Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
943
FXUS63 KDLH 122348
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
548 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Tonight will feature a mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain
into Tuesday morning causing slippery conditions.
- Lake effect snow could lead to additional snowfall up to 6
inches in northern Iron County Tuesday night.
- Another system in the late week will bring another round of
snow to the Northland, ranging 2-5 inches, followed by
dangerously cold conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
The Northland will experience a sharp transition from an
unusually mild Monday to a more traditional January deep freeze
by the end of the week. This afternoon remains pleasant under a
ridge of high pressure, with temperatures reaching well into the
30s across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
However, a clipper system is fast approaching from the
northwest, bringing a complicated array of precipitation types
starting late tonight. Because the atmosphere will be hovering
around freezing both near the ground and in the mid-levels, we
expect a period of mixed precipitation. This includes light
snow, rain, and a concerning window of freezing rain or freezing
drizzle. Surfaces that are currently warm from today`s sun will
quickly cool after sunset, allowing a light glaze of ice to
form on bridges, overpasses, and untreated roads.
By Tuesday morning, the primary low-pressure center shifts east,
and an arctic cold front will begin its push through the
Arrowhead and north-central Minnesota. As colder air infiltrates
the region, mixed precipitation will transition to all snow.
However, there is a potential for a loss of cloud ice aloft
while low- level moisture remains trapped. This could result in
a period of freezing drizzle even after the main snow has ended,
as there may not be enough ice crystals in the clouds to
produce snowflakes. Winds will also turn blustery, shifting to
the northwest and gusting up to 30 mph. Most will see snowfall
below an inch and up to a glaze from this system. Winter Weather
Advisories are also in effect where confidence in ice
accumulation is higher, highlighting slippery conditions for the
morning commute.
As the main system departs Tuesday night, attention shifts to
the South Shore of Lake Superior. Cold air passing over the
relatively warmer lake waters will activate the lake-effect snow
machine. Areas along the Penokee Range and northern Iron County
are particularly at risk, where an additional 4 to 6 inches of
snow could accumulate through Wednesday morning. The rest of the
region will see clearing skies but much colder conditions, with
highs on Wednesday struggling to climb out of the teens.
The pattern remains active as we look toward the end of the
week. Another potent clipper system is expected to arrive on
Thursday. Unlike the early-week system, this one will have a
much deeper reservoir of cold air to work with, meaning
precipitation should stay all snow and will be light and fluffy
in nature. Widespread totals of 2 to 5 inches are currently
forecast, though these have the potential to change throughout
the week. There are signs this system could stall over the
Great Lakes, potentially drawing out the snowfall through Friday
evening. Once this system exits, an arctic air mass will settle
in for the weekend. High temperatures will plummet into the
single digits above zero, with overnight lows falling well below
zero. When combined with elevated winds, wind chill values may
reach levels that require Cold Weather Advisories.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 549 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
VFR conditions to start the TAF period this evening. However,
expect conditions to worsen starting late this evening and
tonight as a wintry mix of snow, freezing rain, and rain moves
in from the northwest with a clipper system. Expect MVFR
visibilities with MVFR to IFR ceilings. Also expect LLWS tonight
into early Tuesday morning aside from INL/far northern
Minnesota. Some slight increases in visibilities are possible
Tuesday afternoon depending on how fast areas of precipitation
move through, though there may be some lingering wrap around
snow/rain showers on the backside of this weather system mid-
Tuesday morning through the end of the TAF period. Winds start
out light, then pick up tonight out of the southwest to west
before turning northwesterly for most terminals daytime Tuesday
with gusts of 20 to 30 kt.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 222 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
A Gale Watch is in effect for all of western Lake Superior from
Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. Southwest winds
today will shift to the north-northwest Tuesday night,
increasing to 20 to 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots possible.
Significant wave heights of 5 to 10 feet are expected along the
South Shore. Heavy freezing spray is likely along with the gales as
temperatures drop rapidly.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
Tuesday for MNZ010-018-019-026-035-037.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST
Tuesday for WIZ001>003-008-009.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
Wednesday for WIZ004.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for
LSZ121-140>148-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...KML
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
