Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
389
FXUS63 KDLH 232348
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
548 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slight chance of some light snow or flurries late tonight and
Wednesday morning, mainly across the Arrowhead.
- A larger, messy system could affect the area Dec 25-26. There
is the potential for rain, freezing rain, and heavy wet snow
which could affect holiday travel. The best chance for snow
accumulations of several inches or more is over the MN
Arrowhead, highest in Cook County. Locations south of US-2
could see a light glaze of ice accumulation.
- A second system could follow the first for the weekend with
another chance for mixed precipitation and strong winds.
- Above normal temperatures are expected through Saturday, with
Friday and Saturday being the warmest of the 7 day period with
widespread highs near or above freezing. Below normal
temperatures return Sunday - Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025
The story through much of this week will be the broad, flat ridging
over much of the CONUS and troughing along the West Coast, with
weak shortwaves riding over the ridge, bringing waves of Pacific
moisture eastward. The first of these will arrive tonight.
But first, surface high pressure will quickly slide across the
Upper Midwest this afternoon and tonight, with winds diminishing
this evening. Temperatures will fall early, reaching lows in the
single digits and teens before or around midnight. Winds swing
around to the south as the surface high quickly exits to the
east. This allows for weak warm advection, with temperatures
warming through the overnight hours, and isentropic lift as a
weak shortwave rides over the ridge. This shortwave brings a
wave of Pacific moisture, but the deepest moisture remains well
to our north along with better forcing. Over the Northland, a
substantial dry layer and limited surface moisture will limit
precipitation. There is weak lift over the Arrowhead, and weak
and brief onshore flow that could help enhance some light snow
Wednesday morning. CAMs continue to force out spotty
precipitation, while global models are much more stingy. Will
carry low pops and a trace of snow for parts of the Arrowhead,
but do not expect impacts. Behind this wave, a broad surface
high will slide from central Manitoba toward southern Ontario.
Attention turns to the Christmas Day system, with a weak low
coming out of the northern Rockies and sliding southeastward
toward the central Mississippi River Valley. Ahead of a stronger
shortwave riding through the ridge, southerly flow sets up warm
advection west of the surface high now centered north of Lake
Superior in southwest Ontario. With only a weak surface low,
and it being rather removed from the Northland, forcing will be
driven by the shortwave aloft and isentropic lift. This system
brings a larger wave of Pacific moisture, and combined with a
40-50kt low level jet, most of the area should see measurable
precipitation. North of the Iron Range will see light snow
moving in during the afternoon. There will be some dry air to
overcome, and precipitation will likely hold off until early
evening near and south of a line from Brainerd to Duluth.
Precipitation will start out as mostly snow, but with the strong
LLJ and warm nose, a transition to a wintry mix is expected
Thursday night, especially south of US-2. There could be
additional enhancement along the North Shore with strong south
to southeast winds Thursday night. Best snow accumulations will
be in Arrowhead, especially Cook County, where up to 6 inches is
possible. Further south, snow accumulations will be limited,
and given the transition to freezing rain, a light glaze of ice
is possible south of the Iron Range and across northwest
Wisconsin. We are still 48+hrs from impactful precipitation, and
some uncertainty on how much moisture is available. Will hold
off on any headline decisions today.
A surface high quickly passes by Friday, with weak southerly
flow returning Friday night. The board flat ridging over the
CONUS is finally pushed eastward for the weekend, with a trough
amplifying over the Canadian Pacific Coast and crossing the
northern Rockies and Plains. This wave arrives in the Northland
Saturday into Sunday, with a surface low tracking eastward
across the northern Plains, and pivoting toward Hudson Bay. Just
how far north the low tracks remains in question, as model
guidance diverges on track and where better moisture fields set
up. Low level temps are unseasonably warm, with a significant
warm nose expected. If moisture in in place, a mix of precip
types is possible across the north at onset, and rain across
most of the area by Saturday afternoon. A strong cold front
arrives Saturday night, with a transition to snow into Sunday.
Temperatures remain below normal through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 549 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period under
mid to high-level clouds and high pressure. A weak surface cold
front moving through Wednesday morning on the back side of the
high pressure could bring a light wintry mix of snow or sleet
(10-30% chance), primarily to northwest Wisconsin and the
Minnesota Arrowhead. The best potential is in the 24.08Z to
24.14Z timeframe, with PROB30 mentions at INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. There
is a fairly prominent dry layer in the lower 5-7 kft of the
atmosphere, so there is a decent chance precipitation may
sublimate or evaporate prior to reaching the ground. Winds
remain at or under 10 kt for most throughout the TAF period,
aside from gusts to around 15-20 kt in northwest Wisconsin. LLWS
is also briefly possible at HIB and INL Wednesday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 156 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025
Strong northwest winds will continue to diminish through the
afternoon and evening, as high pressure arrives from the west.
After a fairly benign day Wednesday, stronger northeasterly to
easterly winds move in Thursday. Looking ahead, there are
chances for more strong winds through the weekend with another
passing system.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
LSZ140>142.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...HA
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
