Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
737
FXUS63 KDLH 141929
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
129 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
Listed Chronologically - largest event of the forecast at the
end.
- Light snow moves into the Arrowhead this evening and
overnight, producing minor accumulations of around 1 to 2
inches in Cook County.
- Dangerous marine conditions develop tonight on Lake Superior
with Gale Warnings and Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings in
effect.
- A warming trend begins Monday, peaking Tuesday with highs
reaching the upper 30s and even the mid 40s across the
Northland.
- A potent storm system targets the region Wednesday night into
Thursday, bringing strong winds and a messy mix of rain and
snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Arctic high pressure is slowly shifting away from the region
this afternoon. Temperatures will struggle to climb out of the
single digits across much of the Northland for the rest of the
day. Despite the sunshine, wind chills remain biting, hovering
between 10 and 20 degrees below zero. If you are heading out,
continue to dress in layers. As the high center drifts east, we
will see winds turn southwesterly, marking the beginning of a
significant pattern change.
A weak weather disturbance tracks across Ontario tonight, clipping
the Arrowhead region. This will bring a quick shot of snow to areas
north of the Iron Range, with the tip of the Arrowhead potentially
seeing up to 2 inches of accumulation. Elsewhere, clouds will
increase but precipitation should remain sparse. Southerly surface
winds will be gusty and prevent temperatures from bottoming out
as severely as previous nights.
The big story for the start of the work week is the warm
up. Forecast guidance pushes warmer air into the region
starting Monday, with highs reaching the teens and 20s. By
Tuesday, an Alberta Clipper passing well to our north will allow
even warmer air into the area, likely pushing temperatures into
the 30s to mid 40s. This will feel significantly milder than
recent days.
This warmth sets the stage for a dynamic mid-week system. A
strong low pressure system is expected to impact the region
Wednesday night through Thursday. With mild air in place,
precipitation may start as rain or a wintry mix before
transitioning to snow. Strong winds are also likely with this
system, making for hazardous travel conditions. Plenty of
moisture content streaming from the anonymously rich Pac NW
moisture stream. One thing to keep an eye on is if it taps into
the Gulf moisture before it impacts the Northland or after it
passes to the east of us. That`s the largest variable in the
equation that we need to figure out as it will drastically
change the QPF expected from this system. The good news is that
the signal for this system is pretty consistent among guidance,
so its likelihood of occurrence is high just don`t know the
specifics on QPF amounts and the temperature profiles. In
addition to the precipitation potential, a lot of guidance is
suggesting storm force wind gusts on Lake Superior with this
system with a 70 kt 850 mb LLJ wrapping around the system which
is extremely strong with a 30 year return interval in NAEFS
climatology.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals for
the next 24 hours. The primary concern is Low Level Wind Shear
(LLWS) developing tonight as a strong wave crosses overhead.
Expect shear of 40 to 45 knots around 2000 feet at most sites
(INL, HIB, DLH, BRD, HYR) between 03Z and 09Z. Surface winds
will be gusty from the southwest though will decrease in speed
and turn to the northwest after 12Z Mon.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 128 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Conditions deteriorate rapidly this evening across western Lake
Superior. Southwesterly winds will increase significantly,
creating dangerous conditions for mariners. Gale force gusts of
35 to 40 knots are expected tonight. Combined with the bitter
cold air, heavy freezing spray will develop, capable of rapidly
accumulating ice on vessels. Wave heights will build to 4 to 8
feet, with occasional waves over 10 feet along the North Shore.
Winds diminish Monday morning but likely ramp up to gales again
by Tuesday afternoon.
Storm force winds possible on Thursday!
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
for LSZ121.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM to 9 PM CST this evening for
LSZ140>148-150.
Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM CST Monday for
LSZ140>148-150.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM
CST Monday for LSZ145>147-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...Wolfe
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
