Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
525
FXUS63 KDLH 210945
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
345 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Extremely dangerously cold temperatures are expected through
the weekend, with multiple days below zero for Thursday
through Monday morning. Actual low temperatures will be in
the 20s to 40F below zero, and minimum wind chills as low as
the 30s to 50s below zero. The coldest timeframe will be
Thursday night through Saturday.
- A couple areas of light snow pass over the region today, with
some light wrap around snow possibly lingering into Thursday
morning. Accumulations around 1 inch or less are expected.
- Light lake effect snow and clouds may persist along the South
Shore into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Clipper With Light Snow Today - Early Thursday:
Seeing some light snow showers this morning as some weak
surface/mid-level troughing moves across the Northland coupled
with a mostly saturated atmospheric profile, the lowest few
thousand feet of which are located in the dendritic growth zone.
There may be a couple hour break in snow for NE MN around
sunrise early this morning and in northwest Wisconsin mid
morning before additional shortwave energy associated with
another approaching Clipper system brings in widespread snow
from the northwest today along and behind a front. Some wrap
around light snow is expected into at least this evening behind
the front, with additional shortwave energy possibly keeping the
light snow going into Thursday morning. Around 1-1.5" or less
are forecast for the region, with the lowest amounts around 0.5"
in far northern Minnesota.
Temperatures will be relatively mild today, with highs topping
out in the teens, though wind chills will remain in the single
digits above and below zero. Gusty northwest winds move in
behind the front this afternoon into tonight, starting the trend
of substantially colder air for the next several days beginning
tonight.
Extremely Dangerous Cold Late This Week - Weekend:
A brutally cold arctic airmass is expected to work over the
northern CONUS behind the departing Clipper and cold front
tonight through this weekend as 850 mb temperatures drop into
the -20s to -30s degC tonight through Sunday night. At the
ground, this will translate to a prolonged period of
temperatures below 0F for most locations in the Northland from
Thursday through Monday morning. Northwest winds will initially
be breezy for Thursday into midday Friday, resulting in the
coldest wind chills being in the late Thursday into midday
Friday timeframe, when wind chills of -40F to -55F will be
possible. Even a few mph stronger wind gusts than the current
forecast could push these wind chills even colder! Winds
eventually weaken later Friday into this weekend as the deep
high pressure--possibly as strong as 1048 mb--slides through.
For context, this strong of a high pressure is near the maximum
of the NAEFS CFSR reanalysis climatology for this time of year.
The coldest actual air temperatures (not wind chills) will be
Friday night into Saturday morning, and lows of -30F to -40F for
areas away from Lake Superior. Near-Lake Superior locations
should be slightly less cold in the -20s. There is a 20% chance
that the low temperatures Saturday morning could dip below -40F
in far northern Minnesota.
Several cold weather headlines have been issued given high
confidence in this extremely dangerous cold spell occurring. For
tonight through daytime Thursday, we have issued a Cold Weather
Advisory for most of central to northeast Minnesota and an
Extreme Cold Warning for far northern Minnesota. The southern
extent of the Cold Weather Advisory was expanded south due to a
limited period of daytime moderation to the temperatures/wind
chills before they come crashing down again late in the day
Thursday into Thursday night. Northwest Wisconsin was left out
of the Cold Weather Advisory for tonight/Thursday morning due
less cold lows in the single digits below zero largely keeping
wind chills there warmer than -25F. Starting Thursday evening
and persisting through midday Saturday, the entirety of the
Northland has been placed under an Extreme Cold Watch as limited
daytime moderation in wind chills is expected for Friday. The
expectation of light winds and slightly less cold days on Sunday
into Monday morning should more likely place those days in the
wind chill range for Cold Weather Advisories relative to the
brutally cold days on Friday and Saturday.
South Shore Light Lake Effect Snow:
The very cold 850 mb temperatures/airmass late this week and
weekend should keep light lake effect going for the South Shore.
Given how dry the airmass is expected to be--PWATs of around
0.05" or less, near the bottom of climatology--expect snow
rates to remain light.
Next Week:
We do see some relatively "warmer" temperatures heading into
next week, though temperatures will still be below normal
through the end of the month. Expect highs in the single digits
to teens above zero and lows largely in the single digits below
zero. Can`t rule out some periodic South Shore light lake effect
snow continuing into next week. Otherwise, don`t expect much if
anything in the way of accumulating snow for the Northland late
this week into early next week. Global model ensembles do hint
at a Clipper system moving through the Upper Midwest region
sometime in the next Tuesday night to next Thursday timeframe,
but confidence in timing and snowfall amounts with that system
remains low.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1119 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
An expansive area of MVFR stratus with occasional VFR to MVFR
visibilities in light snow associated with low pressure passing
through the Mid-Mississippi valley will continue into tonight.
More widespread light snow arrives with a Clipper system this
morning through afternoon, with some scattered snow showers
lingering into the evening on the back side of the cold front in
the colder air. Expect visibilities in the daytime snow to dip
to IFR (70% chance) and then return to MVFR to VFR following the
cold front depending on whether or not a snow shower impacts a
terminal. Ceilings will be MVFR to IFR with the second round of
snow, with MVFR lingering into the end of the TAF period after
the cold front passes. Winds increase out of the northwest
behind the cold front late this afternoon and evening with gusts
of 18-25 kt.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 344 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Southwest wind gusts remain below 20 kt into daytime Wednesday.
However, wind gusts increase out of the northwest behind a
passing cold front Wednesday evening with stronger gusts to
around or greater than 25 kt largely persisting into early
Friday. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for this
evening through Thursday afternoon, but will likely need
extending into Friday morning. Areas of lake effect snow could
lead to locally reduced visibility, particularly for the South
Shore late this week into the weekend. Very cold temperatures
will also lead to pockets of freezing spray along the South
Shore, particularly in the Outer Apostle Islands for tonight
through Friday morning where a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning has
been issued.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
Thursday for MNZ018>021-025-026-033>037.
Extreme Cold Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday
morning for MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
Thursday for MNZ010>012.
WI...Extreme Cold Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday
morning for WIZ001>004-006>009.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Thursday for LSZ121-140>148-150.
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
Thursday for LSZ142.
Extreme Cold Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday
morning for LSZ142.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST
Friday for LSZ150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Rothstein
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
