Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
680
FXUS63 KDLH 142333
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
533 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A clipper system will bring a prolonged period of light snow
to the Northland Thursday and Friday. Snow squalls may develop
Thursday evening through Friday morning as colder air and
gusty winds arrive.
- There is a 30% chance of several hours of freezing drizzle or
sleet Thursday morning and early Thursday afternoon over
central and north-central Minnesota.
- Below normal temperatures return this weekend into next week.
Highs in the single digits above and below zero with overnight
lows in the teens below zero are forecast. Wind chills of 25
to 35 below zero are forecast Monday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Main concern for this forecast is accumulating snow, gusty
winds, and colder temperatures starting Thursday morning and
continuing through the weekend.
Surface high pressure will propagate eastward today and
tonight. Skies were mostly sunny and winds will weaken again for
a time tonight. An area of low pressure currently over Yukon
Territory will rapidly move southeastward across the Canadian
Prairies and into the Great Lakes by Friday morning. A warm
front will move eastward across the Northland Thursday, although
temperatures won`t be drastically warmer. Ascent along and east
of the warm front will support an area of snow developing
Thursday morning. Deep moisture and lift should result in
efficient snow production. While there is dry air ahead of the
system to overcome, sublimation should provide sufficient
saturation for snow to reach the ground by around 6 AM in north-
central Minnesota. Visibility will quickly drop to a mile or
less. The initial area of snow will propagate east-southeast
during the morning and move into northwest Wisconsin by late
morning. A layer of drier air aloft will advect into central and
north-central Minnesota late Thursday morning into the
afternoon and may cause a changeover to freezing drizzle or
sleet.
The main trough axis associated with the shortwave trough and
low pressure system will move into the region Thursday evening.
Another round of widespread snow is forecast. Strong surface
pressure falls are forecast along with strong cold air advection
aloft. NAM and GFS snow squall parameters are maximized over
the Dakotas tomorrow night and Friday morning with a narrow
timeframe of snow squall potential over the Northland. The
greatest snow squall potential will be mainly along and west of
US-53 in Minnesota between 00Z and 09Z. This is a bit later in
the day than typical snow squall situations in our area, which
usually require some amount of diurnal heating to generate
enough instability for intense snow showers. The strength of the
low-level frontogenesis, steep low-level lapse rates, and sharp
pressure falls may be sufficient to overcome the limited
instability.
Snow showers will persist Thursday night through Friday as
cyclonic flow aloft and cold air advection continue. Lake-effect
snow will persist over northwest Wisconsin through Friday night
into Saturday. Total snow accumulation over the 48-hour period
will generally be in the 2 to 4 inch range with higher totals in
the northwest Wisconsin snowbelt.
Much colder temperatures are expected for the weekend with
highs 10 to 20 degrees below normal and readings in the single
digits either side of zero. Dangerous wind chills are forecast
Monday morning as another cold front dives southward across the
region. Colder than normal temps will persist for much of the
upcoming week and may drop well below normal again next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Outside of the South Shore snowbelt in north-central Wisconsin,
VFR conditions and light winds are expected through 12Z. An
incoming clipper system brings increasing snowfall chances from
12 to 18Z tomorrow to all terminals. Periods of freezing drizzle
are also possible to end this TAF period, which creates the
slightest potential for a glaze of ice on untreated
surfaces. Southwest winds then veer westerly right at the end of
this TAF period under lingering MVFR sky cover.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 242 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Northwest winds will gradually weaken this evening. Small Craft
Advisories are in effect along the North Shore and the Outer
Apostle Islands and from Oak Point to Saxon Harbor, WI. Winds
back southwesterly Thursday ahead of an approaching clipper.
Conditions will become hazardous once again with gusty winds and
building waves. A cold front will pass eastward across the
water Thursday night and Friday morning which will veer winds
northwesterly. By late Friday afternoon and early Friday evening
wind and waves will become hazardous once again and there is a
20% chance of gales to 35 knots near Grand Marais to Grand
Portage. Winds gradually relax Saturday afternoon and evening.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for
LSZ140>144-148-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...Huyck
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
