Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
271
FXUS63 KDLH 160833
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
233 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Tuesday evening through
Thursday morning for much of the Northland. A powerful and
messy winter system is expected to bring heavy, wet snow,
freezing rain, mixed precipitation, and strong winds to the
Northland.
- Storm and Gale Watches are posted for western Lake Superior
starting Tuesday. Northeast winds will rapidly increase,
creating hazardous waves and potential storm-force gusts along
the North Shore.
- Patchy dense fog remains possible near Lake Superior until the
storm moves in Tuesday evening.
- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue today, with highs
reaching the upper 40s. This warmth will precede the sharp
transition to winter weather mid-week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Lingering fog persists near Lake Superior this morning and
probably will float around until Tuesday evening when the next
system mixes it out.
A little instability is causing a small cluster of thunderstorms
that is zooming across NW WI. Brightbanding on radar make them
appear more menacing than they actually are. There is potential
for a light wintry mix across the far northern Arrowhead and
International Border regions as a weak disturbance moves
through. This may trigger spotty freezing drizzle or light snow
showers through the morning hours. Travelers in the far north
should remain alert for potential slick spots.
Elsewhere, unseasonably mild air remains in place. Today will
feature mostly dry conditions with temperatures running well
above normal; expect highs to climb into the upper 40s for most
locations, while some spots in the south could reach the low
50s.
Attention shifts to a potent winter storm organizing to our
west. This system is projected to impact the region starting
late Tuesday, persisting through Thursday and potentially into
Friday. Precipitation will likely begin as rain Tuesday afternoon
due to the warm pre-existing airmass. As the system deepens
and dynamic cooling takes over Tuesday night into Wednesday,
a transition to a wintry mix is expected from north to south for
several hours before becoming wet, heavy snow. The track of the
low-pressure center remains critical, as a slight shift north or
south will determine the exact rain-snow line.
Heavy Snowfall: Current indications favor the heaviest totals
across north-central and northeast Minnesota. Along the North
Shore, terrain enhancement and lake moisture (despite 50% ice
cover) will boost totals to around one foot. While the snow will
be wet and heavy initially, it will become drier further north,
leading to significant blowing snow and reduced visibility. The
heavy nature of the snow will likely cause it to stick to trees
and may cause power outages.
Icing: The signal for freezing rain has increased which will cut
into snow totals in the south with the line likely straddling the
Twin Ports area. Model soundings vary quite a bit from flavor to
flavor on how they handle this.
Travel: Conditions will deteriorate rapidly Tuesday night, making
the Wednesday morning and evening commutes difficult.
Wind & Visibility: Strong east-to-northeast winds will gust to
50 mph or higher along the North Shore likely causing blizzard
conditions and power outages along the North Shore.
The system will gradually wind down Thursday as colder, more
seasonal air filters in for late February. However, the active
pattern continues; another low-pressure system crossing to our south
bears watching for the end of the week. There is a possibility
this system clips Northwest Wisconsin, where QPF amounts in the
deformation band currently exceed 0.3". We will monitor this
closely for additional snow potential.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
A weak wave passing by tonight for mostly virga except along
the Intl. Border. Expect a bank of MVFR to IFR stratus to slide
south from Canada by morning. Only medium confidence in IFR
though I did put it in the TAFs - model guidance is split with
the handling if the stratus - either it`s going to be there and
low or it won`t. Eventually, VFR conditions are expected Tuesday
afternoon. Light and variable winds are expected through the
period. Some LLWS may occur here and there though only included
in KHYR since they had the highest probability of it.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 233 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Patchy fog lingers over the Lake Superior through Tuesday
evening. The main marine concern is a developing storm and gale
event. Strong northeast winds will develop Tuesday afternoon
and persist through Wednesday night. Storm and Gale Watches are
in effect for all nearshore zones. Storm-force gusts are
possible along the North Shore due to the favorable fetch. Waves
will build significantly where ice is not present, creating
hazardous conditions for all vessels.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday
morning for MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-035-037.
WI...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday
morning for WIZ001-002.
MARINE...Gale Watch Tuesday afternoon for LSZ140-141.
Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening for
LSZ140-141.
Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Wednesday night
for LSZ142>144.
Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon
for LSZ145-146-148-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...Wolfe
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
