Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
875
FXUS63 KDLH 161134
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
634 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light to moderate snowfall continues this morning in northwest
Wisconsin. Snowfall is expected to taper off this morning into
the early afternoon.
- Strong northerly winds will continue this morning into the
early afternoon, especially along the North Shore. A High Wind
Warning remains in effect for southern Cook County with gusts
up to 60 mph possible this morning.
- A fast moving Clipper will bring a chance for accumulating
snow on Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. North-central
Minnesota is currently forecast to have the best chance for
seeing 1-3" of snow.
- A warming trend begins on Wednesday and persists into the
weekend. Temperatures are likely to increase above freezing
and then drop below freezing overnight for most locations.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Strong low pressure continues to bring heavy accumulating snow to
the Upper Midwest early this morning as the center of the low moves
through Michiana. Locally in our neck of the woods, the main impact
from this system is lingering light to moderate snowfall occurring
underneath the trowal associated with this low. With snowfall rates
starting to ease early this morning, opted to cancel the Blizzard
Warning early for all counties in the CWA and replace the lingering
Blizzard Warnings with Winter Weather Advisories. Highest additional
snow amounts of 5-8" are expected around the higher elevations of
the Penokee Range as lake and orographically enhanced snowfall
occurs. Expect lesser amounts elsewhere today in northwest
Wisconsin.
In addition to the ongoing snowfall, the other main impact in our
neck of the woods from the strong low pressure moving through the
Midwest is strong northerly winds. High pressure building over the
Great Plains has developed a tight pressure gradient over the CWA
this morning. Northerly wind gusts of 20-35 mph are expected to
persist this morning into the early afternoon for much of the area.
Along the North Shore, downslope winds have been observed early this
morning as cold air advection has been ongoing, with Grand Marais
recently reporting wind gusts as high as 51 mph. These strong winds
in the lee of the North Shore terrain ridge are forecast to continue
this morning, with most members of the HREF and REFS ensembles
showing the potential for gusts in excess of 40 mph. A High Wind
Warning remains in effect for southern Cook County while a Wind
Advisory remains in effect in southern Lake County. Expect winds to
ease this afternoon and evening as the strong low pressure continues
to move farther downstream.
Attention turns towards the next chance for precipitation arriving
via a Clipper on Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. This Clipper
is expected to develop in northern Alberta tonight and then quickly
dive south into the Upper Mississippi River Valley by Tuesday night,
being propagated by a subtle shortwave. With the CWA being well
within the cold sector of this system, precipitation type will
largely be snow. Global ensembles have most members around the 1-3"
range for snow totals from this system, with highest amounts being
found in north-central Minnesota. The potential for accumulations in
excess of 3" is unlikely (30% chance) from this system, especially
given that the Clipper will be quickly propagating through the CWA.
One thing to keep an eye on with the Tuesday into Wednesday Clipper
is the potential for freezing drizzle early Wednesday morning along
the I-35 corridor towards the North Shore. Model soundings indicate
that a loss of ice aloft combined with low-level saturation could
create a period of several hours prior to the Wednesday morning
commute where a glaze of ice could occur.
Following the departure of the mid-week Clipper, the jet stream is
likely to shift farther north and bring a warming trend to the CWA.
Starting Wednesday and persisting into the weekend will likely
be a diurnal pattern of above freezing temps during the day
followed by sub-freezing temps at night for most locations;
Great maple syrup making weather! A fairly active pattern
continues in the latter half of the week with global models
indicating several Clippers moving through Manitoba and Ontario,
delivering glancing blows of precipitation to the CWA.
Precipitation type from these Clippers will depend on what time
of day/night these systems pass through.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
An area of stratus has been descending into northeast Minnesota
early this morning with cig heights varying between MVFR and VFR
under this stratus. Sporadic flurries are being observed within this
stratus, with visibility remaining VFR. Over northwest Wisconsin,
MVFR cigs continue as low pressure continues to bring snow to the
central and eastern portion of the state. The trend through the
period will be a transition to VFR conditions across the region by
this evening as high pressure builds. Breezy northerly winds will
also be easing by tonight due to building high pressure.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Gales and heavy freezing spray are expected to continue for much of
this morning, along with storm force winds from Grand Marais to
Grand Portage. Wave heights over 10 ft are expected today as well,
especially along the South Shore. Winds will gradually decrease this
evening into tonight with Small Craft Advisories likely needed once
the Gale and Storm Warnings end. Winds will become lighter on
Tuesday as high pressure passes by to the south.
This lull in breezy winds will be short lived though as south to
southwest winds increase on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as
a Clipper passes through the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
Additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed, especially
along the North Shore above Taconite Harbor.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ020.
High Wind Warning until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ021.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for
WIZ003-009.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
WIZ004.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
LSZ140>142-147-148-150.
Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ141.
Gale Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ142-147-148-
150.
Wind Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ142.
Gale Warning until noon CDT today for LSZ143>146.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until noon CDT today for
LSZ143>146.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...Unruh
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
