Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
838
FXUS63 KDLH 141754
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1254 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another strong low pressure will move across the Midwest late Saturday
through Sunday leading to heavy snow in the Northland.
- Strong winds with this system may lead to white out of blizzard
conditions in the Twin Ports and South Shore
- Cold temperatures Monday morning with wind chills of -20F.
- Warmer temperatures on Wednesday and through the end of the
work week with off and on precipitation chances.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Current Conditions:
Quiet weather to start the weekend as high pressure is over the
region. Through the day clouds will be increasing and our highs in
the afternoon will be hovering around freezing for most the region
with slightly warmer temperatures over NW WI. As we head into the
evening hours snow is expected to start flying once again.
Snow Storm Saturday Night into Sunday:
Setup:
A low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies and will advance
across the Central Plains through Sunday. Largely out of WY this low
is already forming in a region that is being supplied with Pacific
Northwest moisture as evident in the advected layer precipitable
water. With the low strengthening as an upper level trough digs in
behind the system it will also be able to draw on some gulf
moisture. Having been supplied by two moisture sources this system
is expected to carry an impressive amount of PWATs with EFIs of 0.8
to 0.9 across central MN into NW WI.
There is high agreement on the low track at this point amongst the
ensemble families which takes the low through IA and towards southern
Lake Michigan on Sunday. This path will allow for a large
deformation zone to set up north of the low and impact our
region. This zone will have strong forcing supported by a large
700mb FGEN band which will lead to heavy snowfall rates.
Impacts:
Heavy snow is a given whenever we end up dealing with a deformation
zone moving through the region. NW WI will see the burnt of the
action as the low is expected to track NE after moving towards Lake
Michigan which will give the area the longer residency time within
the zone. With this system being able to tap into two different
moisture sources we are getting some higher QPF then we typically
expect with a winter storm. An interesting tidbit about higher QPF
is that it often leads to lower SLRs even in strongly forced storms.
The compaction of the snow due to more water loading has led to
us capping the SLRs closer to 15:1. Another factor that will
need to be considered is the strong winds associated with this
system. This can lead to dendrites being fractured and
therefore again lowering SLRs potential. But even with these
subtle changes that can limit snowfall, with such a high QPF we
are looking at 70-90% chances of at least of foot of snow for
portions of NW WI.
While NW WI is going to see the majority of the snow the rest of the
region is not in the clear. The Brainerd Lakes Region will also
spend some time in the deformation zone and has been upgraded to a
Winter Storm Warning. There will be a Canadian high pressure to the
north providing some dry air which will help lead to a sharp
gradient across the north where snow totals quickly scale down.
Wind will also be playing a major role in this system. The slow
moving nature of the system will lead to a prolonged period of
northeasterlies streaming down Lake Superior. This set up is
favorable for a convergent band to develop and be sustained for an
extended period. If a band does form it will act like a fire hose
for a small location where snow totals will greatly exceed the
surrounding neighborhoods. At this time that band could impact
anywhere from Silver Bay down through the Twin Ports region.
Blizzard conditions also can`t be fully ruled out at this time as
well. As previously mentioned we will have prolonged period of
strong winds whipping across Lake Superior that will breach through
into the land. With higher snowfall rates, white out conditions
may be possible and an upgrade to Blizzard Warnings may be
needed for the Twin Ports and portions of the South Shore.
Monday/Tuesday:
Our winter system will still be slowly exiting to the east on Monday
with quite a bit of wrap around moisture lingering over the region.
Snowfall rates will be much lower at this time but we will see some
lingering snow, especially on the South Shore thanks to lake
effect. As the low pulls away frigid air filters in from the north
once again with 850 temps dropping to -23C. With the wind currently
in place our wind chills on Monday morning may be around -20F. Even
with sky cover gradually clearing through the day high temps will
struggle to get out of the teens.
The colder air mass start to depart on Tuesday as a warm front moves
in from the west. This warm front will bring some light snow Tuesday
afternoon with chances tapering off Wednesday morning. Not a lot of
moisture to work with for this boundary with snow totals likely
being around 1"
Mid week:
After the passage of the warm front we will see an increase in
temperatures with highs climbing into the 40s to finish out the work
week. A heat dome over the desert southwest will keep our pattern
active as northwest meridional flow will still send multiple
shortwaves over the region. This may lead to off and on
precipitation chances. No signals for any major systems at this
time though, just small glancing shots of light rain or snow
depending on the time of day.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
VFR conditions will continue this afternoon before condition
begin to deteriorate this evening and overnight as a strong low
pressure system moves across the region. Winds less than 10kts
as of issuance time will turn to the east/southeast today ahead
of the next storm system. That system arrives this evening, with
winds increasing with gusts of 30kts or more beginning around
12z and continuing through the end of the TAF period. Light snow
spreads from west to east across central MN into WI with MVFR
ceilings, beginning around 15/00z. Conditions deteriorate after
15/06Z, with moderate to heavy snow, strong winds, and LIFR
visibilities for BRD, DLH and HYR, with MVFR/IFR to the north.
Ceiling forecast is currently for MVFR, but IFR is certainly
possible.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
A strong low pressure system will be moving across the Midwest late
Saturday through Sunday and will lead to a prolonged period of gales
across Lake Superior. There is a 30% chances of seeing storm force
winds up near Grand Portage early Monday morning as the winds turn
more northerly. Gales will eventually subside west to east late
Monday but Small Craft Advisories will likely need to follow them
for a time as both winds and waves subside.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT
Sunday for MNZ020.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT
Sunday for MNZ025-035.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Sunday
for MNZ033-034-036.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT
Sunday for MNZ037.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for
MNZ038.
WI...Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for
WIZ001-006-007.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for
WIZ002-008-009.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 1 PM CDT Monday for
WIZ003-004.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for LSZ140.
Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for
LSZ140.
Gale Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ141.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT
Sunday for LSZ142.
Gale Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 4 PM CDT Monday for LSZ142-
147-148-150.
Gale Warning from 4 AM Sunday to noon CDT Monday for
LSZ143>146.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...Britt
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
