Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
107
FXUS63 KDLH 192020
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
220 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lingering light snow will persist into this evening.
- Additional light snow is possible from the next system Friday
and Friday night, mainly in northern Iron county and the tip
of the Arrowhead.
- A cool and active weather pattern is expected through the next
week with some occasional snow chances, but no major storms
are in the forecast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
The major winter storm that has affected the region for the past
couple days is still spinning over western Lake Superior and
will slowly move north a little ways tonight, but eventually
become absorbed with another potent low pressure system that
will track across Iowa and into southern Wisconsin on Friday. To
the north and west of that low, a band of moderate to heavy snow
is expected, but this will largely affect central and eastern
Wisconsin and just brush parts of our region, particularly Price
and Iron counties. We will get some cooler and slightly
convergent northwest flow on the back side of this low, so there
will be a bit of a lake-enhancent affecting northern Iron County
Friday into Saturday.
Snowfall rates are not looking to be all that impressive for
our region, with maybe an inch or two every six hours or so
Friday through early Saturday morning. This could total up to
around 6 inches for parts of northern Iron County, but with
light snowfall rates and a fluffy consistency, hazards are not
warranted at this time.
We`ve been watching the potential for an inverted trough to
develop northwest of this low Friday into Saturday as well,
feeding off of the dissipation of the current low and adding in
some moisture from the new low and creating a bit of
frontogenesis. We are likely to see a snow band develop that may
persist over the tip of the Arrowhead and into Canada over
the Thunder Bay area. At this time, this looks like it will
create similar impacts over the tip of the Arrowhead as it will
over northern Iron County with some persistent light to perhaps
occasionally moderate snow. The exact placement that this snow
band may develop is still a bit uncertain, with some models
placing it entirely in Canada and others extending it further
west into the Arrowhead, so total amounts are a bit uncertain.
Right now, it looks like a general 3-6 inches spread out over a
day is most likely. Ensemble solutions are anywhere from less
than an inch to just over 6 inches at Grand Marais, for example,
so that highlights the uncertainty of this. So, we`ll continue
to keep an eye on how this trends. It`s possible that a Winter
Weather Advisory may eventually be needed, but there isn`t high
enough confidence to issue one at this point.
That inverted trough snow band could stick around as late as
Saturday evening, but eventually, it will dissipate and leave us
with some cool northwest flow. We may end up with a chilly
Saturday night with lows falling into the single digits and wind
chills below zero.
Aside from a little light South Shore lake-effect snow, Sunday
is looking like a pretty quiet and chilly day with highs in the
teens and 20s.
Into next week, broad ridging to our west will put us into some
early-week southerly flow, leading to some slightly warmer
temperatures. This will also put us more in a clipper storm
track, and it`s looking like we may have the potential for a
quick-hitting one sometime around Tuesday-Wednesday. We`ll have
to see how this one evolves, but there could be an area of
strong frontogenesis that could bring some locally high snowfall
rates, but only lasting for a few hours (so some places could
receive a few inches of snow; a pretty typical clipper system).
After that, it looks like the pattern will remain roughly the
same with some on-and-off chances for active weather.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
MVFR ceilings largely prevail with some patches of VFR ceilings.
Expect overall MVFR ceilings and possibly some IFR ceilings
overnight as low pressure very slowly moves off to the
north. Areas of snow showers will persist, mostly at DLH/HYR and
possibly INL, through this afternoon, but tapering off this
evening. Some MVFR visibilities can be expected at these snow
showers at times. Winds are expected to gradually switch to
northwesterly tonight into Friday, and some breezy conditions
are possible at BRD/HYR/DLH by Friday morning as low pressure
departs.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 220 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
We are still hanging on to some breezy conditions out there with
gusts up to 25 kt, especially around Grand Marais. Expect winds
to continue to decrease into this evening, and the Small Craft
Advisory along the North Shore will expire this evening. If
gusts diminish before then, the Advisory may be cancelled early.
After that, winds gradually shift north to northwesterly Friday
and Saturday with wind gusts generally below 20 kt. The one
exception may be along the North Shore where there`s a ~40-50%
chance that some gusts could approach 25 kt. Some brief Small
Craft Advisories may be needed. We may see a similar situation
on Saturday night into Saturday morning, except involving both
the north and south shores, where wind gusts may briefly
approach 25 kt. Aside winds, expect snow chances to stick around
through Saturday as another low pressure system approaches Lake
Superior from the south.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ140-
141.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
