Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
753
FXUS63 KDLH 211133
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
533 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Flurries are expected today for areas seeing overcast skies, bringing
a dusting of snowfall today through tonight.
- Cooler temperatures arrive this weekend into early next week. Sub-
zero wind chills are expected, especially on Monday morning.
- A Clipper arriving Monday night and continuing into Wednesday
will bring a chance for widespread accumulating snow,
especially in the Arrowhead.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
A large portion of the CWA this morning is seeing low stratus occurs
within an area of low-level saturation. Flurries have been observed
underneath this low stratus this morning as the cloud deck is
sitting right within the DGZ. For areas that continue to see stratus
today, these flurries are expected to continue on and off. Latest
nighttime microphysics imagery from GOES early this morning show
clearing occurring in north-central MN into the St. Croix River
valley, which is a result of northward dry air advection in the low
to mid levels. While this will lead to an improvement in overcast
skies this morning, especially in the western CWA, additional
moisture arriving this afternoon is expected to redevelop the
stratus and sporadic flurries. Snow accumulations from these
flurries is expected to only be a dusting with a 10% chance for 0.1"
or greater of snow accumulation today through tonight.
Temperatures this weekend will become cooler as a shortwave trough
dives into southern MN on Sunday. Widespread snowfall from this
shortwave will be fairly minimal, with only additional chances for
flurries as horizontal convective rolls develop. While snowfall
won`t be anything to write home about, this shortwave will
bring cold air advection into the CWA with much cooler temps,
especially on Sunday night into Monday morning. Low temps early
Monday morning will range from the single digits above zero in
north-central WI to the negative tens in the Arrowhead and
Borderlands. Wind chills early Monday morning are forecast to be
below zero across the region, coldest in the tip of the
Arrowhead in the -20s.
One thing to note this weekend will be the likelihood of lake effect
snow in the snow belts of northern Iron County as this cold air
surge occurs. Northerly winds this weekend will allow for favorable
fetch over Lake Superior, which shows decreased solid ice cover
following last week`s blizzard. While latest analysis shows areas of
70% concentration, there will still likely be enough open water to
develop lake effect snow. Light lake effect snow will begin later
this morning, persisting into Sunday night. Snowfall rates will
initially be light as the depth of convection remains shallow.
However, as colder air filters in on Sunday, lake induced
instability will be increasing to 200-400 J/kg with a deeper
convective layer. Total snowfall around the Penokee Range will be in
the 3-6" range from this afternoon through Sunday night. Opted
against a Winter Weather Advisory for Iron County at this time given
the light snowfall rates.
Heading into this upcoming week, focus is on a Clipper that will be
arriving Monday night and persisting into Wednesday. Recent runs of
global ensembles indicate that there is still a decent amount of
spatial variation when it comes to storm track. However, the general
trend is that the low center will be moving through the CWA and keep
heaviest snowfall rates in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin.
Latest NBM snowfall probabilities show a 50+% chance for 2" or
greater along and east of US-53 in both MN and WI. Best chances for
higher amounts exceeding 4" will be along and near the North Shore
above Silver Bay, with a 50-65% chance. Current expectations are
that the Brainerd Lakes area will be seeing the least amount of
snow, with only a 40-45% chance for 1" or more of snowfall from this
mid-week Clipper.
Following the departure of the mid-week Clipper late Wednesday,
warmer temps are favored for the latter half of the workweek as
a ridge briefly builds over the central CONUS. High temps on
Thursday increase into the upper 20s to mid 30s, with even
warmer high temps on Friday in the mid 30s to mid 40s. This warm
spell is likely to be short-lived though as another Clipper
potentially arrives on Friday, accompanied by a surge of colder
air heading into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 533 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
MVFR stratus with flurries continues across portions of the region
early this morning. Dry air continues to move northward, which has
been leading to improvements in conditions to VFR. Additional low to
mid level moisture moving in later today will likely bring a return
of widespread MVFR stratus, as well as the potential for more
flurries. Winds remain northwest through the period, becoming gusty
at times, especially early Sunday morning.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 351 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Winds remain northwest to northerly this weekend, strengthening this
evening and remaining elevated for much of western Lake Superior
into early Monday morning. Small Craft Advisories are in effect this
evening into early Monday morning, as wind gusts increase to 25-30
knots. Waves will also be building up to 5 feet in the outer Apostle
Islands in ice-free areas by Sunday afternoon. Expect winds to ease
on Monday morning as winds become variable and eventually shift to
the southeast by Monday night.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Monday
for LSZ140.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight CST
Sunday night for LSZ141>146.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM CST Monday
for LSZ148-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...Unruh
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
