Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
171
FXUS63 KDLH 171442
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
842 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered light snow continues for much of the Northland
today, gradually ending from west to east later this morning
and afternoon. Additional snow accumulations will be less than
one inch for most locations.
- Moderate to heavy snowfall lingers along the South Shore
through today, with heaviest accumulations in the higher
elevations near the lake. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect
for Iron, Bayfield, and Douglas Counties through this
afternoon, with a Winter Weather Advisory for Ashland County.
- Very cold temperatures are expected this weekend through next
week. Wind chills in the -30s to -40 are possible on Monday
morning, which is expected to be the coldest morning until
next weekend.
- There will be additional chances for light snowfall as a
series of Clippers move through on Sunday and again on Tuesday
night into Wednesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Morning radar and webcams over the Gogebic Range are not
matching what the high res models would suggest is moderate to
heavy snowfall. Taking a second look at some of the model
soundings show that the inversion top for the Lake effect snow
machine resides less than 5k ft. While this does look to improve
later this evening the low level winds will turn more
northwesterly pushing the activity into MI. With snowfall much
lower then previously forecasted we have decided to downgrade
the Iron County Winter Storm Warning to an Advisory. We will
still maintain the Winter Storm Warning for Douglas and
Bayfield as radar does show the gravity wave in full effect over
the area this morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Today:
Regional radar imagery and surface observations show persistent,
scattered light snow showers across most of the Northland early
this morning. These showers are being aided by some weak
negative omega values (i.e. upward motion) associated with the
backside of a low pressure system in the eastern U.P. of
Michigan that will slowly be departing today. Therefore, expect
these lighter snow showers and flurries to continue off and on
today before gradually ending from west to east across NE MN
later this morning and afternoon and in northwest Wisconsin this
evening as drier air briefly moves over the area behind the
departing low pressure and works to unsaturate the dendritic
growth zone. Snow amounts remain light for most locations, with
an additional dusting to around 1 inch of fluffy snow.
There will be an exception to the lighter snowfall amounts along
the South Shore of Lake Superior due to gravity wave and lake effect
snow impacts.
The South Shore lake effect snow will persist into this evening
due to the colder airmass moving in, with lake induced
instability of 150-350 J/kg as a result of 850 mb temperatures
around -14 to -18 degC over a Lake Superior surface temperature
of around +1 to 2 degC. Snowfall rates should generally top out
around 0.5"/hr this morning and afternoon, but the extended
duration of these rates should produce additional accumulations
of 3-6" in northern Iron County due to terrain enhancements and
an additional 1-3" in the remainder of Iron County and eastern
Ashland County, and around 1 inch or less for western and
southern Ashland County. Snow comes to an end late this evening
as winds turn westerly and shifts the lake effect snow north of
the South Shore. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for
Iron County with a Winter Weather Advisory for Ashland County
through this afternoon.
As for the gravity wave, high-resolution model guidance
continues to point to sinking motion along the North Shore and
frontogenesis/upward motion downwind of the North Shore terrain
ridge into northern Douglas County and the Bayfield Peninsula
due to northwest winds and lingering low-level moisture. This
pattern is forecast to persist through the daytime hours today
before waning this evening as drier air moves in from the
northwest and winds shift westerly. Expect additional 2-4" of
snow in northern Douglas and Bayfield Counties today due to the
gravity wave and some terrain enhancements. Winter Storm
Warnings remain in effect through this afternoon for Douglas and
Bayfield Counties.
This snow will be accompanied by northwest winds throughout the
day, with gusts to 15-25 mph for most locations.
Tonight - Monday:
Winds back to southwesterly tonight into early Sunday ahead of
an approaching Clipper system that will be quickly moving across
the Upper Midwest tonight into Sunday. There isn`t a lot of
moisture with this system, but the synoptic support for lift is
actually quite good. The expectation is for a quick round of
widespread lighter snow to move through with snow rates of
less than 0.5"/hr. With a very cold airmass in place, most of
the vertical temperature profile for this system will be colder
than the dendritic growth zone, so snow should be a very light
and finer consistency. Snow should come to an end for most
locations Sunday evening aside from the South Shore. Widespread
snow accumulations should range from 0.5-2" for most of the
Northland, with the best potential for >1" along and south of
the Iron Range (30-50% chance). As for the South Shore, very
cold 850 mb temperatures of -20 to -25 degC could produce lake-
induced instability values of 800-1000 J/kg, which is a large
amount of instability for lake effect snow. Therefore, this area
will be something to watch for several inches of snow
accumulations for Sunday into Monday, particularly in northern
Iron County due to both the lake and terrain enhancement could
produce some locally heavier snowfall rates.
In addition to the snow, this system will bring strong northwest
winds behind a passing cold front Sunday PM through early Monday
morning. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected for much of the
Northland and the North Shore could reach 35-45 mph. There is a
20-40% chance that wind gusts on the North Shore could exceed 45
mph and a Wind Advisory may be needed.
These winds will also combine with very cold low temperatures
dropping into the teens below zero Sunday night into Monday
morning to produce wind chills of -25F to -40F across the
Northland, coldest in northeast Minnesota. Cold Weather
Advisories will likely be needed.
Next Week:
Cold, arctic air lingers over much of the region much of the
upcoming week with single digit highs and lows in the single
digits to teens below zero Tuesday through Friday. Each night
and morning for Monday night, Wednesday night, and Thursday
night could see wind chills dip to -15F to -30F. Even colder
arctic air is in store for next weekend, with high temperatures
possibly below zero for Saturday and Sunday (40-80% chances,
highest in northeast Minnesota), lows in the teens to 20s below
zero, and wind chills possibly dropping below -30F once again.
Additional snow showers will be possible at times next week,
primarily late Tuesday into Wednesday. However, given limited
moisture availability and the very cold temperatures, snow
amounts should be lighter.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
MVFR conditions in stratus and scattered light snow showers
through the morning, with more sporadic snow showers but MVFR
ceilings persisting during the afternoon into evening,
especially in northwest Wisconsin. Lake-effect snow downwind of
Lake Superior should keep conditions MVFR to more IFR for the
South Shore in northwest Wisconsin. Winds will be breezy out of
the northwest today, then weaken briefly this evening and
tonight as they back to southerly before increasing again on
Sunday. An additional round of widespread light snow with a
Clipper system expands into northeast Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin from the west starting late tonight and expanding into
Sunday, with snow moving into BRD, INL, and possibly HIB
towards the end of the current 12Z TAF period. Conditions across
northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin deteriorate to IFR
or lower on Sunday with the snow after the end of the current
TAF period.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 354 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Northwest wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots persist into the
afternoon today, and linger towards early evening for Grand
Marais to Grand Portage before weakening tonight and backing to
southwesterly. Waves of 4 to 6 feet expected along the South
Shore. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all
nearshore zones except Chequamegon Bay. Downslope winds along
the North Shore could lead to brief and localized gales right
next to the shoreline from Silver Bay to Grand Marais through
about 9 AM CST this morning, as well.
A stronger cold front associated with a Clipper system will
bring an additional round of strong winds with gales possible
(50-80% chance) Sunday evening into Monday morning. A Gale Watch
has been issued. While gales may subside Monday morning, strong
winds persist through Monday into Monday night, keeping
conditions hazardous for small craft. These strong winds
combined with cold, arctic air will also pose a risk for
potential heavy freezing spray along the South Shore Sunday
evening into Monday morning.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ001-
002.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ003.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for LSZ140.
Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for
LSZ140>148-150.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for
LSZ141>148-150.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Britt
DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Rothstein
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
