Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
304
FXUS63 KDLH 271752
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1252 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Snow squalls are possible this afternoon into early this
evening though the threat for these is generally decreasing.
- Saturday afternoon will see critical fire weather conditions
with low relative humidity and strong and gusty southwest
winds.
- Elevated fire weather conditions will linger into Sunday as
relative humidity values continue to be low though wind
speeds will be notably lower than on Saturday.
- An active and dynamic weather pattern returns next week.
Multiple systems will bring chances for rain, accumulating
snow, mixed precipitation, and even a few thunderstorms Monday
through Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
Our primary focus this afternoon and evening is on the
potential for snow squalls traversing the Northland. An upper
level disturbance pushing into the region will combine with
steep low level lapse rates to produce convective snow showers
this afternoon into early this evening. The greatest risk for
these intense bursts of snow will be across the Arrowhead, down
through the Twin Ports, and into northwest Wisconsin. While not
everyone will see them, any squalls that do develop could cause
rapid drops in visibility to a quarter mile or less and put down
a quick coating of snow, making for briefly hazardous travel on
untreated roads. Activity will rapidly taper off this evening,
leaving us with clearing skies and overnight low temperatures
dropping into the single digits in the MN Arrowhead and teens
elsewhere. All of that said, the general model trends have
lowered this threat.
Saturday afternoon brings a critical fire weather threat. A Red
Flag Warning has been issued for Saturday afternoon for our
Minnesota zones, and Special Weather Statements will cover
portions of northwest Wisconsin. An inverted trough will cross
the region giving a brief wave of clouds and possibly some light
snow in the morning. The clouds are expected to rapidly clear
and we will see temperatures warm significantly. A powerful 60
knot low level jet will drive strong southwest surface winds,
tapping into a warm and very dry air mass. High resolution model
guidance, particularly the HRRR, shows relative humidity values
bottoming out into the teens during the afternoon. The combination
of these strong winds, highly receptive fuels in snow free
areas, and plummeting humidity will create dangerous fire
weather conditions where any ignitions could spread rapidly
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday, surface high pressure builds across Ontario, bringing
a quieter end to the weekend. While the gusty winds from
Saturday will subside, relative humidity values will continue to
flirt with the 20s during the afternoon, maintaining at least
some localized elevated fire weather concerns. Temperatures will
soar well above normal, with highs reaching the upper 50s to
lower 60s across our southern forecast zones. However, folks
near Lake Superior will experience a classic localized cooling
effect, with a sharp temperature gradient keeping coastal
communities noticeably chillier on the North Shore.
The pattern becomes highly active and complex as we move into the
upcoming work week. A series of upper level troughs will eject out
of the Rockies and move across the Northern Plains, bringing
multiple rounds of precipitation to the Northland starting as early
as Monday afternoon. These initial waves develop into a
stronger storm system and will continue to impact the Upper
Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday. Because we are in a transitional
spring pattern, we can expect a wild mix of precipitation
types, including rain, accumulating snow, and potentially some
freezing rain. We may even pull enough moisture and instability
northward to see a few thunderstorms, depending on the exact
track of the surface low.
Looking toward the end of the forecast period on Thursday, the
expansive storm system affecting the Great Lakes region will
begin to exit, but wrap around moisture and lingering cyclonic
flow will keep skies mostly cloudy with persistent slight
chances for light snow showers. Temperatures will cool back down
to near or slightly below seasonal averages, with highs
generally topping out in the 30s and lower 40s. We will continue
to monitor the track of the early week system, as its ultimate
path will dictate just how quickly we dry out and clear up
heading into the late week timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
Scattered light snow showers across northwest Wisconsin and
northeast Minnesota through sunset this evening. Occasional MVFR
to IFR conditions in snow showers. Cloud bases this afternoon
and into the evening will be in the 2500-3500ft AGL range. VFR
conditions on Saturday with strong southwest winds with gusts of
25-30kts. Low level wind shear is forecast (a 50-70 percent
chance) near KINL late tonight.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the nearshore
waters of western Lake Superior. Northwest winds will gust to 25
knots this afternoon with waves building to 3 to 6 feet over
the Outer Apostle Islands before tapering off tonight. Based on
the latest model trends, winds have been boosted over the lake
for Saturday likely requiring additional Small Craft Advisories.
Gale potential is < 30 percent near Grand Portage.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MNZ025-026-
033>038.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140-
141-150.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ148.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...PA
MARINE...Wolfe
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
