Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
637
FXUS63 KDLH 051823
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1223 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Freezing drizzle continues along the North Shore through
tonight,with up to a tenth of an inch of ice possible. The
Winter Weather Advisory runs until midnight but may need an
extension.
- Dense fog will continue to be a significant issue for the
North Shore due to the strong east flow piling up the marine
layer.
- A messy system arrives Friday bringing rain and a few
thunderstorms, transitioning to light snow. Snow amounts
continue to trend lower due to warmer temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026
Strong easterly flow continues to pile up the marine layer
against the North Shore today. This is keeping a stubborn area
of dense fog and freezing drizzle locked in place. We expect
this freezing drizzle to continue producing ice accumulations up
to one tenth of an inch on untreated surfaces. A Winter Weather
Advisory is in effect until midnight, though we may need to
extend this further for the North Shore if the onshore flow
deems to be persistent. While fog has improved, it looks likely
to return along the immediate lakeshore tonight.
For Friday, we are tracking a Colorado Low moving into the
Great Lakes. The latest trends show this system might be
slightly less organized than previous model runs suggested. The
Euro EFIs for this storm have steadily decreased for QPF and no
longer even register even somewhat unusual in our forecast area.
We still have large spreads in the expected precipitation
amounts, but the main story is that warmer temperatures will
continue to eat into our snowfall totals and it will be rainy.
This system will start off as rain for most of the Northland,
and we could even hear a few rumbles of thunder by Friday
afternoon especially in the evening across NW Wisconsin. PWAT
values are quite impressive for this time of year with a plume
over 1" waddling into the area.
As colder air wraps behind the departing low Friday night into
Saturday, the rain will transition to a wintry mix and
eventually light snow. Because of the warmer thermal profiles,
snow accumulations will be minor, generally remaining under two
inches for the area. This system will also bring a lot of
moisture, so any heavy rain falling on our existing frozen
ground and snowpack could lead to localized runoff and ponding
issues. Expect a rapid warmup to follow for the latter half of
the weekend, melting off any fresh snow. Eventually some cold
air moves back in for next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026
Poor flying conditions will plague the terminals, particularly
KDLH which is expected to stay mostly locked into LIFR
visibility and ceilings due to persistent onshore flow and
freezing fog - maybe a brief improvement this afternoon as the
boundary layer gets mixed a little with daytime heating.
Similarly other sites like KBRD and KHYR may see temporary
improvements to MVFR this afternoon, but widespread IFR to LIFR
conditions will return tonight. Expect east to southeast winds
gusting up to 20 knots today, diminishing slightly overnight
before rain spreads across all sites on Friday morning.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1221 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026
Hazardous conditions continue on western Lake Superior. A Small
Craft Advisory remain in effect. Strong easterly flow will
persist, generating northeast winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up
to 25 knots and waves 2 to 5 feet through tonight. We did see
some gusts to 40 kts this morning at KDYT, but that anemometer
may have froze up and the pressure gradient relaxed, so did not
issue a gale warning. Fog may eventually be a problem tonight.
Winds will shift and eventually become very strong out of the
southwest by Saturday evening, with gale force gusts looking
increasingly likely for the weekend.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ011-
012-019>021-037.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for WIZ001-
002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for
LSZ140>146-148-150.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LSZ142.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...Wolfe
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
