Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
096
FXUS63 KDLH 270233
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
933 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chances for snow squalls tomorrow afternoon across the
Minnesota Arrowhead, Twin Ports and northwest Wisconsin areas.
- Freeze-thaw cycle continues next week with periodic low
chances for precipitation.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
The remnants of a weak frontal boundary were draped across
northern Wisconsin into central Minnesota this afternoon. Light
radar returns were evident in the vicinity of this boundary, but
surface observations did not show much reaching the ground.
High pressure was building across the Canadian Prairies as the
jet stream was dropping southward across the Upper Midwest.
For tonight into Friday morning, a shortwave trough will dive
out of Canada into the region ahead of the area of high
pressure. Low level lapse rates of 8-10C/km are forecast to move
through in association with this shortwave. Models are
generating low levels of MUCAPE as well with peak values of
60-70 J/kg across the Arrowhead and into Iron County during the
afternoon. CAMs are now starting to hint at the presence of HCRs
(horizontal convective rolls) during the afternoon hours. Snow
showers are expected and with these ingredients in place, snow
squalls will be possible across much of the Northland during the
afternoon with the best chances across the Arrowhead into the
Twin Ports and northwest Wisconsin. The snow squall parameter is
also lighting up during the mid to late morning hours from the
Twin Ports into northwest Wisconsin, so this threat may be in
place through much of the day. Highs Friday will be in the
middle 20s to middle 30s with breezy northwest winds.
High pressure will slide south of the region Friday night into
Saturday when a warm front sets up in the area. Moisture will be
extremely limited so have kept a dry forecast for now. Breezy
southwest winds and afternoon RH values falling below 30% may
lead to increased fire weather conditions in the Brainerd Lakes
area. The highest winds are in the far southern reaches of Cass
and Crow Wing counties, leading to lower confidence in any fire
weather headlines with this update. Temperatures will also warm
through the weekend with highs in the 40s and 50s Saturday with
50s and some lower 60s away from Lake Superior Sunday.
Temperatures will slowly cool each day next week as periodic
chances of precipitation move through the Upper Midwest.
Confidence on when these waves will move through is low, but
there is a chance for some mix and rumbles of thunder in
southern areas on Tuesday afternoon. Confidence is high on
daytime temperatures warming above freezing and then falling
below freezing overnight each day. With this increased low level
moisture from snow melt, fog and low stratus may be a concern
during the mornings.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Trending to VFR conditions for tonight, then expect some
increasing clouds and snow shower chances mainly for INL but
possibly briefly HIB around 12Z Friday morning. Temporary MVFR
visibilities and ceilings are possible. A brief break from snow
showers late morning to early afternoon is possible, then breezy
northwest winds, some lingering moisture, and a passing upper-
level trough may promote more scattered snow shower development
for the afternoon. There is a 10% chance for snow squalls from
INL to HYR that could briefly reduce visibility to around a
quarter mile. Otherwise, expect intermittent snow showers with
brief MVFR visibility and ceiling restrictions (20-30% chance).
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 932 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Update to issue Small Craft Advisories from Taconite Harbor to
Grand Portage and for the Outer Apostle Islands Friday afternoon
and evening. No other changes from the previous discussion.
Previous Discussion:
Northerly winds of 5 to 15 knots tonight will become
northwesterly Friday at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25
knots. A period of conditions hazardous to small craft will be
possible during the afternoon and evening hours along the North
Shore and outer Apostle Islands. Southwesterly winds of 10 to 20
knots will then be in place for Saturday. The next chance for
hazardous conditions will arrive on Monday with strong easterly
winds expected.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM CDT Friday for LSZ140-
141-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
