Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
142
FXUS63 KDLH 201108
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
608 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light rainfall today through Wednesday with rainfall amounts
ranging from one-quarter inch to three-quarter inches.
- Strong northwest winds Tuesday in the Brainerd Lakes to Leech
Lake region may gust to 45 mph.
- Dry, mild and mostly sunny Thursday into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025
High amplitude ridge axis over the Northland early this morning
quickly exits the region today as vertically stacked low
pressure moves in the ND/MN region. A period of gusty easterly
winds is forecast today with gusts to 30 mph possible out ahead
of a warm front lifting northward. With northwest Wisconsin
remaining in the warm sector (high temperatures in the low-60s)
and under dry low-level airmass this afternoon, minimum
relative humidity of 33-38% is forecast for areas east of US Hwy
53. When combined with those gusty southeasterly winds, the
potential for elevated fire weather conditions will be monitored
today.
An area of limited moisture lifts into central Minnesota mid-
day today and combines with mid-level frontal forcing to help
create a band of rainfall that will move east-northeastward
through the mid-day to early evening hours of far eastern
Minnesota, the Arrowhead and all of northwest Wisconsin. While
this rain band moves through, onshore flow into the North Shore
high terrain is very likely to aid in terrain-enhanced rainfall
rates this evening for Cook County with up to one-half inch
possible in that time period in the Tip of the Arrowhead. Behind
this rain band, a dry slot is expected to set up and highly
limit rain chances along and south of US Hwy 2 in the Northland
through the early overnight time period. As the low pressure
center rotates through far northwest MN into southern Manitoba,
the Borderlands keeps in a persistent showery rain regime as
wrap-around flow slowly works into north-central Minnesota
overnight.
A quick wind shift to westerly will be observed this evening
behind the passing cold front before another wind shift occurs
Tuesday on that wrap-around flow. A jet of low- level winds
progged at 50 knots on high- res guidance produces a 60-70%
chance of wind gusts to 45 mph in the Brainerd Lakes and Leech
Lake region of north- central Minnesota beginning pre- dawn
Tuesday and lasting into mid- afternoon. If this forecast trend
persists, a Wind Advisory may be needed in time for this region
for Tuesday.
Rain shower chances increase again Tuesday morning from
northwest to southeast into the afternoon hours as the low
pressure further wraps colder air into the region. These Likely
to definite rain shower chances last through Tuesday night and
slowly decrease Wednesday afternoon and evening from west to
east. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday are forecast to be
in the 40s with low temperatures in the upper-30s. Any snowfall
chances are highly limited to a wet, melting snow that is very
likely to yield no accumulations.
Beyond lingering South Shore lake effect rain showers Thursday
morning, a building high pressure system over the Central Plains
helps to create a drier weather pattern that last into the
weekend. This also will lead to moderating temperatures back to
or slightly above normal through Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025
Low pressure over the Northern US Plains moves a weak low-level
jet across the Upper Midwest this morning. There will be a few
hour period of low-level wind shear as this jet passes overhead.
Rain chances build first in north- central Minnesota before a
separate band of rainfall will bring an hour or two of light
rainfall to the Brainerd Lakes first late morning then north-
central Wisconsin later this early evening. During and ahead of
the rainfall today, southeast winds will gust 20 to 25 knots,
while a wind shift will occur to the southwest behind the band
of rain. Expect breezy westerly winds into the overnight hours
for most locations south of the Iron Range. As colder air
advects into the region after 21Z today, there will be lowering
ceilings areawide this evening and overnight...first to MVFR
for KINL and KHIB. Rain showers last along and north of the Iron
Range today and tonight for most of this TAF period. The next
more widespread round of rainfall moves in from northwest to
southeast after 06Z Tues.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025
For today late morning through Wednesday, expect a period of
multiple wind shifts and prolonged conditions hazardous to small
craft. A jet of strong easterly winds moves over the western
waters today and is forecast to create gusts of 25 to 30 knots
today. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for these
conditions. Winds begin to shift southwesterly this evening and
may decrease below Advisory conditions for some of the North
Shore temporarily overnight, while remaining gusty to 25 knots
over the Southwest Arm and South Shore. As winds pick up in
speed again Tuesday from another wind shift to northwesterly,
these off-and-on conditions hazardous to small craft kept the
Advisory in place through Tuesday morning at this time. With
those northwesterly winds last into Tuesday night, an extension
in time of this Advisory may to be needed into Tuesday night or
Wednesday. On Tuesday there is a 30% chance of localized gale
force gusts to 35 knots. At this time there are no specific
gale-related headlines in places, but is something that will be
monitored over subsequent forecasts.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM CDT
Tuesday for LSZ121-140>148-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...NLy
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
