Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
106
FXUS63 KDLH 162324
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
524 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Colder temperatures move in this afternoon into tonight with
light snow showers continuing for most locations through
tonight. Additional snow accumulations will be 2 inches or
less for most.
- Moderate to heavy snowfall is expected to occur along the
South Shore today through Saturday, with heaviest
accumulations in the higher elevations near the lake. A Winter
Storm Warning is in effect for Iron, Bayfield, and Douglas
Counties through Saturday.
- Very cold temperatures are expected this weekend into next
week. Wind chills in the -30s to -40 are possible on Monday
morning, which is expected to be the coldest morning in the
forecast period.
- There will be additional chances for light snowfall as a
series of Clippers move through on Sunday and again on Tuesday
night into Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Active weather conditions this afternoon across a large portion of
the CWA as a cold front is currently sweeping through. On the
synoptic scale, vertically-stacked low pressure is currently
centered near Lake Superior and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.
Across a large portion of the CWA, including all of northeast
Minnesota, the main story today is the rapidly falling temperatures
following the cold frontal passage and lingering snow showers. For
the MN side of the CWA, today`s high temp is occurring right around
now and temps are expected to plunge into the single digits tonight.
Widespread light snow showers continue through the afternoon into
tonight as widespread FGEN at 850mb and saturation around the DGZ
continues. Additional snow accumulations for most of the area will
be 2 inches or less with snow character forecast to be light and
fluffy.
Of note is a small (20%) chance for snow squalls in northwest WI
this afternoon as the cold front moves through. A band of strong
FGEN at 925mb along the cold front combined with steep 3-6km lapse
rates around 8 degC/km and higher negative omega could lead to
locally strong snow squalls that could rapidly reduce visibility to
1/4 mile or less. While confidence in snow squalls isn`t high, it
will be something to monitor this afternoon.
Along the South Shore of Lake Superior, conditions are expected to
be much more active this afternoon through Saturday as northwest
winds behind the cold front bring CAA from an Arctic airmass. The
hazards along the South Shore today through tomorrow will be coming
in two forms: lake effect snow and gravity wave snow in the lee of
the North Shore terrain ridge.
For the lake effect snow: Northwest winds following the cold fropa
will bring rapidly decreasing temps this afternoon into tonight as
an Arctic airmass settles over the CWA and Upper Midwest this
weekend. 850mb temps will be decreasing to around -15 degC tonight,
which is forecast to produce 150-300 J/kg of lake induced CAPE as
lake sfc temps hover around 1-2 degC. While snowfall rates won`t be
particularly heavy, topping out at 0.5" per hour on Saturday
morning, the prolonged duration of lake effect snow is expected to
lead to heavy accumulations in northern Iron County around the
Penokee Range between this afternoon and Saturday evening.
Additional accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher
amounts up to 11 inches are expected by Saturday evening. A
Winter Storm Warning is in effect for Iron County, with a Winter
Weather Advisory for Ashland County. Expect lake effect snow to
diminish on Saturday night as northwest winds shift to the
southwest ahead of an approaching Clipper.
For the gravity wave snow: Northwest winds produced an area of
moderate snowfall in northern Douglas and Bayfield Counties earlier
this morning, which has continued into the afternoon. Based on the
current winds and shape of this snowfall, this is the result of a
gravity wave occurring in the lee of the North Shore terrain ridge.
The forcing associated with this gravity wave snowfall is well
exemplified in the 1000-850mb omega from the RAP, which shows a
strong area of sinking motion along the North Shore and lift on the
western shore of the Bayfield Peninsula into northern Douglas
County. This is progged to continue through tonight and much of
Saturday as northwest winds continue and low-level saturation
persists. Additional snowfall of 4 to 7 inches is expected in
northern Douglas and Bayfield Counties, with highest amounts most
likely in the higher elevations of Bayfield County where orographic
enhancement will help elevate snow totals. A Winter Storm Warning
has been issued for these counties due to this gravity wave
snowfall.
As winds shift to the southwest on Saturday night, both the gravity
wave snowfall and lake effect snow will come to an end. This wind
shift is occurring ahead of an approaching Clipper, which is
expected to move through the Upper Midwest on Sunday. This Clipper
will be bringing another round of widespread light snow to the CWA,
with snow totals likely to be in the 1-3" range with locally higher
amounts to 4". Since temperatures are likely to be below the
DGZ, snow character will likely be fine and light with elevated
SLR of 20:1 or higher. This Clipper is currently on track to
exit the area by Monday morning with lake effect snow likely
lingering into early next week as cold northwest winds persist.
The main concern early next week will be very cold temperatures and
wind chills well below zero. Low temps on Monday and Tuesday
mornings will be in the negative teens for most locations.
Breezy northwest winds on Monday morning are forecast to drop
wind chills into the -30s across much of the CWA with isolated
pockets of -40s possible in the Arrowhead. Cold Weather
Advisories will likely be needed on Monday, which is expected to
be the coldest morning in the forecast period in terms of wind
chill. Looking ahead to next week, cold temps linger as an
Arctic airmass remains over the north- central CONUS. Additional
snow showers will be possible, notably late Tuesday into
Wednesday. Given that temps will be very cold, accumulations
will likely be on the light side.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 519 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
MVFR to IFR conditions across northeast Minnesota through
tonight in stratus and scattered snow showers. IFR conditions
will be more widespread across northwest Wisconsin with lake
effect snow downstream of Lake Superior tonight into Saturday
morning. Expect conditions to slowly improve through the day on
Saturday across northeast Minnesota, with continued lake effect
snow downstream of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 226 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
A cold front is currently passing through this afternoon, with
northwest winds increasing. Gusts of 25 to 30 knots are expected to
develop and persist this afternoon through most of Saturday.
Waves will build to around 4 to 6 feet along the South Shore as
well. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all nearshore
zones (except Chequamegon Bay). Downslope winds are likely to
develop this evening into tonight along the North Shore, which could
lead to brief and localized gales right next to the shoreline from
Silver Bay to Grand Marais.
Winds briefly lessen Saturday night ahead of another clipper system.
A stronger cold front should bring an additional round of strong
winds with gales possible (50-60% chance) Sunday night through
Monday morning. While gales may subside Monday morning, breezy
conditions should prevail through Monday night, keeping conditions
hazardous for small craft.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Saturday for WIZ001-002-
004.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for WIZ003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CST Saturday for LSZ140.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST Saturday for LSZ141>148-
150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...PA
MARINE...Unruh
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
