Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
784
FXUS63 KDLH 142328
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
528 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly quiet weather is expected into early next week with
unseasonably warm temperatures. Areas of fog will be the
primary concern again tonight into Sunday morning.
- A very light wintry mix of snow, rain, and freezing rain is
possible for far northern Minnesota Sunday evening and Sunday
night.
- An impactful winter system will move into the Upper Midwest
late Tuesday and continue through early Thursday. This system
will be bringing an initial wintry mix and then the potential
for moderate to heavy, wet snowfall. Travel impacts are likely
to occur.
- The active weather pattern continues late this upcoming week
with additional chances for snowfall and more seasonal
temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Rest of Today - Sunday Morning:
Sunny skies are present across the majority of the Northland
this afternoon alongside light southwesterly winds on the
backside of surface high pressure centered over Lake Huron.
Unusually warm temperatures in the 40s have already developed
early this afternoon, with high temperatures for some locations
expected to approach near 50F! Several record daily high
temperatures are already in jeopardy as most record highs for
today are in the mid to upper 40s. Already bumped up the high
temperature forecast for this afternoon a few degrees to account
for the overachieving temperatures.
A weak shortwave trough will be moving through the Northland
tonight into early Sunday morning, but lacking in sufficient
moisture in the lower portions of the atmosphere to produce any
noticeable precipitation at the ground. The main impact from
this system will be fog development this evening into Sunday
morning (70-80% chance) for much of the Northland along with
areas of dense fog potential. There still remains a decent
amount of uncertainty regarding how widespread dense fog will
get, so have held off on any Dense Fog Advisory issuance for
now. Areas with the best potential for dense fog would be in
north-central and northeast Minnesota.
Sunday - Early Tuesday:
The pattern remains largely quiet with above average
temperatures persisting for Sunday through early in the upcoming
week. Have bumped up forecast high temperatures several degrees
again for Sunday, particularly in north-central Minnesota where
some southerly return flow on the backside of departing high
pressure should pump temperatures into the 40s once again. Some
portions of the Arrowhead and the South Shore may see
temperatures top out in the mid-30s to low 40s, however.
We have increased precipitation potential and QPF amounts in the
forecast for far northern Minnesota Sunday evening into very
early Monday morning due to additional shortwave trough
energy/low-level frontogenesis. The main surface low pressure
will pass well to our north in northwestern Ontario, but it
should bring a weak surface trough/cold front through the
Northland. Model soundings favor saturation reaching the ground
in far northern Minnesota, mainly north of the Iron Range, but
an area of drier air in the low-levels hanging around for the
remainder of the area. Precipitation is favored to start as
primarily rain or a rain/snow mix very late Sunday afternoon and
evening when surface temperatures will mainly be above freezing.
However as temperatures cool below freezing later in the evening
and overnight, forecast thermal profiles show signals for a mix
of very light snow and possibly some very light freezing rain.
Accumulations appear minimal, ranging from a trace to a few
tenths of an inch of snow and a trace to very light glaze of ice
in the Borderlands.
Temperatures remain mild into early next week with overnight
lows in the upper teens to 20s and highs in the mid 30s to mid
40s for Monday and Tuesday. Expect dry conditions for Monday
into early Tuesday, as well.
Impactful Winter System Late Tuesday - Early Thursday:
The focus of the forecast shifts to a more active pattern
starting towards the middle of next week. Global ensemble
guidance depicts a deep trough over the Pacific Coast/western
CONUS early in the week ejecting a negatively-tilted shortwave
trough across the northern Rockies daytime Tuesday and into the
Upper Midwest by late Tuesday. Latest 12Z runs of the GEFS and
ECMWF ensemble continue to come into slightly more agreement
with one another regarding the track timing and north-south
placement of the surface low pressure centers associated with
the ejecting trough moving into the Upper Midwest Tuesday
night/early Wednesday morning. With that said, there is still
some uncertainty in the exact timing and north-south track of
this system. The general trend in the surface low track
clustering has been slightly northward over the last few model
runs, as well. This system should have access to plenty of
moisture with moisture origins from the Pacific near Baja
California and western Gulf moisture fetch. ECMWF EFI/SOT
highlight the Northland for a signal of both unusually high QPF
and snow potential relative to this time of year. In fact, the
NAEFS/global model forecast PWAT values of 0.5-0.7" are above
the 90th percentile of climatology for this time of year. The
surface low pressure should also be fairly deep, with the NAEFS
forecast showing MSLP with the surface low approaching near the
minimum of the CFSR reanalysis climatology for this time of
year. Strong synoptic forcing for ascent with a large
deformation band associated with this system should bring
widespread precipitation to the Northland with this system from
Tuesday evening through early Thursday.
