Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
650
FXUS63 KDLH 231124
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
524 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slight chance of some light snow or freezing drizzle Wednesday
morning.
- A larger, messy system could affect the area Dec 25-26. There is
the potential for rain, freezing rain, and heavy wet snow which
could affect holiday travel. The best chance for snow accumulations
of several inches or more is along the International Border and into
the MN Arrowhead, highest in Cook County.
- A second system could follow the first for the weekend with
another chance for mixed precipitation and strong winds.
- Above normal temperatures are expected through Saturday, with
a shift to Friday and Saturday being the warmest of the 7 day
period with widespread highs near or above freezing. Below
normal temperatures return Sunday - Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025
A fast moving weak clipper is just getting done brushing across the
International Border early this morning with sensible precipitation
pulling off to the east. As that system moves out a tighter pressure
gradient could lead to a short period of stronger northwest winds
this morning through mid afternoon, enhanced along the North Shore.
Have held off on any kind of a Wind Advisory for coastal Lake and
Cook Counties, though observations will need to be monitored for
possible issuance.
A very weak disturbance ahead of a push of WAA could bring some
light precipitation to the Northland Wednesday morning. Model
soundings are in decent agreement for a lack of low to mid level
moisture with this precipitation, so it could arrive at the ground
as freezing drizzle. Accumulations should be minimal but a glaze of
ice could be possible across the MN Arrowhead and NW WI along with a
little dusting of snow depending on just how stout that dry layer
ends up being.
We continue to see signals for several more impactful disturbances to
move over the region late this week and into the weekend. Both have
the potential to be messy with heavy snow, freezing rain, rain, and
strong winds.
ROUND ONE DEC 25-26:
Global models are in decent agreement regarding a fairly weak low
pressure system ejecting out of the northern Rockies and pushing
across the Central Plains and Midwest at the same time that a high
pressure moves tangentially across the Canadian Prairies and into
eastern Ontario with a following shortwave clipper moving along just
north of the International Border. This is a bit of a wonky synoptic
setup, not a classic Colorado Low or clipper system that might bring
a more predictable winter storm. The low pulling out of the Rockies
should be able to assist some West Coast atmospheric river moisture
in getting into the central CONUS which can then slam into the
aforementioned high pressure. Most deterministic guidance depicts
the precipitation shield as forming along isentropic ascent with
this boundary. Latest trends have shifted the placement of the
Ontario high pressure further southeast which has caused the modeled
precipitation/snowfall to fall more northwest to southeast rather
than west to east - and could put more of the Northland out of the
snow chances.
Outside of the frontal boundary, synoptic lift is not very
impressive which does lead to some uncertainty regarding just how
much mixed precipitation will be able to form for areas along and
south of the Iron Range. Still, there are pockets of dry air and
above freezing 850mb temperatures that are cause for freezing rain
concern and we`ve continued to carry ice accumulations from north-
central MN through the Twin Ports and into NW WI. The best chance
for snow accumulations of a couple inches or more runs along the
Borderlands and is maximized in the tip of the MN Arrowhead along
the North Shore. With easterly winds over Lake Superior,
lake/terrain enhanced totals are likely, especially in Cook County.
If these trends continue a Winter Storm Watch may be needed. Latest
trends also continue to bring high temperatures down slightly for
Thursday with much of the area actually staying just below 32F for
Christmas Day.
ROUND TWO DEC 27-29:
Model data has continued to suggest another disturbance pushing in
quickly behind the first through the weekend. The synoptics of this
system appear to be much more classic low pressure system with
attending warm, cold, and occluded fronts. The biggest question is
system track which will inform precipitation amounts and type, as
well as temperatures. Global models depict this system dragging a
more stout warm nose into the area which has caused Friday and
Saturday to now be our warmest days in the 7 day forecast. Also
depending on that track, we could see another round of mixed
precipitation with rain, freezing rain, and snow all possible
outcomes. However, ensembles have the low pressure center anywhere
from Lake Winnipeg to the Twin Cities on Saturday so we`ll leave a
discussion of the details to a day with better agreement. What is in
better alignment is that the departure of this system should bring
in a quick blast of arctic air with temperatures at least in the
single digits for the end of the weekend and into next week.
Despite the novel written above, its important to keep in mind that
these systems are still in Days 3-6 and we have yet to see
widespread, confidence inspiring run-to-run consistency, not to
mention that the whole plethora of high-res model guidance isn`t
even sampling these days yet. Uncertainty remains high and much
could change - stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 524 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025
A MVFR to IFR cloud deck is expected to push southeast across the
area through this morning, but for most areas guidance suggests
ceilings should lift around mid day to early afternoon. The only
exception would be INL where a MVFR cloud deck may stick around for
most of the day. Gusty northwest winds strengthen through this
morning, and should weaken through this afternoon and evening. Most,
if not all, terminals should return to VFR with calm winds by this
evening into Wednesday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 414 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025
Fairly calm southwest winds should turn to the northwest and
strengthen through this morning with gusts of 25-30 knots expected.
Along the North Shore, gusts of 30-35 knots are expected, with just
some isolated gale force gusts. Have decided to take the Gale Watch
to a Small Craft Advisory due to a slight decrease in wind trends
with the latest forecast and the potential for the highest winds to
stay over land. There are still some models that bring more
widespread gales to the North Shore later this morning, so this will
need to be monitored for possible upgrade. Winds quiet down this
evening with a fairly benign day Wednesday. Stronger easterly winds
move in Thursday. Looking ahead, there are chances for more strong
winds through the weekend with another passing system.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for LSZ121-
143>148-150.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
LSZ140>142.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Levens
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
