Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
499
FXUS63 KDLH 222327
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
527 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy freezing fog and rime ice on the North Shore into
tonight.
- Light snow accumulations up to one inch along the Canadian
border tonight.
- Gusty northwest winds on Tuesday.
- Messy winter storm with mixed precipitation possible for
Christmas and Friday, with the potential for travel impacts.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Moisture advection off Lake Superior continues to create areas
of freezing fog and rime ice on trees and elevated surfaces
along the higher terrain of the North Shore. Webcams indicate
lowered visibilities in the Sawtooth Mountains, and these
conditions are expected to persist through the evening. A shift
in the wind direction tonight will eventually help clear these
obstructions as a clipper system moves across the region from
the west.
This clipper system has trended slightly further north in recent
model runs, meaning the bulk of the accumulating snow will be
confined to areas right along the Canadian border. Total snow
accumulations through Tuesday morning are expected to be between
one quarter of an inch and one inch for the Borderlands. While
some high-resolution models have hinted at a window for mixed
precipitation or freezing drizzle, the probability has dropped
significantly, and the forecast currently favors primarily light
snow for the northernmost counties.
Behind the departing clipper, a tighter pressure gradient will
develop on Tuesday morning, leading to a period of brisk
northwest winds. Gusts between 25 and 35 mph are possible,
particularly along the North Shore where downslope enhancement
can occur. A warming trend then takes hold for Wednesday and
Thursday as an upper-level ridge builds over the central United
States. Afternoon high temperatures will likely reach the mid-
twenties to low thirties across much of the Northland. A weak
disturbance may pass through on Wednesday morning, though most
precipitation is currently projected to fall over the open
waters of Lake Superior and toward the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan.
Attention remains focused on a potentially impactful and messy
weather system arriving late on Christmas Day and continuing
through Friday. A push of warm air aloft will likely create a
melting layer, introducing the threat of multiple precipitation
types including rain, freezing rain, and heavy wet snow.
Significant uncertainty remains regarding the exact track of
this system, which will dictate where the heaviest accumulations
and most dangerous ice potential occur. Despite PWATs projected
to be in the 99th percentile, current indications suggest that
while snow amounts may be light for much of the region. The
Arrowhead, however, could see higher totals due to terrain and
lake enhancement. Another clipper system may follow closely
behind this storm for the weekend, potentially bringing
additional mixed precipitation to the Northland. Uncertainty in
this system is very high and will depend on how the Christmas
system develops. Global models show the following system also
not having a lot of moisture, which will limit accumulations.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Seeing mainly VFR cloud bases early this evening, with the
exception being some BKN IFR ceilings with onshore flow at DLH
and some fog/low ceilings along the North Shore. Light snow
showers are expected across far northern Minnesota later this
evening into part of the overnight hours. Have mention of the
best timing potential for this light snow in the INL TAF. Expect
accumulations to be less than one inch. There is a 20% chance to
see some stray snow at HIB, but potential was too low to include
in the TAF. Expect IFR ceilings to arrive behind the snow
tonight into early Tuesday morning for INL and HIB, though IFR
ceilings could briefly reach DLH and HYR Tuesday morning, as
well. Widespread MVFR elsewhere, with ceilings gradually
improving and scattering out to VFR towards midday and afternoon
Tuesday.
Lighter ESE winds this evening veer to westerly tonight and
northwesterly on Tuesday while increasing with gusts of 15-25 kt
for most later tonight into Tuesday along with the veering
winds. DLH gusts could push towards 30 kt, with gusts to around
35 kt along the North Shore daytime Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 223 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
An easterly wind of 10 to 15 knots will persist through this
evening with waves of 1 to 2 feet. Winds will turn southwest
after midnight and then northwest by Tuesday morning. Strong
northwest winds are expected Tuesday with gusts up to 30 knots,
and potentially up to 35 knots near Grand Marais. Small Craft
Advisories are in effect for all nearshore zones. Waves will
build to 3 to 6 feet in the Apostle Islands on Tuesday before
subsiding Tuesday night.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 4 PM CST Tuesday for LSZ121-
140>148-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...KML
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
