Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
253
FXUS63 KDLH 301123
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
523 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A quick round of light to moderate snow is expected today, with
widespread accumulations of one to two inches by this evening. There
is a low (10-20%) chance for some freezing drizzle following the
snow this afternoon and evening.
- More quick rounds of snow may affect portions of the Northland
Wednesday morning and Thursday PM with light accumulations possible.
- Persistent lake effect snow is likely for the South Shore anytime
the wind is out of the north-northwest this week. Additional
accumulations of a couple tenths to several inches are possible
through the week, greatest in the higher terrain of Bayfield,
Ashland, and Iron County.
- Colder temperatures continue for much of the week after today.
Thursday morning should be one of the coldest this week, with
actual temperatures well below zero. A Cold Weather Advisory
may be needed.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
The forecast for the week ahead is bringing a real "hey look at
that, it`s winter again" theme to the Northland with chilly
temperatures, on/off chances for snow across the region, and
persistent rounds of lake effect on the South Shore. This is driven
by a synoptic setup through Saturday that keeps an upper level low
over Hudson Bay with ridging over the Rockies, putting us on the
cooler and active portion of a northwest to southeast oriented sub-
tropical jet stream. Guidance is in very good agreement on the upper
level pattern through this whole week, the discrepancies just come
from parsing out which moisture impulses will go where.
The first is arriving this morning, with quick clipper system moving
into northwest Minnesota at the timing of writing. There should be a
first push of snow this morning through midday, favoring the
greatest accumulations for areas along and southwest of a line from
Int. Falls to the Twin Ports to Hayward. A quick second round on the
backside of the weak surface low should fill in the gaps bringing
afternoon and early evening snow for the MN Arrowhead and across NW
WI. Guidance continues to be in very good agreement that much of the
area should see QPF totals of 0.05-0.15", with high snow to liquid
ratios making for a fairly light, fluffy snow, and should shake out
to 1-2" across the region, maybe slightly enhanced for the South
Shore. Snowfall rates of up to a 0.5"/hour could mean a couple hours
of reduced visibilities and quick degradation in road conditions.
Due to a loss of ice aloft, there could be a little patchy freezing
drizzle that follows this morning`s snow but the forcing is very
weak, so any accumulations would be minor and on elevated or
untreated surfaces.
A few more weak impulses look to catch at least portions of the
Northland through the rest of the week. The first should be a fairly
narrow band into Wednesday morning that has recently trended
slightly north, bringing PoPs and a chance for up to a 0.5" of snow
for the Brainerd Lakes to the I-35 corridor. Another quick round of
snow continues to be picked up by global ensemble guidance for
Thursday afternoon and evening on the backside of a departing
surface high pressure. There remain variations in exactly where that
might track but it would be another chance for a couple tenths to a
inch of snow.
An efficient push of colder air is expected through the week, with
most days seeing high temperatures in the teens or colder and
overnight lows below zero. The coldest night looks to be Wednesday
night into Thursday with the classic recipe of high pressure, a
Canadian air mass, and mostly clear skies. Actual temperatures
should fall into the teens below zero with wind chills in the
negative 20s to 30s. Interesting, this will be in between the
departing Wednesday system and the incoming high pressure, so some
of the area may still be under a tighter pressure gradient leading
to semi elevated northwest winds. The strongest of those wind speeds
will be along the North Shore, where they could be further enhanced
by a katabatic circulation. There is currently a 20-40% chance of
wind gusts exceeding 45mph and this time period will need to be
watched for not only Cold Weather Advisories but also a possible
North Shore Wind Advisory.
850mb temperatures should fall to around -20C following today`s
clipper through at least midday Thursday. With north to
northwesterly winds in that time period, this should allow for the
lake effect snow machine to keep chugging for the South Shore,
bringing additional light accumulations of a couple tenths to
several inches for the usual lake effect snow belts in Douglas,
Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron counties. The passing systems on
Wednesday and Thursday will have the ability to inject a little more
support and moisture into ongoing lake effect, making for transient
periods of increased intensity.
Global guidance suggests that this week`s synoptic pattern should
break down a bit through the weekend and into next week, with some
sort of disturbance potentially moving through in the Sunday-Tuesday
timeframe, but that`s about the furthest we can speculate on that
for now.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
Conditions are deteriorating this morning as snow moves into the
area. Visibilities at or just below 1SM are very likely at all
terminals during the heaviest snow with a MVFR ceiling. Snow should
come to an end through this afternoon, but the MVFR deck, with
pockets of IFR ceilings may persist into the evening. Light snow may
linger into the evening at HYR as the terminal will be on the edge
of some lake effect. Winds go light for a short period into the
beginning of the snow event, then becoming west then northwest
through the day with some gusts of 15-25 knots possible later this
afternoon and evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 401 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
We`ll see a brief reprieve from strong winds through most of today
before the northwesterlies start up again into Wednesday morning,
strongest along the North Shore as usual. Widespread gusts of 20+
knots are likely, with a 50-70% chance of gale force gusts on the
North Shore Wednesday evening. A Gale Watch is in effect for
Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage beginning Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday morning. Elsewhere, small craft advisories will
likely be needed. An area of snow moves across Western Lake Superior
today, and then lake effect snow will likely continue through mid to
late week along the South Shore, which may lead to areas of reduced
visibilities.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning
for LSZ140-141.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Levens
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
