Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
189
FXUS63 KDLH 311148
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
548 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very light lake effect snow along the South Shore,
particularly near Ashland and Iron counties, will end this
morning.
- A quick-moving weather system brings widespread light snow
amounts of 1-2" for most of the Northland tonight into
Sunday, likely resulting in slippery roads for the second half
of the weekend.
- A warming trend begins today, with high temperatures rising
into the 20s next week and possibly into the 30s for
Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
Today:
Early this morning, much of the Northland is situated
underneath strong high pressure leading to clear skies and very
light to calm winds in northeast Minnesota. The combination of
clear skies and calm winds could lead to localized pockets of
fog through around sunrise this morning, but widespread fog is
not expected. Meanwhile, northwest Wisconsin has seen north to
northeasterly winds lead to low stratus this morning and even
some very light snow in north-central Wisconsin from Iron County
south to Price County. Little to no accumulations expected as
the snow should push off into Lake Superior as surface winds
switch around to southwesterly towards sunrise in northwest
Wisconsin.
There is also quite the spread in low temperatures expected for
early this morning, with upper-single digits to widespread teens
below zero for lows in northeast Minnesota under clear skies and
single digits above and below zero for much of northwest
Wisconsin due to the cloud cover. Some portions of far northern
Minnesota may even touch 20 degrees below zero. Minimum wind
chills early this morning shouldn`t be too far off from
temperatures due to calm to light winds, ranging from the single
digits to 20s below zero, warmest in northwest Wisconsin and
coldest in far northern Minnesota.
As the surface high pressure exits to our south and southeast
today, winds will swing around to southwest this morning and
then southerly for the remainder of the day. These winds
gradually increase as the day progresses, with gusts of 15-20
mph in northeast Minnesota this afternoon becoming more
widespread across the Northland to around 20-25 mph this
evening and tonight as a Clipper system approaches from the
northwest. A good chunk of the day will be sunny to mostly
sunny, but starting late in the day and evening we will also
see cloud cover increasing. The combination of southerly winds
and mostly sunny skies will warm high temperatures into the
teens to low 20s above zero. Also can`t rule out some very
light snow associated with a lake effect convergence band
briefly grazing nearshore portions of Cook County late this
morning and early afternoon due to the switch to southwesterly
to southerly winds. Little to no accumulations expected.
Tonight - Sunday Night:
Snow associated with the Clipper system looks to arrive around
or shortly after midnight in north-central Minnesota and then
expand eastward into the rest of northeast Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin tonight into Sunday morning. While overall
model consensus is for this to be a lighter snow event, a decent
signal for low-level (925 mb) frontogenesis tonight into pre-
sunrise Sunday morning for north-central and northeast Minnesota
could aid in moderate snowfall rates (0.25-0.5"/hr) for a few
hours at any one locations before the frontogenesis signal
wanes Sunday morning as the main snow band moves into northwest
Wisconsin. Light snow then continues for much of Sunday before
ending west to east Sunday afternoon and evening, with some
lingering very light lake effect snow in Iron County into Sunday
night. The timing of this snowfall could make any travel
tonight and Sunday morning slippery, with some reduced
visibility tonight and Sunday morning due to a combination of
the snowfall rates and gusty southerly winds, maybe even some
patchy blowing snow in open areas. Winds then weaken a bit for
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night while turning northwesterly
behind an eastward moving cold front with relatively mild
temperatures in the 20s for Sunday afternoon.
As for snow totals, expect most of the Northland to see 1-2".
There may be some localized pockets of 2-3" in portions of
north-central and northeast Minnesota where the aforementioned
moderate snow rates will be present for a few hours. Meanwhile,
portions of north-central Wisconsin may struggle to reach 1" of
snowfall due to daytime accumulations and being removed from the
area of stronger low-level frontogenesis and moderate snowfall
rates. Snow consistencies should be typical, not overly fluffy
with a snow-to-liquid ratio of 14-18 to 1 as there will be some
shallower saturation in the dendritic growth zone around 550-650
mb, but most of the saturated atmospheric profile will be warmer
than the dendritic growth zone from between 650 mb to 850/900
mb.
Next Week:
Most of next week will see the upper-level pattern remaining in
northwest flow with the coldest arctic air remaining in Canada.
Look for daily high temperatures to be in the teens to low 20s
for Monday and Tuesday in the wake of the Sunday Clipper system,
then turn even warmer for mid week with widespread highs in the
20s on Wednesday and many areas possibly touching the low to mid
30s on Thursday. Weak shortwave energy on Tuesday now looks to
pass south of the Northland, with a separate shortwave trough
moving across northern Ontario on Wednesday. At this time, both
of these systems look to be too far to our south and north,
respectively, to bring any light snow chances to the Northland.
Global ensembles then show a decent signal for a more prominent
Clipper system to track near the Upper Midwest/International
Border area on Thursday and then into the Great Lakes region
Thursday night and Friday. Ensemble low pressure center tracks
still have a decent amount of spread regarding where exactly
this system may track, with the ECE ensemble having slightly
tighter and more southerly tracks for the low pressure as a
whole relative to the GEFS. This will be something to keep a
close eye on going forward as global ensembles converge towards
a more concrete solution. A more northerly track would bring
warmer temperatures into the Northland on Thursday and introduce
the potential for some rain to mix with the snow, while a more
southerly track could put the Northland near or on the cold side
of the low pressure with all snow as the precipitation type for
Thursday and Friday and potentially in a banded snowfall region
for Thursday and Thursday night. Behind that system,
temperatures likely cool-off below normal once again for late
next week into next weekend as some form of arctic air moves
back into the region, though there remains a fair amount of
spread/uncertainty as to just how cold that arctic air will be.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 547 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
VFR conditions expected for most terminals until late this
evening/tonight for northeast Minnesota terminals until snow
arrives with a Clipper system. Northwest Wisconsin/HYR has
persistent lake effect IFR to MVFR clouds that should linger
into the mid to late morning before scattering out as southwest
winds push most of the cloud cover over Lake Superior and the
remainder scatters out. Satellite shows the western fringe
getting very close to DLH, but it will be a fine line this
morning as to whether MVFR ceilings can reach Duluth before
winds push the clouds over Lake Superior. Have opted to hold off
on MVFR at DLH for now. High to mid level clouds and increasing
southerly winds begin to return to northeast Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin from west to east this afternoon and evening
ahead of the Clipper system. Expect low-level wind shear to
also develop starting this evening for northeast Minnesota
terminals, and tonight for northwest Wisconsin/HYR. MVFR
conditions in the snow move into INL/BRD around or shortly after
midnight, spread east into HIB/DLH in the 06-09Z timeframe
tonight, and then into HYR near or just after the very end of
the current TAF period Sunday morning. Can`t rule out some IFR
conditions very late in the current TAF period at BRD and IFR
visibility and more widespread IFR visibility in northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin daytime Sunday.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 312 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
High pressure overhead will keep winds light through this
morning. However, winds back to southwest starting this morning
and increase later today into Sunday, being strongest tonight
into daytime Sunday with gusts of 15-25 kt. Confidence is
highest in reaching conditions hazardous for small vessels from
Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage early Sunday morning through
afternoon due to around 25 kt gusts and waves of 3 to 5 feet.
Confidence is not high enough for the remainder of the western
Lake Superior nearshore waters to see hazardous conditions for
small vessels as most locations should see 20 kt gusts with
only some occasional gusts up to 25 kt. Winds then turn
northwesterly behind a cold front starting Sunday night and stay
northwesterly into early next week with gusts generally
remaining at or less than 20 kt.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for LSZ140-
141.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Rothstein
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
