Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
633
FXUS63 KDLH 240523
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1123 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Clipper system for this evening through Tuesday will bring
widespread snow to most of the Northland. A Winter Storm
Warning has been issued for southern Cook County with Winter
Weather Advisories for the rest of the Arrowhead.
- A couple additional periods of light snow (10-30% chances)
later this week, mainly in northern Minnesota.
- Temperatures gradually increase midweek through Friday with
the high temps for Friday in the upper 30s to 40s, followed
by a sharp cooldown next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Today:
Temperatures have remained cooler today, expected to top out
this afternoon around 10F for much of the North Shore to teens
to around 20F elsewhere.
Surface high pressure that was centered over the region earlier
today is now sliding east, with a mix of clouds and sun changing
to increasing cloud cover from the northwest ahead of a Clipper
System that will be bringing widespread snow to the Northland
starting this evening and tonight. Winds on the backside of the
high pressure are now turning southeasterly, which is leading to
an end of light lake-effect snow along the South Shore. These
winds will also continue pushing a narrow convergence band of
lake-effect snow that is currently just north of the Duluth up
the North Shore through the remainder of the afternoon and
evening. The snow band put down 0.1" of snow in Duluth as it
moved through. Expect similarly light accumulations of 0.5" or
less as it moves up the North Shore.
Later this Evening - Tuesday Clipper System:
A potent, quick-moving Clipper system in the Canadian Prairies
this afternoon will dive southeast through the Northland on
Tuesday. While we are currently seeing dry air in the lower
portions of the atmosphere, expect gradual saturation of these
lower levels and light snow to start as soon as late this
evening, but more likely tonight as broad warm
advection/isentropic ascent precedes the arrival of the
Clipper. The most favorable synoptic forcing in support of
moderate to heavy snowfall rates of 0.5-1"/hr will be during
Tuesday morning when strong differential vorticity advection,
divergence aloft, and strong low to mid-level frontogenesis will
be coupled together. Given that this is a quick-moving Clipper
system, any one location should only see these higher snowfall
rates for a 2-6 hour timeframe, with the rates best along and
north of US-2 in northeast Minnesota and east of US-53 in
northwest Wisconsin. Several hours of snowfall rates of 1-1.5"
are likely for portions of the North Shore and higher terrain in
Cook County due to southerly winds off of Lake Superior and
terrain enhancement. Model soundings show a fairly narrow depth
of dendritic growth zone (DGZ) saturation, with most of the
thermal profile in the lower levels at warmer than -10C to -12C.
This should result in snow to liquid ratios that are more
typical for this time of year, not like the heavy, wet snow we
saw with the last winter storm last week.
Snow will end from west to east during the afternoon hours for
many locations as a strong cold front with the Clipper moves
through. However, there will be some steep low-level lapse rates
and lingering low-level moisture on the back side of this
system, which should support snow showers/flurries lingering
for northeast Minnesota and the South Shore Tuesday evening and
night before gradually waning towards late Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning as drier air moves in. Gusty southerly
to southwest winds ahead of the cold front early Tuesday
accompanying the higher snow rates Tuesday morning should lead
to periods of visibilities of 1/2 mile or less, especially in
the higher snow total areas of the North Shore. Therefore,
expect hazardous travel conditions for the Tuesday morning
commute. Winds shifting northwesterly Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night remain breezy before weakening into Wednesday, and
could lead to pockets of blowing lighter falling snow and
blowing of snow that has already fallen. While travel conditions
should improve by the evening commute, there could still be
slippery patches on area roadways, particularly untreated ones.
Slight adjustments were made to the winter weather headlines for
this system. The Winter Storm Warning for southern Cook County
remains unchanged, with snow amounts of 5-9" expected. Winter
Weather Advisories in southern Lake County and northern Lake and
Cook counties remain unchanged aside from slight upticks to
snow amounts, now in the 2-6" range, being highest in northern
Cook County where localized amounts to 7" also cannot be ruled
out. Central and Southern St. Louis County were also added to
the Winter Weather Advisory for forecast amounts ranging from 2
to 5 inches, highest in northeastern portions of the County. All
of these headlines go into effect at midnight tonight and last
until 3 PM Tuesday. A Winter Weather Advisory was also issued
for Tuesday morning through early afternoon for Iron County, WI,
due to snow amounts reaching up to 3-4" in that timeframe.
Lesser amounts of less than 3" are forecast for areas south and
west of the Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warning.
Mid Week - This Weekend:
Wednesday will be cooler in the wake of the Clipper system as
high pressure moves through. Precipitation chances remain
minimal to nil (15% chance or less in our southern counties) on
Wednesday as a low pressure system passes well to our south
from the Central Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
However, a few models do suggest a passing mid-level shortwave
and associated surface warm front/warm advection Wednesday night
into Thursday could combine with just enough moisture to create
low-end, very light snow chances (10-30%).
GEFS and the EPS ensemble members show good agreement in the
track of a low pressure system moving through Manitoba and
Ontario on Friday with the low pressure track staying north of
the International Border. Temperatures will become warm ahead of
this system, with highs in the 30s for Thursday and upper 30s to
mid 40s on Friday. Precipitation with this system is mainly
favored to stay north of the International border, but we are
carrying a 15-30% chance for precipitation in northern Minnesota
and the Arrowhead as this system moves through on Friday. In the
wake of the Friday low pressure`s cold front, expect a sharp
cool-down for the coming weekend as temperatures fall well-below
average for late February/early March.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
VFR conditions in place will lower through the early morning hours
as a clipper system approaches the area. Snowfall will begin to
arrive in the hours before sunrise with the heaviest snow expected
from around sunrise through mid-morning. Most of the snow will
depart the region by the early afternoon, but a few flurries may
linger into the afternoon. Snow will bring IFR visibilities to INL,
HIB, and DLH with MVFR elsewhere. Ceilings are expected to fall to
MVFR as well and remain there through the afternoon and evening.
Snowfall will be light and fluffy in character. Winds will start off
southerly and veer northwesterly through the morning as a cold front
moves through. Winds will be gusty with gusts to 20 to 25 knots. A
low level jet ahead of the cold front will lead to some LLWS at HIB
and BRD.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 351 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
A convergent band of lake-effect snow will continue moving up
the North Shore into this evening. For Tuesday, a strong
clipper system will move through the Northland providing
widespread snow. This system will bring with it gusty winds out
of the south on Tuesday that will then veer northwesterly behind
a cold front Tuesday PM into Tuesday night. Small Craft
Advisories have been issued for all the near shore waters for
tonight through early Wednesday. Gales are also not out of the
question with 30-50% chance along the North Shore late tonight
and Tuesday morning, and possibly along the South Shore Tuesday
evening and night. A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning has also been
issued for parts of the North Shore Tuesday morning.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ011-012-
019-020.
Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ021.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 2 PM CST Tuesday for
WIZ004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for LSZ140>142.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 6 AM to noon CST Tuesday for
LSZ140-141.
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST Tuesday for LSZ142.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 9 AM CST Wednesday
for LSZ143>146-148.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST Tuesday for LSZ150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...BJH/Britt
MARINE...Rothstein
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
