Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
230
FXUS63 KDLH 181146
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
546 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An Alberta Clipper moves through today bringing widespread
1-2" of snow. Higher amounts for northern Douglas and
Bayfield Counties of 2-4".
- Lake effect snow showers ramp up again for Iron county late
today into Monday. Totals of 3-7" are forecast for northern
Iron County.
- Strong northwest winds arrive this afternoon into early
Monday, with gusts up to 35 mph for most locations and up to
45 mph along the North Shore. Expect areas of blowing snow,
especially in the Brainerd Lakes and for the South Shore of
Lake Superior.
- Arctic air returns this evening into Monday morning with Cold
Weather Advisories across the region. Cold air lingers through
the work week with another bitter cold arctic surge of air for
Friday into next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Clipper System and Lake Effect Snow Today into Monday:
The next 24 to 36 hours will be an active period with several
weather hazards including accumulating snow and blowing snow,
gusty northwest winds, and very cold arctic air.
Conditions are currently quiet in the Northland as of very early
this morning with light south to southwest winds and mostly
cloudy skies. That will change as we progress through this
morning and today with an approaching Clipper system in
southern Manitoba quickly sliding through the Northland today.
There isn`t a lot of moisture with this system with PWATs only
around 0.15 to 0.2 inches, but we are looking at good synoptic
support for lift as widespread snow moves in. Snow is already
being reported in northwestern/western Minnesota, though there
is a bit of dry low/mid-level air in the Northland that will
need to saturate early this morning before snow can start
reaching the ground.
Forecast atmospheric temperature profiles show some portion of
the profiles in the dendritic growth zone for the first few
hours of snow this morning for northeast Minnesota and until
around midday in northwest Wisconsin that should help initial
snowfall consistency be a bit fluffier and support snow rates to
around 0.25"/hr. However, as the day progresses, snow
consistency should become a bit finer/lighter and less fluffy,
which should dampen snowfall rates a bit going into the later
morning to early evening hours. Snow should come to an end for
most locations by Sunday evening outside of the Arrowhead, and
then end in the Arrowhead and inland northwest Wisconsin by the
end of this evening. Snow lingers in the South Shore into Monday
due to gravity wave and ramping up lake effect snow.
Widespread snow accumulations should largely be 1-2" for most
of the Northland. The exceptions to this will be: 1) higher
totals due to gravity wave effects this afternoon into tonight
for northern Douglas and Bayfield Counties (2 to locally 4") and
2) northern Iron County in the Gogebic range (3-7" in the
northern half of the County) due to lake effect snow and
terrain enhancement. For Iron County this evening and tonight,
very cold 850 mb temperatures of -22 to -26 degC and steep low-
level lapse rates could produce lake-induced instability values
of 800-950 J/kg. This could aid in moderate to locally heavy
snowfall rates up to 0.5-0.75"/hr, though South Shore snow rates
drop off considerably on Monday morning as the Clipper system
shifts east. Lake effect snow in Iron County should linger
through much of Monday, but come to an end later Monday evening
and night as surface winds turn more westerly.
Strong, gusty northwest winds follow the ending of the clipper
snow this afternoon into early Monday morning. Wind gusts of 25
to 35 mph are expected for most of the Northland, strongest in
the Brainerd Lakes. Winds along the North Shore could gust up to
45 mph given a strong pressure gradient coupled with the surge
of arctic cold air this evening and tonight, where a Wind
Advisory has been issued. Given the strong wind threat, there
is also concern for blowing snow from the freshly fallen
snowfall that could reduce visibilities and cause some difficult
travel conditions, particularly in open areas around the
Brainerd Lakes. Because of the blowing snow concern, we have
issued Winter Weather Advisories for Cass, Crow Wing, and Aitkin
Counties today into this evening, though the main blowing snow
threat will be in the afternoon and evening. A Winter Weather
Advisory has also been issued for Iron County due to a
combination of the higher snow accumulations in northern
portions of the County and areas of blowing snow concerns. If
snow amounts trend higher than the current forecast with the
gravity in northern Douglas and Bayfield Counties, then
expansions to the Winter Weather Advisory for more of the South
Shore may be needed.
