Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
140
FXUS63 KDLH 221116
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
516 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Some very light snow/freezing drizzle is possible for far
southern (this morning) and far northern (this evening) portions of
the Northland today. Accumulations should remain fairly light. The
best chance for any snow amounts up to an inch are right along the
International Border.
- Fairly benign weather through Wednesday with gradually warming
temperatures. Very slight chance of some light snow Wednesday
morning.
- A larger, messy system could affect the area for Christmas and
Boxing Day. Uncertainty on exact placement and accumulations remains
very high but there is the potential for rain, freezing rain, and
heavy wet snow which could affect holiday travel. There are some
recent indications a second system could follow the first into the
weekend.
- Temperatures well above normal will likely result in afternoon
high temperatures above freezing today, Wednesday, and Thursday.
Exact temperatures later in the week will be determined by storm
track, so they remain somewhat uncertain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Overarching ridging across the central CONUS is moving in early this
morning. Along the front edge of this high pressure a weak warm
frontal feature is pushing across the Dakotas into southern MN.
Recent trends have seen this area of precipitation take quite a
shift south, and what was previously expected to get as far north as
the Twin Ports now may stay out of CWA entirely. Have left some
marginal 15-30% PoPs for areas along southern Pine, Burnett,
Washburn, Sawyer, and Price counties through this morning. This
could manifest as a little light freezing drizzle and rain with very
light ice and snow accumulations. Temperatures warm with incoming
WAA today, and afternoon high temperatures should be a couple
degrees above and below freezing, warmest south. Some light onshore
winds along the North Shore could lead to some cloud and fog
development for the higher terrain along the Sawtooths - this could
be patchy freezing fog and lead to some rime ice development on
trees/elevated surfaces.
A fast moving weak clipper brushes across the International Border
this afternoon and evening bringing a chance for some sensible
winter weather to the Borderlands and MN Arrowhead. This should
mostly be light snow, but there are some concerns that dry air
and a marginal warm nose might lead to some pockets of freezing
drizzle/rain at times. Areas along the border should see 0.25-1"
of new snowfall and a little glaze of ice could mix in here and
there. As that system moves out a tighter pressure gradient
could lead to a short period of stronger northwest winds
Tuesday, enhanced along the North Shore. Have boosted these
northwest winds a little with this forecast update, and areas
along the North Shore will need to be monitored for a potential
Wind Advisory.
Through the rest of the week our jet stream continues to arc further
into Canada bringing an additional push of warm air into the
Northland just in time for the Christmas holiday mid to late week.
There are some indications in the 00Z and 06Z guidance for a little
ridge runner type disturbance to bring some very light snow on
Wednesday morning, but the signal has only just popped up. This
ridging and WAA is expected to result in above freezing high
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday but there is some uncertainty on
just how warm it could get. As has been well discussed in the last
couple AFDs, recent model guidance has done quite the dance with big
shifts in placement and timing of a potential Christmas/Boxing Day
storm - and that little tango is still ongoing with this forecast
update. Ensembles are now largely showing some sort of fairly weak
low pressure system ejecting out of the northern Rockies and zonally
pushing across the Central Plains and Midwest, bringing sensible
weather to the Northland. There is still a HUGE spectrum of precise
solutions however, and a lot of uncertainty yet to deal with in the
coming days. 00Z ensembles run the gamut with everything from the
precipitation shield still staying well to our north and high
temperatures skyrocketing into the upper 30s/low 40s to solutions
where the low stays further south and delivers bands of freezing
rain and heavy wet snow to the area. However, latest guidance does
point to a better chance of precipitation falling than not, which
has resulted in a notable increase of NBM PoPs for the Thursday
afternoon - Friday timeframe. It has also pushed high temperature
forecasts cooler as a more southerly storm track will not allow the
warmest high temperature to get this far north. There is also now an
increased presence of possible QPF for the Saturday-Sunday timeframe
and an indication there could be a bit of a one-two punch as a
secondary system follows the first into the weekend. For now, we`ll
continue to temporize on this storm and encourage you to stay tuned
to the latest forecast while we refresh the page to see what the
latest model guidance has to say.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
All VFR conditions should continue at all terminals through sunrise.
HYR will be on the edge of some possible precipitation this morning
that may drop visibilities and ceilings for several hours before
conditions return to VFR by late morning, but chances for conditions
dropping into MVFR have decreased. At HIB and DLH, some lower
ceilings are possible, but did not have the confidence to make that
prevailing for now. At INL, light snow and possible freezing drizzle
moves into the area Monday evening, bringing MVFR to IFR ceilings
and visibilities. Winds should be fairly light through the forecast
out of the south-southeast through this evening and then start to
pick up at the very end of the TAF period from the northwest.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 244 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Fairly light easterly winds pick up today, but should largely stay
below 15-20 knots. Winds shift to become southwesterly into Tuesday,
and then northwesterly by Tuesday midday. These northwesterly winds
could see a quick 6-12 hour period with gusts of 20-30 knots,
especially along the North Shore, and a Small Craft Advisory will
likely be needed across all of Western Lake Superior. With warmer
air temperatures, widespread heavy freezing spray is not expected.
Winds swing back around from the south Wednesday, but aren`t
expected to be very strong.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Levens
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
