Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
590
FXUS63 KDLH 102324
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
624 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Moderate to heavy snow amounts around 3 to 8 inches are
expected in northwest Wisconsin and locally along the I-35
corridor in far eastern Minnesota tonight into Wed AM.
- A strong clipper system is expected Thursday afternoon into
Friday morning. Expect accumulating snow, strong winds, and
blowing snow.
- Another strong storm may affect parts of the Northland over
the weekend.
- A diurnal freeze/thaw will likely occur through late week and
then much of the area may fall below freezing for early next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Clouds abound this afternoon, unless you`re up in International
Falls where the sun should be peeking through. Northeast flow
has kept some lake-effect flurries persistent today, though
coverage has decreased. Being this late in the season, there
isn`t much instability to work with to have much for impactful
lake-effect without any ongoing synoptic snow.
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY SYSTEM:
Going into late this afternoon and evening, we`ll have another
snow-making system impact parts of the Northland. Initially, it
looks like we should have an area of mid-level frontogenesis
kick off some banded snow over parts of northwest Wisconsin.
This frontogenesis will be fairly transient, and will eventually
weaken and blend in with broader synoptic lift from an upper-
level trough. With this, forecast snow amounts have increased a
bit over northwest Wisconsin such that some low-end warning
criteria amounts in the 6-8" range are possible for parts of
Price/Iron counties, and possibly locally in central Ashland
county as well with some lingering northwest flow on Wednesday
enhancing amounts a bit there. Headline decisions were a little
tricky in the Sawyer/Ashland/Iron/Price county areas since
expected snowfall amounts really hover around the 6" warning
threshold. Some areas within the warning may see a little less
than 6" and some areas in adjacent advisories could see
localized 6-7" amounts through Wednesday morning. Advisories
have been expanded slightly west to include all of northwest
Wisconsin as well given broad synoptic lift tonight that should
support some widespread 2-4"+ amounts across northwest
Wisconsin. All-in-all, a high-end advisory / low-end warning
snow event tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds will be a
little breezy, gusting to 20 mph, but blowing snow is not
expected to be a big concern.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY SYSTEM:
As snow moves out gradually on Wednesday, we can expect a break
in active weather until a very potent clipper system passes
through late Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Models
are coming into better agreement that this will deepen pretty
rapidly in our vicinity, bringing strong winds and the potential
for moderate to heavy snowfall. There are still track
differences, and the path the low takes could have pretty
noteworthy implications on impacts. A more northerly track that
brings the low center roughly over Duluth would pin the
warm/moist conveyor belt over the Arrowhead, leading to a
Goldilocks combination of synoptically-forced snow along with
orographic/lake enhancement. In this setup, 6"+ snow amounts
would be likely. If the low tracks further south, we should
still see some lake/terrain enhancement along the North Shore,
but with the best synoptic forcing a bit further south, leading
to more broad coverage of moderate snowfall accumulations. Winds
should be very strong with this system away from the low center,
so we can expect to see some blowing/drifting snow as well. A
warm nose could bring a bit of mixed precipitation to east-
central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. Overall, this one is
looking like a solid advisory-level event and possibly warning-
level event for some places, with the North Shore having the
highest probability (to around 50%) for seeing some 6"+ snow
amounts. The clipper is expected to exit pretty quickly to the
east midday Friday.
WEEKEND SYSTEM:
Another potent low pressure system could affect parts of the
region over the weekend. A southerly track is favored with this
one currently, which would bring more noteworthy accumulating
snow potential down towards the Twin Cities. With that said,
there`s still plenty of opportunity for this storm to shift a
bit further north and affect the Northland more, or shift
further south and leave us with minimal impacts. A fgen snow
band will be possible somewhere in MN/WI, but where exactly this
could develop is still unknown. Stay tuned for more information
on this one as the exact track of the low becomes more certain
over the next several days. Confidence is high that there will
be a storm, but low on where exactly the worst impacts will be.
OTHER WEATHER NUGGETS:
The main impactful weather systems in the next week have been
discussed above. In-between those, there will be a few breaks
where we may even see some sunshine. Notably, Wednesday
afternoon and Thursday morning. We can expect some above-
freezing daytime temperatures through the week, especially when
the sun shines. This will lead to some melting of snow and
refreezing overnight. After the weekend system, it`s looking
like we could see a few days of colder weather with highs
remaining below freezing into early next week. The freeze-thaw
cycle may lead to some slick surfaces, especially at night and
early morning.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Moderate to heavy snowfall brings widespread IFR to LIFR
conditions to terminals south of the Range tonight. Expect gusty
easterly winds to slowly decrease this evening for Lake Superior
shoreline terminals. The snowfall ends from 06 to 12Z Wed and
result in expected category changes beginning to improve then
towards 12-16Z. Northerly winds and dry conditions are expected
Wednesday late morning and afternoon.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Breezy conditions are expected with northeast winds into this
evening. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the head of
the lake and over to the South Shore through this evening for
gusty winds to 25 kt, but have been extended into Wednesday
morning for lingering wave heights greater than 4 ft, especially
for the Outer Apostle Islands and towards Saxon Harbor. Winds
become lighter through Thursday afternoon when another clipper
system moves in. Strong winds are expected with this clipper.
Conditions are expected to be hazardous for small craft for all
nearshore waters into Friday morning, and some gales are
possible for parts of the North Shore Thursday night.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for
WIZ001>003-006>008.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for WIZ004-009.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ142>147.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ148-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...JDS
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
