Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
763
FXUS63 KDLH 080722
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
222 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected Friday for
north central and northeast Minnesota. Critical fire weather
conditions possible for the Brainerd Lakes region.
- Showers are possible Friday night (30-50% chance) and rain and
a few thunderstorms are possible Monday night into Tuesday
(30-50% chance).
- The cool and quiet weather pattern will continue through the
weekend, then temperatures warm up next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026
The Northland remains under a persistent northwest flow pattern,
keeping conditions unseasonably cool for early May. For the rest
of today, a weak surface low pressure system will track from
northwest Minnesota this morning into north-central Minnesota this
afternoon. While this system brings some cloud cover, a very dry
profile aloft will mix down to the surface by late morning. West
winds will increase to 12 to 17 mph with gusts reaching 20 to 25
mph...strongest late afternoon to mid-evening on the backside of
the surface low with a shift to northwesterly winds. Combined
with minimum relative humidity values dropping into the 15 to 25
percent range, near-critical fire weather conditions will
develop across North-Central Minnesota, the Iron Range, and the
I-35 corridor. Specifically for Southern Cass County and Crow
Wing County, that late afternoon to early evening hours time
period will have to be monitored for possible Critical Fire
Weather Conditions with the maximized winds expected and a day
of critically low relative humidity. High temperatures today
will be warmer, reaching around 60 to the upper 60s.
A period of weak rain showers is forecast this afternoon and
evening for the Arrowhead and South Shore with the passing weak
low pressure warm air advection regime. Any rainfall would be
sprinkles to a few hundredths of an inch.
Tonight, a weak band of precipitation is forecast to move
through central Minnesota. This may scrape our southern tier,
particularly the southern areas of the Brainerd Lakes and east-
central Minnesota, early Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts
will be minimal, very likely less than a tenth of an inch, with
a sharp cutoff expected near the regional border. Lows tonight
will drop into the 30s except near that precip closer to 40 F.
Saturday remains breezy with northwest winds gusting to 25 mph
and highs staying in the 50s as a cold air advection regime sets
in for this weekend behind a passing cold front.
Another round of widely scattered rain showers (currently a
10-15% chance) will have to be monitored for the Arrowhead
region Saturday afternoon if the pool of low to mid-level
instability can push a bit further southward from north of
Superior in Ontario.
Cooler and quiet weather persists through the remainder of the
weekend. High pressure nudges in for Sunday, but the dry airmass
remains in place. Another round of near-critical fire weather
conditions is possible Sunday afternoon as relative humidity
bottoms out, though wind gusts look slightly weaker than today.
Monday starts dry and sunny with highs rebounding into the 60s,
though very low humidity remains a concern before moisture
increases ahead of the next system.
A shift in the pattern arrives Monday night as a low pressure
system in the Southern Manitoba Plains lifts a warm front into
the region. This will trigger a period of much-needed rain
showers and potentially some general thunderstorms through
Tuesday. Confidence is increasing for a wetting rain, though
severe weather is not currently anticipated. Drier conditions
return for Wednesday with high temperatures climbing into the
upper 60s and lower 70s.
Looking toward the end of next week, that upper-level ridging
will allow temperatures to climb well above normal. Many inland
areas likely reaching the mid 70s by Thursday. A trend in the
forecast over the last 24 hours has also been introducing a
period of rainfall (30-40% chance) Thursday which could help
moderate those temperatures a bit as a notable Northern US
Plains low-level southerly jet sets up.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026
VFR conditions prevail this TAF period even as daytime rain
showers are possible in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin.
Westerly winds 10-15 knots will gust 18-25 knots after 16Z
Saturday and last into sunset. A wind shift to northwesterly is
expected Friday after 21Z.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026
Winds will remain southwest at 10 to 15 knots today before
shifting northwest late Friday behind a cold front. Northwest
winds Saturday afternoon may gust to 20 knots, creating conditions
occasionally hazardous for small craft. Waves will generally
remain 2 feet or less through the next few days. No headlines
are currently in effect, but small craft should monitor
Saturday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026
Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon
for North-Central Minnesota to the I-35 corridor and the Iron
Range. West winds of 12-17 mph with gusts up to 25 mph will
overlap with minimum relative humidity of 15-25%. A few hours
of Critical Fire Weather Conditions are possible late afternoon
to early evening today in southern Cass and Crow Wing Counties.
While northwest Wisconsin will also see critically low RHs
today, the strongest winds are expected to not arrive until the
evening after the nocturnal inversion begins to set up. A band
of light rainfall is mostly expected to stay south of Northland
districts, but less than a tenth of an inch cannot be ruled out
for the southern Brainerd Lakes to east-central MN districts
late tonight into Saturday morning. A wind shift to
northwesterly will occur first late afternoon to day in far
north-central Minnesota then through the evening and overnight
hours southeastward. Gusty northwest winds 10 to 15 knots
gusting to 25 knots occur Saturday. Another round of near-
critical concerns is possible Sunday and Monday due to
persistent low humidity.
See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...NLy
FIRE WEATHER...NLy
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
