to remain the most aggressive
with keeping the low strength and pulling large amounts of QPF into
the region. QPF plumes have come down a bit on the GEFS side with
the deterministic remaining the most extreme of the solutions. Timing
and strength of the departure remain highly contested which is
problematic due to some of the strongest synoptic forcing expected
to move through in the overnight hours. An upper level trough will
move in phase with the Low. This pairing along side a strong
low level FGEN band setting up may lead to some banded precipitation.
The question will be if this band sets up in the cold sector or
the warm sector.
The Weekend and Monday:
The pattern still remains active through the weekend but impacts are
not expected to be as widespread. Saturday morning will see the
departure of the Friday system with high temps recovering back into
the 40s. Warmer still as we move into Sunday with highs climbing
into the 50s and possible 60s away from Lake Superior. A couple of
low pressures moving across Canada may brush northern MN with some
light rain/snow but model agreement remains low with the NBM only
carrying around 20% for PoPs.
Tuesday:
Another system may be brewing for Tuesday. Cluster analysis has
great agreement with a cut off low over Baja late Monday moving
inland which may instigate some activity across central CONUS. Still
a wide array of solutions in ensemble low tracks but most feature
some low coming out of the Rockies. Track still remains highly
variable.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 552 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026
Stratus and fog lingers over the area this morning, with the
worst conditions at KDLH, with IFR visibility and LIFR ceilings
with onshore flow from Lake Superior. Elsewhere, ceilings are
LIFR, with visibilities ranging from MVFR and IFR. Expect the
poor flying conditions to persist for several more hours this
morning, before conditions slowly improving for several hours
this afternoon. Conditions may get to MVFR or even VFR for KBRD
and KHYR. For sites farther north, ceilings should not improve
to any better than IFR, even as visibilities improve to VFR. All
sites to deteriorate once again during the evening and
overnight hours. East to southeast winds to be strongest with
gusts up to 20kts during the daytime today, before diminishing
tonight.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 326 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026
Enhanced easterly flow continues across Lake Superior with Small
Crafts in effect until this afternoon. Fog has also engulfed the
Lake and while the current expiration time is for this afternoon
this may need to be extended. The latest model guidance is quite
pessimistic and conditions may not improve until Friday when we see
precipitation moving in from a Colorado Low. As this low departs on
Saturday we will see some strong winds across the Lake once again as
southwesterlies begin to stream. Gales will also be possible with
the North Shore having the best chance at needing a Gale
Warning.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ012-018>021-025-
026-033>038.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ020-021-
037.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ001>004.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ001.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for LSZ121-140>148-150.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for LSZ121-
140>148-150.
Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for LSZ142.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for LSZ142.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...Britt
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
