Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
907
FXUS63 KDLH 080733
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
133 AM CST Sun Mar 8 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Toasty temperatures today as southwest winds push afternoon
temperatures into the 50s for most locations. Light rain will
be possible across northern MN Sunday afternoon and evening.
- More snow chances will arrive late Monday and linger into
Wednesday as a baroclinic zone sets up over the Northland.
Overall expecting light accumulations at this time with the
probability of 4" around 20-30%.
- Potentially more impactful system for late Thursday into
Friday as a strong low pressure moves from the Pacific
northwest into the Great Lakes.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 AM CST Sun Mar 8 2026
Current Conditions:
A clipper system is moving across central Ontario this morning
providing some light echoes on radar across the Northland. Surface
observations and web cameras indicate that this small wave of
precipitation is not amounting to much and at its current pace
will largely exit to the east before mid morning. Overall,
minimal impact with northern MN seeing up to a dusting of snow
as they wake up to start their Sunday morning.
Today/Tonight:
Through the day we will see ample warm air advection as another
system approaches out of the Canadian Prairies. This systems warm
front will arch through the region and we will see southwest winds
push our high temperatures into the 50s with some 60s possible along
our southern tier of counties. The next clipper dives through the
Red River Valley and through northern MN Sunday evening. The better
forcing and precipitation shield currently looks to be on the
Canadian side but we still have a 20-30% chance of seeing some
activity across our north. With such a strong warm nose in place and
the warm temperatures expected this afternoon the primary
precipitation type will be rain. The system quickly departs to the
east before Monday sunrise.
Start of the work week:
The clipper for Sunday evening leaves early Monday morning with
cooler air filtering in from the northwest. Surface high
pressure will keep activity at bay for Monday with high temps in
the 50s for the inland portions of NW WI but in the 30s across
northern MN.
Our synoptic pattern becomes a little more complicated as we head
into Tuesday. A vertically stacked low over Baja will send an upper
level jet west to east over the Northern Plains with cross barrier
flow leading to leeside cyclogenesis over the Rockies. Track of this
low still remains uncertain and to add to the mess the 00Z suite of
deterministic guidance is also wanting to generate a separate low
over the Canadian Prairies. This pairing will at the very least lead
to a baroclinic zone setting up over the Northland. System
progression may be slow leading to a more prolonged duration of
precipitation. The southern system looks to keep most of the warm
air at bay leading to snow being the primary precipitation type.
Some mesoscale forcing in the way of a 700mb FGEN band further adds
to the uncertainty of the mid week system. QPF plumes largely favor
the lower end of solutions, generally less then 0.2" but there are
enough members closer to the 0.5" that its worth paying attention
to. For now, we are looking at snow starting late Monday with
chances lingering into Wednesday morning. Probability of 4" are
around 20-30% for most of the region with the western counties being
less then 20%.
Latter half of the week:
Quite an interesting set up that is starting to emerge in the
Thursday - Friday timeframe. Ensembles are showing a strong low
pressure traversing from the Pacific northwest towards the Great
Lakes region. Low tracks still remain high variable this far out but
early indications are largely taking the majority of the tracks
through MN. Deterministic guidance shows a good amount of ingredients
coming together with the divergent sector of an upper level jet
overhead with favorable lift within the DGZ. Plus given the track of
the low is from the Pacific northwest it stands to reason that it
would carry better PWATs then the clippers we`ve seen this week.
Still a ways out but definitely worth watching for as the
trends over the last 24 hrs continue to go up. PoPs have gone
from 30% to 60% with snow probabilities also increasing.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026
A quick-moving clipper system moving west to east across the
region overnight will bring a brief period of light rain/snow to
northeast Minnesota, but only affecting INL. Minimal to no snow
accumulations expected. Have only included a tempo group of
MVFR conditions in light snow. Gusty winds up to 30 kt and
widespread low-level wind shear overnight, with the gusty
surface winds persisting into the daytime for most sites at
18-25 kt. Low-level wind shear diminishes by mid morning.
Another round of light VFR rain is possible late afternoon into
tonight, mainly in north-central and northeastern Minnesota.
Another round of LLWS is expected to accompany this
precipitation, but surface winds may be strong enough to reduce
the shear, and have only included it where winds will be
strongest aloft.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 126 AM CST Sun Mar 8 2026
Southwesterly winds continue to impact western Lake Superior with
gales up along the North Shore. These Gales will taper off later
this morning. Winds speeds across the lake will briefly subside this
evening but will ramp back up again overnight, however, not
expecting gales. Hazards will be winds gusts up to 30 kts and wave
heights of 2 to 4 ft. These conditions persist until Monday
afternoon.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for LSZ140-141-150.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for
LSZ142>146-148.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...Britt
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
