Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
308
FXUS63 KDLH 261145
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
545 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mixed precipitation which has fallen overnight, including
freezing rain and sleet will cause hazardous travel conditions
across most of the Northland early this morning.
- A second weather system arrives Saturday night bringing
additional freezing drizzle followed by heavy lake effect snow
potential in northwest Wisconsin on Sunday.
- Sharply colder temperatures and strong winds arrive Sunday
with wind chills dropping well below twenty degrees below zero
by Sunday night with strong northwest winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 438 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Current Conditions/This Morning:
Our winter system is pushing off to the east early this
morning, with only light lingering precipitation over northwest
Wisconsin and the tip of the Arrowhead. While snow is being
observed in the Arrowhead, northwest Wisconsin appears to still
be getting a mixture of freezing or liquid rain. Surface winds
remain out of the southwest for most of the area, showing the
inverted trough is still just west of the forecast area. It is
likely we are still getting some freezing drizzle where
visibilities have been reduced in fog over most of northern
Minnesota behind the more obvious radar returns of the freezing
rain. Between that and the continuing icy road reports we are
seeing, we have decided to maintain the winter weather advisory
this morning until visibilities and/or ceilings improve,
indicating the freezing drizzle is ending. Otherwise, we do
expect gradual improvement in conditions through the day today.
With the lingering moisture and light winds tonight, there is a
fairly decent signal for fog and stratus again overnight
tonight. Have included patchy to areas of fog for now, but
conditions may be worse than that if it does materialize.
This Weekend:
Our next weather system begins to affect the area on Saturday,
with an initial warm air advection wing of mostly
drizzle/freezing drizzle which continues into the evening hours.
Like this currently exiting system, it will be driven by a
surface low that moves east across the central plains, with an
inverted trough extending in our direction. Ahead of the
inverted trough, there is a lot of warm air that pumps up into
the region. We may get stuck in another period of low clouds and
drizzle overnight Saturday night. Surface temps will determine
whether it freezes or not. This will also keep temps above
normal for Saturday. As the inverted trough moves across the
Northland, cold temperatures will dive in behind it, and the
strong frontogenesis along the thermal gradient will help
generate another wave of precipitation Sunday and Sunday night.
Where this band sets up is likely to generate accumulating snow.
For now we are most likely looking at a band of at least a few
inches, but as this system shifts east we will also get some
lake effect bands which could drive snowfall amounts up along
the South Shore snowbelt areas Sunday night into Monday. The
cold air moving in behind this system will cause temperatures to
fall most of the day on Sunday, with overnight lows below zero
Sunday night, and some single digit high temps on Monday. The
strong winds with that cold air advection may also produce wind
chill values in the 15 to 25 below zero range Monday morning.
Next Week:
Temperatures will remain below normal through the early part of
next week, Another clipper will dive across the region on
Tuesday, which may bring some light accumulating snow. There is
another pool of cold air that slides into the area for the
latter half of the work week. Ahead of this it looks like there
will be another clipper, but this one may track to our south and
not bring any snowfall to the area. Temperatures will be well
below normal for Wednesday and Thursday, with high temps in the
single digits once again.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Flight conditions are poor as of issuance time, generally
IFR/LIFR, with fog and drizzle this morning. These poor
conditions are expect to linger for several more hours, with
gradual improvement expected after 17z, getting up to MVFR for
several hours this afternoon. Lingering moisture to contribute
to fog development by late evening. Visibility conditions in fog
are likely to drop to IFR, with ceilings lowering to IFR as well
by 06z, and remaining poor through the remainder of the TAF
period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 438 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
The southwest winds are gradually diminishing early this
morning, and will veer into the northwest at 5 to 15 kts by
later this morning. This will allow waves to also diminish this
morning. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for along the
North Shore until these waves subside. Winds will back back into
the southeast tonight and Saturday, for generally quiet
conditions on the lake. A front moves across the lake late
Saturday night into early Sunday, followed by an extended period
of strong northwest winds for Sunday, Sunday night and Monday
before they diminish again late Monday and Monday night.
Widespread gales are possible Sunday night and Monday, with a 10
to 30 percent chance of storm force gusts. These strong winds
are likely to build large waves, especially along the South
Shore, along with concerns for freezing spray.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ012-020-
021.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MNZ010-
011-018-019-025-026-033>038.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ001>004-
006>009.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for LSZ140-
141.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for LSZ142.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
