Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
542
FXUS63 KDLH 301019
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
419 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mild temperatures today. Highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s, 15
to 20 degrees above normal. Record high temperatures will be
within reach at Ashland, Duluth, Brainerd, and Hibbing.
- Widespread snowfall is expected Saturday afternoon and Sunday
across the Northland. Confidence increasing in 2 to 6 inches
for most of the area. There is at least a 40% chance of 2
inches of snow across the Northland and up to a 70% chance of
6 inches or more along the North Shore.
- After a week of above normal temperatures, modified Arctic air
arrives early next week. Overnight lows will be below zero for
most of the area Monday and Tuesday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Temperatures cooled quickly in the Arrowhead last evening and
have been warming or steady since then as clouds and warm air
advection take over. In the past hour temperatures have started
cooling again in central Minnesota and portions of the St. Croix
Valley in Wisconsin as cloud cover decreases and winds become
calm. At 3 AM temperatures were in the upper teens to middle
20s. Light snow was falling in northern Cook County. A few
flurries were also noted on webcams in the Arrowhead.
Light snow at the surface and aloft was found over the
Arrowhead into northwest Ontario this morning associated with an
area of isentropic ascent and weak frontogenesis in a zone of
warm air advection aloft. Snow has had a hard time reaching the
ground and snow amounts are likely only in the trace to half-
inch range. We`ll know more once CoCoRaHS and COOP reports start
to come in over the next several hours. Look for the precip to
propagate eastward and out of the Northland by 9 AM.
Attention then shifts to today`s warming temperatures. The warm
air advection aloft will produce a stout thermal inversion,
which will serve to limit boundary layer mixing to the lowest
few thousand feet today. Clouds will clear out this morning
allowing for ample sunshine. Since the base of the inversion is
only around 1000-1500 ft AGL, forecast temperatures are expected
to overachieve guidance. Leaned on the 95th percentile of the
NBM guidance for max Ts today and that still might not be warm
enough. Temperatures will take a run at Jan 30 high temperature
records at Duluth, Hibbing, Brainerd, and Ashland where current
forecast highs are around 2 degrees below record values for this
date.
A weak cool front will push southward across the Northland
tonight ushering in cooler temperatures for Friday.
Attention then shifts to a clipper system which is forecast to
propagate eastward across the Upper Midwest and western Great
Lakes Saturday and Sunday. Forecast models continue to be in
good agreement with the potential for snow. The 30.00Z GFS is a
slow outlier this morning with precip arriving late Saturday
afternoon while the Canadian, NAM, and ECMWF each bring in snow
earlier in the day. Another oddity is the noteable increase in
ECMWF 6-hour QPF over the Arrowhead from 00-06Z Sunday. The
ECMWF solution is approximately double the other deterministic
guidance at that time with around 0.2" of QPF. While there will
likely be some orographic and lake enhancement to the
precipitation during that time, it seems the ECMWF solution is a
little too bullish for my liking. I`d like to see a bit more
consistency for an increase that large. That QPF amount might
come to pass, but considering the struggle the models have had
this winter overforecasting QPF and snow, I think a more gradual
approach to the QPF/snow increase is warranted.
Snow amount probabilities for the weekend clipper are lowest
over central Minnesota while the Arrowhead has the highest snow
amounts and probabilities. There`s at least a 40% chance of 2
inches or more across the Northland. There is a 20-70% chance of
6 inches or more over the Arrowhead with the highest
probabilities located along the North Shore and the lowest
probabilities farther inland and along the Canadian border over
northern Lake and northern St. Louis counties.
In the wake of the clipper colder temperatures will return for
the start of the work week. Modified Arctic air will slide down
the eastern side of the Rockies across the Canadian Prairies
into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. This cold outbreak
will be short and not as severe as the cold surge a few weeks
ago. Look for high temperatures either side of 0 and overnight
lows in the single digits above to around ten below zero. Wind
chills will be cold, in the 15 to 25 below zero range. With the
updated cold weather thresholds for this winter, those values
would not warrant cold headlines.
Slightly warmer temperatures return for the second half of next
week with temperatures near though slightly cooler than normal
by next Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1110 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025
VFR conditions continued to be widespread across the Northland
and are expected for most into Thursday evening. Webcams and
surface observations reveal light snow or flurries occurring in
spots but the snow hasn`t been widespread to this point.
Guidance forecasts snow coverage to increase over the next few
hours over far north to northeast Minnesota, to the east and
north of KHIB. Some light accumulation, dusting to perhaps an
inch, is possible over the Arrowhead. Brief dips to MVFR will be
possible in the snow, again mainly east and north of KHIB and
KINL.
There will be low level wind that affects KHYR through about
13Z.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 419 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Relatively quiet conditions are expected for the next several
days without much risk of hazardous wind or waves. A clipper
system moving eastward across the region Saturday night and
Sunday will bring stronger winds and higher waves for the
weekend. There is a 5-10% chance of gales to 35 knots from Grand
Marais to Grand Portage Saturday night and early Sunday morning.
Gale chances increase in the wake of the clipper as colder air
returns to the region. There is a 40% chance of gales over the
North Shore waters Sunday night and early Monday morning. The
risk of heavy freezing spray will increase for the South Shore
waters as air temperatures tumble Monday morning.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...Huyck
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
