Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
025
FXUS63 KDLH 160550
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1150 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Multiple rounds of strong winds are expected through this
week: Tuesday afternoon and evening (west to northwest
direction, Wind Advisory in effect), Wednesday afternoon and
evening (southerly, not quite as strong), and through the day
Thursday (northwest, likely strongest of the week).
- A messy system will bring rain, freezing drizzle, and heavy
wet snow to the Northland Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday. Uncertainty is still high on exact precip types and
locations.
- Temperatures warm above freezing Tuesday and again Wednesday
evening/early Thursday morning before crashing back down below
zero by Friday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
A fairly quiet, mostly sunny afternoon with near average
temperatures should be enjoyed today, as this tranquility will
not be the norm for the rest of the week. Several back to back
low pressure systems are expected to move along the Canadian
Border with tight pressure gradients and ample moisture sources.
The first system tomorrow passes to our north and brings a
mostly dry front across the area through the day, bringing a
quick blast of northwest winds on the backside screaming across
the Northland. Gusts of 25 to 45 mph are expected, possibly over
50mph on the North Shore. A Wind Advisory has been issued for
portions of north-central MN and the North Shore from Tuesday
afternoon through Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning.
Along the North Shore, there is a non-zero chance for gusts over
60mph, which, if they materialize, could warrant the need for
an upgrade to a High Wind Warning there. Those winds should calm
quickly into Wednesday morning.
This Tuesday system will provide stout WAA tomorrow and should
allow temperatures to skyrocket well above normal, with
afternoon high temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. With
such a well-chilled snowpack, there likely wont be too much
widespread melting, but areas that see some melt on sidewalks
and roads could lead to slick spots as temperatures go back
below freezing overnight.
The highlight system of the week pushes into the area
Wednesday, keeping the above normal temperatures going as we
likely stay in the warm sector ahead of this low. Due to the
timing of this system, the high temperature on Wednesday and
Thursday will likely be non- diurnal and close to each other
around midnight, so we`ll warm through most of the day Wednesday
and cool through the whole day on Thursday.
This Wed-Thu system is robust for one on a clipper-like track,
as most solutions show a central pressure less than 980-990mb
and NAEFS and ECE are at the bottom of climatology for mean MSLP
percentiles. It should also have multiple moisture sources as
it pulls from the atmospheric rivers hitting the Pacific
Northwest and manages to access Gulf moisture as well. This
system will likely be able to produce heavy wet snow and very
strong winds. However there are currently several different
clusters of solutions when it comes to the track of this system
that will affect our sensible weather. A more northerly track
option (Euro Ensemble, some Canadian ensemble members) would
keep much of the heavy precipitation to our north, with a
rain/snow mix along the warm front Wednesday PM and then a
significant dry slot into Thursday (possible freezing drizzle)
before some light snow arrived on the backside along with
plunging temperatures. A more southerly track (GEFS ensemble and
some Canadian members along with Euro AI ensemble) would pull
more of the precipitation shield into our area with a heavy snow
potential across the north. Either way we`ll likely see some
rain/snow mix beginning late Wednesday afternoon that
transitions into all snow by Thursday afternoon, possibly with a
period of freezing drizzle in between. Currently the best
chance for a couple inches or more of snow is along the
International Border. As this system pushes east Thursday PM,
temperatures will plunge back below zero by Friday morning.
Depending on exactly what kind of precipitation any given area
receives some icy slick spots could develop.
Southerly winds pick up through the day Wednesday, but compared
to Tuesday and Thursday these will be more on the "blustery"
side with gusts of 20-30mph. Those winds turn westerly Wednesday
evening into Thursday, and some of the strongest winds of the
week are expected through the day Thursday out of the west-
northwest. Widespread gusts of 30-45mph are likely with stronger
winds along the North Shore. Another round of Wind Advisories
could be needed if not superseded by winter headlines.
Don`t worry, the active weather is done after Thursday. We
should see a very brief lull in activity overnight into Friday
morning before another clipper passes over us, bringing a chance
for some light snow accumulations. Onshore winds along the
North Shore could lead to some enhanced amounts there but that
will be very dependent on exact track which is still uncertain
at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
Ascent ahead of an approaching warm front will bring lower
ceilings into the terminals early this morning. Two very strong
low-level jets will affect the terminals today and this
afternoon. The first jet is a southwesterly LLJ with a core wind
speed around 60 kts. The winds aloft will weaken slightly after
that jet axis passes east of the terminals and then strengthen
again as northwesterly second jet arrives later today. A cold
front will move southeastward across the region this afternoon
and tonight which will steepen lapse rates and allow strong
winds aloft to mix down to the surface. The resultant increase
in sustained winds will reduce the LLWS risk.
There is a 20 to 30% chance of freezing drizzle at INL, HIB,
and DLH before 12Z. Will continue to handle with a PROB30
mention since there appears to be considerable dry air between
the cloud layer aloft generating precipitation and the low-level
stratus. Skies may scatter out for a time during the day before
MVFR CIGS return with the cold front later today. The cold air
advection will also be accompanied by light snow showers and
flurries. Will handle this potential with a VCSH mention for
now. MVFR or IFR visibility is possible with those snow showers,
although as of this forecast, the potential for those
conditions is less than 30%.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 811 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
Only slight adjustments were made to wind and wave forecasts for
tonight through Wednesday. The main change to the forecast was
to add Small Craft Advisories in for western Lake Superior
nearshore waters ahead starting early Tuesday morning ahead of
the Gale Warnings. Winds and gusts will initially ramp up out of
the southwest before turning westerly late Tuesday afternoon
and evening.
Previous Discussion: Numerous rounds of gales and possibly storm
force winds are expected through this week. The first round
arrives Tuesday afternoon and evening with northwest winds
behind a mostly dry cold front. The strongest winds should be
along the North Shore but all of Western Lake Superior will
likely see gusts in excess of 35 knots. Gusts in excess of 45
knots are possible for the North Shore. A Gale Warning is in
effect. Wind should die fairly quickly going into Wednesday
morning but the lull wont last long, with southerly winds
picking up through Wednesday afternoon. Another period of gale
force gusts is possible here too. Into Thursday morning those
winds remain strong but become northwesterly and strengthen even
further. By Thursday afternoon and evening gale force winds are
likely and storm force gusts are possible, especially for the
North Shore. Winds should calm going into Friday morning.
Additional Gale Warnings and Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings will
likely be needed, especially for Thursday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 9 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ010-011-018.
Wind Advisory from 5 PM Tuesday to 3 AM CST Wednesday for
MNZ020-021.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday
for LSZ121-148.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 AM CST Tuesday for LSZ140-
141.
Gale Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for
LSZ140-141.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for
LSZ142>145.
Gale Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to midnight CST Tuesday night
for LSZ142>145.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM CST Tuesday for LSZ146-
147-150.
Gale Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to midnight CST Tuesday night
for LSZ146-147-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...Rothstein
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
