Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
649
FXUS63 KDLH 251721
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1121 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet weather is expected for the majority of today.
Precipitation chances increase in the late afternoon.
- Freezing rain mixed with some snow tonight may lead to an icy
morning commute for Friday. Temperatures will warm to above
freezing in the afternoon.
- Another system is setting up to move through on Saturday
bringing a wintry mix to the latter half of the day and into
the overnight hours.
- Cold air slams into the area for Sunday with very windy
conditions expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Current Conditions/This Morning:
Most of today will remain relatively quiet, with a surface
ridge axis over the area this morning, which gradually shifts
east through the course of the day. Temperatures rise to highs
in the mid 20s to low 30s today. East to northeasterly flow at
the surface will allow for enough lift to create the stratus
that has formed over northwest Wisconsin early this morning. As
winds veer into the southeast this afternoon, that stratus will
be swept into northeast MN, and as moisture begins to move into
the area ahead of tonight`s system, we should begin to see light
precipitation develop over the Northland, especially along the
North Shore.
Christmas Evening and Overnight into early Friday:
The late Christmas Day through Friday system is a weak low
pressure system and upper level shortwave that develops over the
High Plains of Wyoming and then slides generally east across
South Dakota and Iowa and then continue east through Friday.
This system pushes an inverted trough across Northern MN and WI
late tonight into Friday morning. With only a weak surface low
well to the south of the Northland, forcing will be driven
primarily by the shortwave aloft and isentropic lift. Most of
the area should see measurable precipitation, with the main
concern being precipitation type. A warm nose aloft will set the
area up for freezing rain/drizzle. Areas around the Brainerd
Lakes will see the least amount of precipitation, but is most
likely to be primarily freezing drizzle/rain. As we look farther
northeast, precipitation amounts increase, and there is a band
from around Lake Winnibigoshish and Leech Lake, east/southeast
across the Twin Ports and into much of northwest Wisconsin where
roughly one to two tenths of an inch of ice is possible. These
areas may also see accumulating sleet overnight. North of the
Iron Range and into the Arrowhead, it transitions to mostly
snow, though there may also be some mixed precipitation in
there. Cook county will see the most snow, with up to 3 inches
of snowfall possible. This afternoon and early evening the
incoming moisture will have to saturate down through the much
drier lower levels, causing most of the precipitation to hold
off until the evening hours. Between the ice accumulations, the
mixed ice and snow, and the holiday, have decided to issue a
Winter Weather Advisory for all of the Northland, starting late
this afternoon or early evening, continuing overnight before
ending from west to east Friday morning. Temperatures remain
somewhat mild on Friday behind this system, with highs getting
up into the 30s nearly everywhere.
This Weekend:
There will be a follow-up system on Saturday into Sunday, which
is also going to be a wintry mix mess, with another strong low
level warm moist flow pushing into the area on Saturday. This
wil push temperatures well above freezing on Saturday, and with
a similar synoptic layout as the Christmas day system, we will
start out with a wintry mix on Saturday before cold air moving
in behind the inverted trough axis switches things over to snow
before it ends Sunday night. Accumulations continue to look
light at this time, with snowfall of less than 3 inches. This
system escorts in an arctic front which will cause temperatures
to fall across the Northland all through the day on Sunday
before dropping below zero Sunday night.
Early Next Week:
Temperatures will remain below normal into Monday and Tuesday
next week, with highs on Monday in the single digits to around
10 above. Another clipper will dive across the region on
Tuesday, which may bring some light accumulating snow. While
temperatures rise into the teens to low 20s on Tuesday, we slide
back below normal for Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Deteriorating flight conditions as we head into the afternoon
and overnight hours. Current radar shows a swath of snow aloft
over northern MN unable to reach the surface. Cloud cover is
extensive with large areas of IFR currently being observed.
These ceilings may briefly improve this afternoon, but our next
wintry system is set to move through this evening which will
quickly lower ceilings once again. Warm air in the mix will lead
to a messy precipitation type battle across the region. The
latest high res that is coming in has increased the ice
production with most of the region expected to see at least
0.05" of ice an NW WI likely seeing at least 0.10" of ice.
Precipitation will move out tomorrow morning but LIFR clouds are
expected to linger into the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 440 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Northeast to east winds today will strengthen through the day,
even as they slowly veer to southeast by late afternoon ahead of
an approaching low pressure system. Wind gusts have already
started to rise into the 20 to 25 knot range, and should
strengthen further into the 25 to 30 knot range for this
afternoon and evening before they decrease again overnight. This
will cause building waves along the North Shore, where waves may
approach 8 feet for the afternoon and evening hours. While gales
do not look likely, Small Craft Advisories have been issued for
most of the near shore waters through tonight into early Friday.
Looking ahead, there is likely to be an extended period of
strong winds, with widespread gales Sunday afternoon and night,
and a 10 to 30 percent chance of storm force gusts. These strong
winds are likely to build large waves, especially along the
South Shore, along with concerns for freezing spray. Winds will
gradually weaken through Monday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST
Friday for MNZ012-020-021.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
Friday for MNZ010-011-018-019-025-026-033>038.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST
Friday for WIZ001>004-006>009.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CST Friday for LSZ140-141.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LSZ142>144.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST
Friday for LSZ142.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
LSZ145>147.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Friday for LSZ150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...LE
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
