Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
056
FXUS63 KDLH 210544
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1144 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- After a warm weekend and early next week, a pattern shift to
more normal winter-like regime will occur starting Tuesday.
- There are mixed signals regarding the potential for more
widespread precipitation/snow next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
Deep low pressure aloft drapes a cold front through northwest
Wisconsin and the Arrowhead this afternoon. This front will move
eastward of the region into this evening and the observed low-
level stratus clouds clear tonight. The exception will be over
the Arrowhead and Borderlands where another push of moisture and
right exit region of a jet streak within the warmer-side of the
prime snow growth region keep a 20-30% chance of snow showers in
those areas tonight into Friday morning. Outside of a Trace of
snowfall in these far northeast Minnesota regions, no snow
accumulations are forecast.
After a near-normal Friday with temperatures in the low to
mid-30s, a largely dry pattern sets up for the weekend. Expect a
shift to southerly flow to aid another round of warm
temperatures for Saturday through Monday. Inland locations of
east-central MN and northwest Wisconsin are likely to see
upper-40s to maybe 50 F at some point this weekend or Monday.
A notable weather pattern shift remains expected next week ahead
of the Thanksgiving holiday. Global model guidance has trended
towards a bit earlier onset to precipitation for the Upper
Midwest over the last day, now beginning Monday evening for the
Northland. With the warm airmass in place, the first precip
chances next week remain as rainfall into Tuesday morning. A
colder airmass is very likely to be moving into north-central
U.S. areas Tuesday daytime. The result could be a switch over to
a wintry mix at some point Tuesday PM from northwest to
southeast. As the coldest air moves overhead by Wednesday, there
is high confidence in daytime high temperatures being near to
below normal Wednesday onward. If any snowfall is able to
accumulate at this time mid-next week, the very limited moisture
availability and more shower weather-type pattern favors a
localized pattern of light snowfall amounts at this time.
At this time, the primary takeaway is the high confidence on a
shift to below normal temperatures (think highs in the 20s to
around 30F) starting mid-next week. These conditions likely
warrant at least the consideration of digging out the winter
safety travel kit and keeping an eye on any travel route
forecast conditions. The less confident takeaway is on how any
wintry mix to maybe (30-40% chance) light snowfall may produce
any winter weather travel impacts on Tuesday or Wednesday. Keep
an eye on the forecast for your location at
weather.gov/forecastpoints to ensure the latest information is
available when finalizing travel plans next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
SCT to BKN MVFR cloud bases with some scattering stratus at HYR
through 07-08Z, then expect clear skies there the rest of the
overnight into morning hours. Some MVFR ceilings move into INL
from the northwest starting around 08-10Z and spread southeast
with time this morning. The potential for MVFR ceilings to reach
as far south as HIB and DLH is less than 50% for now, so have
kept FEW025 to SCT025 mention for those locations for now. This
MVFR stratus does eventually scatter out this afternoon. Do not
expect any light snow showers with these clouds as any trace
snow chances remain northeast of the terminals in the tip of the
Minnesota Arrowhead. Outside of these MVFR ceiling areas,
expect VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period with
light northwest winds becoming southerly Friday evening.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 209 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
A cold frontal passage results in continued gusty westerly winds
over the western waters into Thursday morning. The highest
confidence in prolonged gusty winds around 25 knots is over the
Outer Apostles Islands where a Small Craft Advisory was issued
from late tonight into mid-Friday morning. Winds decrease and
shift to northwesterly Friday afternoon before quickly shifting
again to southwesterly into Saturday morning.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for LSZ150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...NLy
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
