Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
710
FXUS63 KDLH 102118
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
318 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lingering snow continues today with an additional 2 to 5
inches expected for the South Shore and Bayfield Peninsula
where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect.
- A transition to warmer temperatures Monday will be followed by
a messy mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain Tuesday morning
that may create slippery travel conditions.
- We are closely monitoring the potential for a large and
impactful winter storm arriving early next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
The clipper system currently pinwheeling through the Northland
continues to produce light snow across much of the region. While
most areas will see minimal additional accumulation through
this evening, the setup is turning much more favorable for the
South Shore. As the low pressure system exits to the east, winds
will shift to the northwest, drawing colder air over the
relatively warm waters of Lake Superior. This lake effect
process in Iron county and enhancement by terrain along the
Bayfield Peninsula, will likely produce localized totals of 2 to
5 inches. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Iron
County through early Sunday morning to account for these higher
amounts and reduced visibilities.
As the low departs, the pressure gradient will tighten
significantly. This will result in breezy conditions for all of
Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin tonight. Northwest
wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph are expected, which will usher in a
much colder air mass. After a period of unseasonable warmth,
tonight will provide a reminder of winter as wind chill values
drop into the single digits above and below zero.
Sunday looks to provide a brief break in the active weather for
the morning hours, with some sunshine possible between cloud
decks. However, the next weak clipper will slide across the Iron
Range and the International Border in the afternoon. This fast-
moving feature will bring another round of light snow, though
accumulations are expected to remain at or below one inch for
the Arrowhead and northern counties. Temperatures will begin a
brief recovery on Sunday, reaching the lower 20s.
The start of the work week features a more pronounced warming
trend as a warm air mass moves in from the southwest. High
temperatures on Monday and Tuesday are forecast to climb above
freezing, reaching the mid to upper 30s. This thaw will be
accompanied by a stronger closed low moving southeast from
Ontario. As this system interacts with the thermal gradient, a
messy mix of precipitation is expected. Model soundings indicate
a warm nose of air aloft over a shallow layer of sub-freezing
air at the surface early Tuesday morning. This increases
confidence in a period of freezing rain and sleet where
temperatures are near freezing and where rain transitions to
snow. While overall moisture with this system is limited, even
these light accumulations could lead to very slippery road
conditions for the Tuesday commute.
Looking further ahead, a much colder air mass will dive south
behind the Tuesday system, causing temperatures to plummet back
into the teens and 20s for the remainder of the week. Our
attention then shifts to a potentially significant storm system
toward the end of the work week. While model guidance shows a
wide range of possible snowfall totals, the general trend in the
data has been increasing toward a more impactful and organized
system for the Great Lakes region. We will continue to refine
the details on the track and timing of this system as the week
progresses.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
Snow showers continue under a low pressure center in the
Northland. Snow will continue to spin in our area into tonight.
MVFR conditions will be prominent for the afternoon and evening,
but snow showers could lower conditions to IFR. Conditions will
rise to VFR late tonight, but INL will have more chances for
snow after 18Z Sunday. Gusty winds also continue throughout the
day, up to 25 kts.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 304 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
Gale Warnings and Small Craft Advisories are in effect for
Western Lake Superior. Northwest winds will increase this
evening with gusts between 35 and 40 knots expected,
particularly along the North Shore from Grand Marais to Taconite
Harbor and the Outer Apostle Islands. Waves will build
significantly, reaching 4 to 7 feet near shore and up to 12 feet
in the open waters beyond the Apostles. Conditions will
gradually improve Sunday morning as winds back to the southwest.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for WIZ004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Sunday for LSZ121-142>146.
Gale Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for LSZ140-141.
Gale Warning until 11 PM CST this evening for LSZ147-148-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
