Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
357
FXUS63 KDLH 131930
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
130 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered rain/snow showers this afternoon. Minimal snow
accumulations expected.
- A strong cold front drops through the region this afternoon
and overnight leading to a breezy night. A Wind Advisory is in
effect for the North Shore through Wednesday morning.
- Lake effect snow showers for the South Shore will continue
after the frontal passage. A Wintry Weather Advisory remains
in effect for Iron County through Wednesday morning where and
additional 2-3" snow is expected.
- Widespread snow chances (2-4") return Thursday and linger into the
weekend.
- Colder temperatures settle back in for the Northland later this
weekend and linger into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Current Conditions/Tomorrow:
Surface low pressure is moving into eastern Ontario this afternoon.
Satellite shows widespread cloudy conditions as the column of air
remains saturated. The radar is also still picking up some echoes
across the Arrowhead where weak forcing out ahead of an approaching
cold front is producing some rain/snow showers. This cold front
is expected to drop through northern MN this afternoon with dry
air aloft sweeping in behind the boundary. The 12Z suite of
guidance shows this cold front as being quite strong with
temperature advection around -45C/12hr. When we see a signal
like this it usually translates into some very gusty winds. This
forecast package has increased winds and issued a Wind Advisory
for the North Shore. The other tricky part with this front will
be whether we are able to generate any precipitation along its
boundary. With dry air quickly moving in behind the boundary it
may diminish the chances. But high res guidance would suggest a
small window where some snow squalls will be possible. For
northern MN this window is between 3pm and 6pm and for NW WI
this window is 5pm and 8 pm. However, the overall trend in the
guidance continues to lower the possibility of this taking
place.
Overnight, the strong cold front will dive through the Northland
leading to windy conditions. Lows will drop to below zero across the
International Border and into the single digits across our south.
Quite the abrupt turn around from the upper 30s and low 40s we
are seeing this afternoon. Northwest flow over Lake Superior
with the cold wind will also see lake effect snow showers across
the South Shore leading to an additional 2-3" before dry air
and northerly flow shuts the showers off tomorrow afternoon. The
rest of Wednesday will be quiet as surface high pressure will
dominate the region leading to sunny skies and highs in the
teens.
Late Week:
A low pressure originating from the Yukon is expected to cross the
Northwest Territories before sliding down Manitoba and into the
Northland. Current timing looks to bring the warm front through
Thursday leading to a round of snowfall. Along the warm front there
looks to be a strong FGEN ribbon around 925mb that may lead to a
strong initial onset of snowfall. There still remains a fair bit of
uncertainty with the low placement though. Surprisingly both
the deterministic Euro and GFS have the low over northern Lake
Superior Friday morning but looking at the rest of the ensemble
members show 3 separate clusters. A slower solution still over
southern Ontario, the northern Lake Superior option, and the
faster solution with the low already in southern WI. Needless to
say quite a bit of spread still. Specifics will have to be
ironed out later as we get a better handle on the low track, but
given the proposed solutions we can expect continued snow
chances through Friday and into the weekend. The latest NBM
guidance has brought snow totals down a little bit with this
package but the overall message and impact looks to be fairly
similar. Widespread 2-4" of snow, probabilities have lowered for
snowfall in the Brainerd Lakes region though.
Once the low from the Yukon moves out of the region this weekend we
will see a return to cold temperatures. An arctic air mass dives out
of Canada bringing 850 temps of around -25C to -30C. High temps will
struggle to get out of the single digits and our overnight lows may
trigger some Cold Weather Advisories. These frigid temperatures looks
to carry through into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1132 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
A low pressure moving across Ontario is bringing MVFR/IFR ceilings
across the region with some isolated snow showers. A strong cold
front is projected to drop south out of Canada this afternoon and
streak across the Northland overnight. This will lead to gusty winds
through tonight. There is a small window this afternoon where some
isolated downbursts of heavy snow will be possible. However,
confidence is not high and have introduced some PROB30s. If snow
showers do appear the strong winds will lead to VIS dropping
rapidly. Fortunately this will be short lived. Expect a return to
VFR tomorrow morning.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1252 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Conditions will deteriorate rapidly over Western Lake Superior this
afternoon. Small Craft Advisories are in effect this afternoon as
winds increase. By this evening, a Gale Warning goes into effect for
all nearshore waters with north winds gusting to 35-40 knots. Waves
will build significantly, reaching 4 to 7 feet, with higher waves
likely along the South Shore tonight. A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning
is also in effect starting late tonight as colder air interacts with
the building waves. While gales are not expected after Wednesday
morning, there will be plenty of wind and wave action for Small
Craft Advisories through the forecast period.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday for
MNZ020-021.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for WIZ004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LSZ121-
140>148-150.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Wednesday for
LSZ121-140>148-150.
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday for
LSZ142.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST
Wednesday for LSZ145>148-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt/Wolfe
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
