Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
899
FXUS63 KDLH 121722
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1122 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very warm and mainly dry weather pattern through Monday.
- More notable system moving through the Upper Midwest mid next
week may bring a plowable snow, freezing rain and/or rain
Tuesday PM into Wednesday for the Northland.
- If any accumulating snow does occur next week, expect a much
more wet/heavy snowfall than the last month or so of light
and drier clipper snowfall.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
High pressure currently centered over the Northland is providing
sunny skies and quiet conditions today. Temperatures will begin
a trend today that lasts into early next week of being in the
mid 30s to low 40s for daytime highs. These very warm
temperatures and possible melting off the current snowpack under
a low-level stable layer each night is forecast to bring fog.
The most likely area tonight is over northern Minnesota and the
stateline counties of far western Wisconsin. Similar conditions
are expected again Saturday morning, but may expand even further
eastward into the rest of northwest Wisconsin.
A weak clipper system moves through far northern Ontario Sunday
night. This clipper is likely to lack any notable moisture to
keep only around a 10 percent chance of very light snowfall for
the Arrowhead and Borderlands Sunday night into Monday.
Our primary focus is on a potent Colorado Low expected to emerge
from the Rockies and track toward the Great Lakes by the middle of
next week. Warm air and deep moisture will surge northward ahead
of this system starting Tuesday morning. Initial precipitation
would likely begin as a messy mix of combination of rain,
freezing rain and snow Tuesday PM before transitioning to a bit
colder airmass favoring more snowfall precip type at some point
Wednesday when as the main low pressure center moves through to
the south. Because the exact track of the low is still being
determined, the transition line between rain and heavy snow
remains uncertain. However, the high moisture content of this
system suggests the potential for plowable snow and travel
disruptions across the Northland Tuesday night through
Wednesday.
If any snowfall is allowed to accumulate mid next week, the
setup shown in deterministic and ensemble global guidance
supports the forecast of a more wet snowfall Tuesday PM into
Wednesday. The snow to liquid ratio is very likely to be much
lower (warm residual airmass already in place and being advected
in still and a high liquid content available from this system
as just two environmental indicators) with any snowfall that
does fall mid- next week as the Colorado Low moves through,
especially compared to the clipper systems we have observed
mainly this last month. Many of those clippers have had observed
snow to liquid ratios of 20-30:1 (as in if 20 inches of snow
had fallen then that would equal out to 1 inch of liquid
equivalent precipitation) at the NWS Duluth Forecast Office. It
is too early to provide exact values for the system next week,
but expect a more general range of snow to liquid ratios of
5-12:1 if any snowfall is observed. That lower-end being favored
more towards the onset of precipitation and the higher-end being
favored towards the end of the system.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
VFR conditions and light winds prevail this TAF period.
The exception is some late patchy fog expected 06-15Z where
a few terminals may see LIFR ceilings for a few hours and
MVFR/IFR visibility
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1040 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
Expect benign conditions across the nearshore waters of Western Lake
Superior for the next 48 hours as high pressure moves through. Winds
will shift southwesterly at 10 to 15 knots tonight with some
gusts approaching 20 knots near Grand Portage. Waves will remain
1 foot or less through Friday night.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...NLy
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
