Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
703
FXUS63 KDLH 192326
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
526 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dangerously cold wind chills last into Tuesday morning.
- The rest of the week remains cold, and becomes even colder
Thursday into this weekend. The airmass forecast Thursday
night through Saturday morning is the coldest most of the
Northland has experienced since 2021.
- Another clipper will affect portions of the Northland
Wednesday, though accumulation will generally be less than an
inch.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Colder air arrived and will be with us for a while. There will
be a few days during the next week or two where temps warm up
while still remaining below normal. Wednesday will be one
example when we are /only/ 7 to 12 degrees below normal for high
temps (forecast temps middle single digits in the Arrowhead to
teens above zero in central MN east through the St. Croix
Valley). Next Monday may be only around 10 degrees below normal,
too. The airmass moving in for Thursday and Friday appears to
be the coldest the Northland has experienced since 2021.
Fortunately the coldest air will be short-lived arriving
Thursday night and departing Saturday. Actual air temperatures
will approach -40 in northern Minnesota and around -30 in
central Minnesota and northwest Wisconisn. A prolonged period of
cold weather alerts will be needed.
A weak trough will pivot through the region tonight. Thin
stratus was producing light snow showers and flurries over
northeast Minnesota, northwest Ontario, and southeast Manitoba
today and will continue to generate a few snowflakes tonight.
Overnight skies will eventually clear starting over central and
north-central Minnesota which should allow for radiational
cooling. Nudged temperatures below the NBM guidance for tonight
closer to the 50th percentile (which was several degrees colder
than the deterministic NBM). The 25th percentile is colder again
by 2 to 5 degrees. Depending on how quickly clouds depart and
winds weaken, some areas may dip into the 30s below zero
tonight. Dangerous wind chills of -25 to near -40 are forecast
tonight. Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect for the
Northland until noon Tuesday.
A weak clipper will pass through the region Tuesday night and
Wednesday and will bring a brief period of warmer temperatures
with highs Wednesday in the single digits to middle teens above
zero. That system will have little moisture for snow. Despite
the limited moisture, it`s likely most of the area will see at
least a few flakes. Accumulation should be less than an inch.
The Arctic surge begins to arrive Thursday. High temperatures
will range from the low single figures above zero in northwest
Wisconsin to around -10 degrees in north-central Minnesota, 20
to 30 degrees below normal. Overnight lows Thursday night will
range from the middle 20s below zero along the South Shore to
near 40 below zero in north-central Minnesota. Highs Friday will
be in the teens below zero except along the South Shore where
single digits below zero are forecast. Friday night will be the
coldest of this stretch with lows generally from -25 to -42.
Looking back through the archives, this seems to be the coldest
temperatures the Northland experienced since January and
February 2021. Extreme Cold Warnings will likely be needed for
the dangerous cold and wind chills.
Temperatures trend slightly warmer for the weekend while
staying well below normal. A clipper Sunday night and Monday
will bring a slight chance of light snow and will help Monday be
the second warmest day of the next 7. The longer range outlooks
continue to indicate below normal temperatures out to early
February. There will likely be some warmer days during that
stretch. Additional Arctic outbreaks remain possible as the
Arctic Oscillation (AO) remains in it`s negative phase into
early February. Ensemble guidance points to the AO phase
trending toward neutral during the first week in February which
would help keep Arctic air closer to the pole.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Mostly VFR conditions across the Northland. However, we do have some
shallow clouds barely visible on satellite that are occasionally
streaming over INL/HIB/DLH to provide brief periods of MVFR ceilings
and light flurries. Coverage is expected to be less through the
overnight period but still looks to persist over northern MN. TAFs
will have to be a bit nimble with tempos added on an as needed
basis. With the lack of sunlight tracking these shallow clouds in
the cold air mass will be difficult.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 342 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Gusty west winds veer northwesterly tonight and gradually
weaken. Small Craft Advisories for most of the waters expire at
10 PM tonight. Areas from Grand Portage to Silver Bay is in
effect until 10 AM Tuesday and the Outer Apostle Islands runs
until 4 PM Tuesday. Heavy freezing spray will remain a risk
along the South Shore until 10 PM tonight. Gusty winds return
Wednesday night and Thursday. The risk of heavy freezing spray
will increase once again as will the risk to smaller vessels.
Bitterly cold Arctic air will pour over the waters Thursday
night through Saturday morning which may create sea smoke, snow
showers, reduced visibility, and icing conditions.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for WIZ001>004-
006>009.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ121-
143>148.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for LSZ140>142.
Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for LSZ142.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST Tuesday for LSZ150.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 PM CST this evening for
LSZ150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Huyck
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