Cold Arctic Air This Week and Next Weekend:
As cold arctic air ushers in behind the Clipper this evening
into Monday morning, the combination of breezy winds and low
temperatures in the teens below zero will lead to wind chill
values of -25F to -32F in northwest Wisconsin and -30F to -40F
in northeast Minnesota. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect
for mid- evening through Monday morning across the Northland.
High temperatures on Monday will also struggle to reach 0F, with
daytime wind chills staying in the teens to 20s below zero.
A similarly cold night is expected on Monday night into Tuesday
morning with lows in the teens below zero and wind chills of
20 to 30 below zero as winds will be weaker. However, any
uptick in winds here could push wind chills colder and possibly
additional Cold Weather headlines.
Arctic air remains in place throughout the work week through at
least next weekend, but does moderate slightly midweek with
highs in the single digits to low teens above zero. An even
colder shot of arctic air arrives late this week through at
least next weekend, with generally lighter winds but highs below
zero by next weekend, overnight/morning lows in the teens to 20s
below zero, and wind chills approaching -30F to -45F, coldest in
northern Minnesota. This timeframe will likely need additional
cold weather headlines.
As for precipitation next week, another clipper late Tuesday
into Wednesday could bring additional light snowfall to the
Northland, though probabilities are only about 20-30% for an
inch or two of snow for the Brainerd Lakes into northwest
Wisconsin and even lower probabilities with northward extent.
Additional shortwave energy could bring some light snow late
Thursday into Friday, but confidence is low given model spread
and limited moisture to work with, so precipitation chances are
only 10-30%.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
MVFR ceilings in stratus at HYR to start the 12Z TAF set,
otherwise mainly VFR for much of the Northland to start.
However, conditions will quickly deteriorate later tonight this
morning from west to east as approaching snow from western
Minnesota associated with a Clipper system will drop ceilings to
MVFR, with MVFR to IFR visibilities. The IFR visibilities will
primarily be this morning and afternoon, though can`t rule out
some brief periods of LIFR visibility in snow at northeast
Minnesota terminals this morning. Visibility with the snow
improves from west to east during the afternoon into evening,
improving latest at HYR. Snow comes to an end by Sunday evening
for most northeast Minnesota terminals and mid to late evening
for HYR. Can`t rule out some broken VFR ceilings returning this
evening and tonight for northeast Minnesota terminals, but that
height of ceilings may be too optimistic (there is a 40-50%
chance those ceilings remain MVFR through the end of the 12Z TAF
period). Gusty northwest winds ramp up to 25 to 35 kt at the
tail end of and after the snow this afternoon into tonight. This
could lead to areas of blowing snow, particularly for terminals
with few trees or buildings in the vicinity.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 334 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Northwest winds will increase rapidly this afternoon into
tonight with gales expected for the North Shore this evening and
tonight on the backside of a Clipper low pressure system. Wind
gusts up to around 30 kt are forecast for the South Shore in
northwest Wisconsin, but occasional, brief gale-force winds
can`t be ruled out there this evening and tonight. Small Craft
Advisories have been issued for the South Shore in northwest
Wisconsin and a Gale Warning has been issued for the North
Shore. A cold, arctic air mass will also arrive with these
strong winds leading to heavy freezing spray along the South
Shore this evening into Monday morning. Winds remain breezy
through much of Monday into Monday night, but below Gale Warning
Criteria after Monday morning. Therefore, hazardous conditions
to small craft should linger until late Monday night.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
Monday for MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for
MNZ020-021.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for MNZ025-
033>036.
WI...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Monday for
WIZ001>004-006>009.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 9 AM CST Monday for
WIZ004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CST
Monday for LSZ121.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CST this
evening for LSZ140>144.
Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for
LSZ140>142.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
Monday for LSZ142.
Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for
LSZ142.
Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM CST Monday for
LSZ143-144.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight CST
Monday night for LSZ145>148-150.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM
CST Monday for LSZ145>147-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Rothstein
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