The exact track of the surface low pressure center will play a
big factor in how far north the warm front and associated warm
sector of this system gets into the Northland, with more
northerly tracks favoring more rain mixing in with the snow late
Tuesday and Wednesday while more southerly tracks would keep
precipitation primarily snow for the Northland. The latest
forecast still favors snow as the primary precipitation type
for most of the Northland, though potential for a wintry mix or
primarily rain increases towards the Brainerd Lakes into inland
northwest Wisconsin where a warm nose aloft may be present and
surface temperatures will be near or above freezing. Regardless,
deep saturation and strong forcing for ascent should drive
moderate to high precipitation rates with this system, with the
highest precipitation rates currently forecast for the Tuesday
evening into Wednesday morning timeframe. Additionally, very
strong east-northeasterly winds off of Lake Superior late
Tuesday and Wednesday should aid in terrain enhancement and at
least some lake-enhancement to precipitation for the North Shore
into Duluth. More details to be fleshed out as ensembles come
into more agreement with this system.
Once the surface low passes through late Wednesday/Wednesday
night, the precipitation type should transition to all snow as
we get into the cold sector of the low, with precipitation
gradually coming to an end on Thursday. The latest run of the
NBM shows 50-90% probabilities of >2" of snow for all but inland
northwest Wisconsin and southern Price County in Minnesota,
where the probabilities are 30-50%. Highest probabilities are
along the North Shore. Probabilities for >6" of snow are 35-60%
for much of north-central and northeast Minnesota, the Twin
Ports, and portions of the South Shore and 60-80% for the North
Shore; if trends hold, these are the would most likely see the
need for a Winter Storm Watch. Areas from the Brainerd Lakes
east into northwest Wisconsin only have 10-30% chances for >6"
of snow due to higher potential for rain or a wintry mix late
Tuesday and Wednesday. A long tail into probabilities for even
higher snowfall totals than 6-8" remains along the North Shore
due terrain- and Lake Superior-enhancements to precipitation
rates. All-in-all, the late Tuesday to daytime Thursday
timeframe is likely to see travel impacts of some fashion, so
the next couple days are the time to adjust travel plans
accordingly.
Active Weather Continuing Late Next Week:
The main deep trough over the western CONUS is then progged to
move east into the Rockies by Thursday night/early Friday and
then into the central CONUS Friday into Saturday. Ensemble
spread is still much wider regarding surface low tracks with
this late week system, but does tend to keep the surface low
tracks across the mid-Mississippi Valley into the southern Great
Lakes. The more northerly tracks could bring an additional round
of snowfall to primarily northwest Wisconsin Thursday night
through Friday, but farther south tracks could keep snow out of
the Northland entirely. Confidence remains low regarding
snowfall potential and amounts for late this coming week. With
that said confidence is medium to high that we will see
temperatures cool off to closer to normal values starting late
next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 522 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Similar to the last two nights, the latest model trends have really
backed off on the fog signal overnight. Temps were really warm again
and we had RH`s a bit higher today in the mid 30s in places. In
this package, I trended most TAFs more towards VFR rather than IFR;
however, I do think that the northwest and western parts of the area
have a better shot at dense fog overnight and there`s supposed to
be a bit of moisture advection though that has shown that the last
two nights too and it didn`t really pan out. The fog signal for
tonight is stronger than the last two nights though. Winds remain
light and variable. There has been a little fog at the head of Lake
Superior though I do not expect that to make its way up the hill to
the airport but may brush the eastern portions of the TAF
doughnut.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 247 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Mainly light winds and minimal waves are forecast through Monday
night. Winds quickly ramp up out of the east-northeast on
Tuesday, becoming very strong late Tuesday PM through Wednesday.
There is an 80% chance for gale-force wind gusts Tuesday night
through Wednesday evening as a strong winter storm moves through
the Upper Midwest. The potential for Storm-Forece wind gusts is
also 30% from Tuesday night until midday Wednesday, strongest
along the North Shore. Should these strong wind forecasts
continue to hold consistent, a Gale Watch will likely be needed
and possibly a Storm Watch if wind forecasts continue to
strengthen.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...Rothstein
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
