Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
377
FXUS63 KDLH 130851
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
351 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Ongoing winter storm continues to bring heavy snow, strong
winds, and blowing snow to the Northland this morning.
Snowfall will end from west to east this morning, with
lingering light snow possible across the Arrowhead and
portions of northwest Wisconsin into the afternoon.
- Confidence is increasing in a strong Colorado low bringing
another round of moderate to heavy snowfall across our south
late Saturday into Sunday.
- Temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will remain below
freezing, with wind chills in the -20F to -10F range both
Monday and Tuesday mornings.
- Another, weaker system is possible Tuesday into Wednesday,
then a warm up late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
The surface low is now moving into northwest Wisconsin, with
moderate to heavy snowfall wrapping around the north and east
sides of the system. Heaviest snowfall is expected through the
morning hours, particularly along the North Shore and portions
of northwest Wisconsin. Through 7 AM, an additional 5-8 inches
is possible along the North Shore and an additional 3-5 inches
along the South Shore snowbelt. Lighter snowfall extends back to
the Red River Valley, with an additional 1-2 inches possible
across the western extent of the Northland. Given the tightened
pressure gradient around the quick-moving surface low, surface
wind gusts are gusting to 30-40mph. Latest guidance suggests an
increase in gusts remains possible across the Brainerd Lakes
region before sunrise.
With northwesterly flow through the afternoon, snow showers will
linger across portions of northwest Wisconsin through the
afternoon, with an additional snowfall 1-3 inches of snowfall
possible. The only headline changes this morning is to extend
the Winter Storm Warning for Ashland and Iron counties through
7PM Today.
Winds will gradually diminish through the day and skies clear
from west to east, as slightly colder air arrives behind the
exiting system. Weak high pressure moves across the area
tonight, with light winds and lows falling into the single
digits and lower teens. The Northland will see only a brief
break in this otherwise active weather pattern, as the next
system arrives Saturday afternoon.
A large Colorado low moves through the Midwest Saturday night
and Sunday, with recent model guidance suggesting a slight
northern shift in the low track. Moisture content is high with
this system with significant forcing on the north side of the
surface low. A significant snowband is expected from central
Minnesota across Wisconsin, that will pivot northwestward into
portions of the Northland Saturday night and Sunday. Given the
changes in latest model guidance, expected snowfall totals for
the southern extent of the forecast area, generally south of a
line from Brainerd to Duluth, have increased. Snow probabilities
for portions of northwest Wisconsin suggest there is a 50-80%
chance of more than 12 inches of snow across central Sawyer
County northeastward to southern Iron County. A Winter Weather
Watch will be required for our southern tier of counties,
possibly as far west as southern Cass County, and as far north
as southern St. Louis County. These headlines will be addressed
later this morning once most of the area is clear of the
ongoing storm.
Colder air arrives behind the weekend system with wind chills
dropping to 10 to 20 degrees below zero for both Monday and
Tuesday mornings. Global models continue to hint at a weaker
clipper moving through Tuesday into Wednesday followed by a
warm up as a warm air mass moves over the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest in the late week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Strong, but quick-moving, low pressure is moving through the
region tonight, with widespread accumulating snow continuing
across the Northland through early Friday morning. Heaviest
snowfall rates occurring from HIB to DLH to HYR to begin this
forecast period, reducing visibility to LIFR at times. Strong
winds, in excess of 35kts, will further reduce vis due to
blowing snow. Light snowfall will continue for a few hours as
the system exits to the east, and already seeing lighter
snow rates and improving vis at BRD.
The surface low is currently centered just to the southwest of
BRD, and will track to the east through the morning. This will
allow winds, initially from the east and northeast to back to
the north and northwest overnight. Winds remain strong at
15-20kts, with gusts up to 40-45kts.
Cigs will generally be around or below 1kft, with cigs falling
to 500ft at times. Cigs improve after sunrise to MVFR heights,
and then VFR through Friday afternoon. Winds ease slightly
through the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Dangerous conditions continue early this morning on Western
Lake Superior. Strong easterly flow will produce gales up to 45
knots with isolated storm force gusts possible. Waves will
build to 9 to 14 feet, peaking around 16 feet on the North Shore
before sunrise. Heavy snow will continue along the North Shore
through this morning, along with these easterly gusts. Winds
shift to the northeast over the next few hours, then to the north
and northwest through the day. These northwest winds will
maintain lake- effect snow for the South Shore through this
afternoon. Winds will then decrease by Friday night below 20
kts.
Another strong system this weekend will bring another round of
northeast winds with gales possible across western Lake
Superior throughout the day Sunday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ020-021-
037.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
MNZ010>012-018-019.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for MNZ025-
026-035.
High Wind Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ033-034.
Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ036-038.
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ001-
002-009.
Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ006.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
WIZ007-008.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>144-150.
Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ142.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for
LSZ145>148.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
