Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
810
FXUS63 KDLH 220759
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
159 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Winter Weather Advisory continues for Iron County, WI. Expect
an additional 2-5" through midnight tonight.
- Widespread flurries today with some more robust snow showers
possible in the afternoon. These snow showers may be
accompanied by brief reductions in visibilities and a rush of
wind.
- Cooler temperatures persist through Monday. Wind chills ten to
twenty below will be possible Monday morning.
- Clipper system for Tuesday will bring widespread snow chances
to most of the Northland. The North Shore and Arrowhead will
receive the lion`s share with a 60-70% for 4"
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Current Conditions/Today:
Cyclonic flow aloft persists today as an upper level trough
digs through Appalachia. Stratus has once again overtaken the
region, but the question will be how well does it stick around
through the day? Embedded within this cloud deck we can see some
anthropogenic plumes spreading out from the Iron Range on both
satellite and radar. With even colder air expected to filter in
from the north today I expect this activity to continue. To
account for this we have drawn in some PoPs with light
accumulations of less then half an inch for areas downstream.
The rest of the area will see similar conditions as yesterday.
The stratus cloud deck resides within the DGZ and will
occasionally drop some flurries at times. Today however, we look
to have some steeper low level lapse rates in the afternoon
with 8C/km up through 800mb. This may lead to some HCRs and some
bursts of heavier snow at times. These snow showers would be
short-lived but can quickly reduce visibility as well as put out
a brief rush of wind.
Ongoing Lake Effect:
Cold air continues to filter in on northwesterly winds with 850
temps around -20C. This cold air streaming across Lake Superior has
resulted in delta Ts creating instability on the order of 300 J/kg.
Snow showers are already present over the South Shore and will
continue through until Monday morning when drier air moves in and
shuts down the process. Until then rates will be fairly light around
a quarter an inch or less per hour, but with the overall prolonged
nature of the event we will keep the Advisory going for Iron County.
Expect an additional 2-5" inches before the Advisory concludes
at midnight tonight. Additionally, northwest flow over the
terrain ridge of the North Shore has lead to a gravity wave set
up for the South Shore. Light snow accumulations were increased
across northern Douglas and Bayfield, but not enough to warrant
any headline issuances.
Next Clipper:
A fairly cold start to the work week with wind chills ten to twenty
below zero Monday morning. Temperatures in the afternoon are expected
to stall out in the teens and low twenties. Overnight is when we
expect our next chance for some widespread snow. A clipper dives out
of the Canadian Prairies late Monday and moves across the Northland
for Tuesday. Q vector divergence brings the best forcing into the
region after midnight which is when we see our PoPs climb to 40-60%
across northern MN. The system become occluded as it moves into
Ontario with another low developing in the Upper Midwest. This set
up will allow for southerly winds to provide some lake enhancement
to the North Shore boosting snow totals. This forecast package does
have a slight increase in snow but the overall picture is relatively
the same. Our southwest areas around Brainerd will not see much with
values increasing as you head northeast. An inch or two will be
possible for most locations with the highest totals being in the
Arrowhead and the North Shore. Probabilities of at least 4" of snow
along the North Shore are around 60-70%. One pitfall for this
upcoming system will be the trailing cold front. Most of the
guidance has this front staying south of our CWA but there are a few
models that move it through the Brainerd Lakes region. This band
would likely have a decent amount of FGEN forcing to go along with
it which would lead to better chances for accumulating snow.
Midweek:
Our clipper system departs Tuesday night with surface high pressure
filling in behind for Wednesday. Temperatures will be back around
seasonal normals but we will see a steady increase over the next
couple days with highs climbing into the 40s by Friday.
Precipitation chances have fallen off quite a bit. Down to less then
10% from 30% for most of the area. Looking at the GEFS and EPS there
still remains high uncertainty with low pressure placement for
Wednesday night. But most solutions are coming in farther south
leading to a decrease in us seeing any action for the Northland.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1126 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
MVFR stratus is starting to make its return across the Northland
this evening with the cloud deck blossoming from the north and off
the northwest winds of Lake Superior. Occasional flurries will be
possible under the cloud but accumulations will be minimal. As we
head into the afternoon hours we will see some increasing winds out
of the northwest with some HCRs. This will lead to the occasional
snow burst that will momentarily plummet visibilities. Activity
should wane in the evening hours with potential for VFR conditions
to return.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 151 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
North to northwest winds continue gusting to around 25-30 kts for
western Lake Superior. Small Craft Advisories are in place through
Sunday into Monday morning. This update has added a Freezing Spray
Warning for the Outer Apostle Islands as wave heights grow to 3-6 ft
in frigid temperatures. Winds and wave start to taper off
Monday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for WIZ004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CST Monday for LSZ140.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LSZ141>146.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for LSZ148-150.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for LSZ150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
