Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
740
FXUS63 KDLH 260703
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
203 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light rain today with some brief freezing rain for the Twin Ports
and NW WI this morning.
- Snow Squall potential for tomorrow afternoon across the Arrowhead,
Twin Ports and NW WI.
- Temperature roller coaster continues with highs climbing into
the 40s and 50s at times and crashing back to below freezing
in the overnight hours.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Current Conditions/Today:
A baroclinic zone is set up over the Northland this morning as a
parade of weak surface lows move over the Midwest. Surface
temperatures remain highly variable across the region with below
freezing across the Borderlands and the Arrowhead to in the mid and
upper 40s along our south. Radar shows a wave of precipitation
entering from the west along a 700mb FGEN ribbon. We do have an
extensive warm nose across the area that reaches almost to the
International Border. Rain is the primary concern for most of the
region as this wave passes through this morning and afternoon.
However, cooler temperatures will filter in from the north through
the morning hours. Based on where the wave of precipitation is
setting up this could lead to a brief period of freezing rain for
the Twin Ports and into the NW WI causing a light glaze of ice for
the morning commute. Activity will taper off through the afternoon
with highs stalling out in the low 40s across the south and low 30s
across the north.
Friday:
The baroclinic zone will have pushed off to the southeast on Friday
with cooler temperatures in place through the day. Cyclonic flow
aloft with a PVA couplet moving through to provide a modest boost to
synoptic forcing may lead to a more eventful Friday then originally
thought. Lingering low level moisture will be present and our low
level lapse rates steepen quite significantly in the afternoon
hours. A few model soundings show 9C/km lapse rates stretching up
from 0-2km leading to some 50-90 J/kg of surface CAPE. This has the
makings of some intense snow showers and possible snow squalls in
the afternoon hours. CAMs aren`t super excited about the signal yet
but a few are starting to paint some echoes moving through NW WI.
The snow squall parameter would suggest the threat area would also
include the Twin Ports and the Arrowhead.
Weekend:
High pressure briefly moves across the region Friday night through
Saturday morning but it is quickly ushered away as a warm front
moves in from the west. Our current forecast is dry for
Saturday but weak forcing out ahead of the front may promote
some very light precipitation. With warm air still behind the
forcing this would likely lead to snow briefly making an
appearance, accumulations would likely only be a trace given the
lack of a good moisture source.
Thermal ridging really hones in on the Northland with temperatures
rapidly increasing as we head into Sunday. Highs away from Lake
Superior will soar into the 50s and 60s once again.
Next Week:
The freeze thaw cycle continues through the work week with highs
climbing into the 40s and 50s with lows dropping to below freezing
at night. Not a lot of confidence in what will transpire past Monday
as solutions have a high amount of variance. The Euro and the GFS
are showing some signals of a large system developing by Tuesday but
when looking at low clusters there is no discernible consensus.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Radar shows a wave of precipitation moving in from the west early
this morning. Satellite also shows an expanding LIFR stratus deck
spreading in from Lake Superior. Expect degraded flight conditions
through most of the morning as ceilings drop with light rain. DLH
may have to contend with some freezing rain later this morning as
the cooler temperatures permeate along Lake Superior. Rain starts to
move out this afternoon with ceilings gradually improving as we head
into the evening hours.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Enhanced northeast winds today will gust to around 20 kts at times
and lead to building waves of 2 to 4 ft from Oak Point to Saxon
Harbor, including the Outer Apostle Islands. Small Craft Advisories
will be in effect this morning and into the afternoon. Afterwards,
hazardous conditions across western Lake Superior don`t look to
return until Monday night when strong easterlies return.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for LSZ148-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
