Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
106
FXUS63 KDLH 151812
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1212 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A clipper system will bring a prolonged period of snow to the
Northland today into Saturday. Snow squalls may develop this
morning, and again this evening through Friday morning as
colder air and gusty winds arrive.
- There is a 10-20% chance of several hours of freezing drizzle
or sleet this morning and early afternoon over central and
north-central Minnesota.
- Below normal temperatures return this weekend into next week.
Highs in the single digits above and below zero with overnight
lows in the teens below zero are forecast. Wind chills of 25
to 35 below zero are forecast Monday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1212 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
Light snow continues to propagate southeastward with the initial
band of frontogenetic forcing aloft. Visibility as low as 3/4
mile was reported at KELO as snow moved through and webcams
showed rapid accumulation on roads. Dry air continues to be a
challenge particularly south of a Waskish to Hibbing to Two
Harbors line. The lowest visibility and greatest snow amounts so
far have been north of that line with limited snow farther
south. mPING reports in the past hour revealed a snow/sleet mix with
the more intense echoes. Rimed dendrites may be the culprit
instead of true sleet.
Next wave of snow showers stretched across the southern Canadian
Prairies into northwest Ontario and will advance southeastward
this afternoon and evening. Upstream obs were a mix of precip
types ranging from snow and sleet to freezing drizzle. Will keep
a close eye on those showers as the propagate into the area.
PREV UPDATE Issued at 1018 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
Considerable depth of dry air between the ground and cloud
layer limited snow so far this morning. Radar echoes suggest
heavier snow than is actually occurring. Visibility north of a
line from near Cook to Isabella, including Ely and Tower, were
as low as 2 miles so far this morning. The forcing for ascent
with this first wave of snow is moving across the area faster
than anticipated and is smaller in spatial extent than earlier
forecasts indicated.
Because of this we decreased snow amounts this morning into the
afternoon. Where snow is falling, roads quickly become snow
covered. Motorists are encouraged to remain vigilant and reduce
speed and following distance as necessary when conditions
warrant.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
Currently over the Northland, a surface ridge axis extends
northeastward through the region, with low stratus off western
Lake Superior spreading over portions of northwest WI with
light snow/flurries falling. To our west, mid to high level
clouds are moving into north central MN, ahead of the next
clipper. A surface low is centered well to our north over
northern Manitoba, with warm front extending southward into the
Central Plains. The ridge axis quickly shifts to the east this
morning as a shortwave advances across the Canadian Rockies and
into the Plains. This will push the warm front into the
Northland, ahead of the southeastward moving surface low.
Recent CAMs show a band of snow showers developing up stream and
moving SSE into the Northland later this morning, associated
with significant pressure falls and a band of frontogenesis
ahead of the trough, and steep lapse rates and saturated columns
aloft. This could lead to locally heavy snow showers, with
snowfall rates of 0.5-1.0 inch per hour, and sudden reductions
in visibility. There is still dry air at the surface that we
need to overcome, and uncertainty amongst model guidance on if,
and where, these heavier snow showers are most likely. Will
likely cover the potential impacts with a SPS this morning, and
assess trends once activity develops upstream.
There is a low chance of freezing rain/sleet mixing in at times,
particularly across the Brainerd Lakes area, as a warmer nose
nudges in from the southwest behind the warm front while a
pocket of drier air pushes across the Red River Valley ahead of
the shortwave. Other than a very light glaze, no ice
accumulations are expected. The warm nose and drier air is not
as pronounced further northeast, and expect all snow east of the
US 53 corridor. Along the North Shore, with increasing
southwest winds, there could be some enhanced snowfall from
Tofte northward this afternoon.
As the shortwave and cold front arrive tonight, lapse rates
steepen again and could see another round of heavier snow
showers this evening that could quickly reduce visibilities with
a 20-30% chance of snowfall rates of 0.5-1.0 inch per hour.
Another SPS or advisory might be needed. Otherwise, as the
shortwave closes off over the Great Lakes, light snowfall will
persist over the Northland into Saturday. Totals though Saturday
morning will approach 3-6 inches for locations north of US-2.
Locally higher amounts are expected over northwest WI, due to
lake effect showers.
The first of two cold air surges arrives Friday night. Weekend
highs will be 10 to 20 degrees below normal with readings in the
single digits either side of zero. Dangerous wind chills are
forecast Sunday night into Monday morning as another cold front
dives southward across the region. Colder than normal temps will
persist for much of the upcoming week and may drop well below
normal again next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
Snow showers and snow pellets will continue to propagate
southeastward this afternoon. Precipitation with the first wave
ended at INL, HIB, and BRD. The next round of showers was over
southern Manitoba and adjacent areas of northwest Ontario and
will advance southeast through tonight. Expect reduced
visibility as the heavier snow showers move past the terminals.
Snow showers with IFR visibility are likely Friday although the
coverage should not be widespread. Opted to include PROB30s for
the timing and location uncertainty. Wind gusts will increase
sharply behind a cold front which will advance southeast across
the region early Friday morning.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 258 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
Winds increase from the southwest this morning ahead of an
approaching clipper. Conditions will become hazardous with gusty
winds and building waves. Gusts of 25-30kts are possible in all
nearshore zones. Heavier snow showers are possible mid morning
into the afternoon, causing quick reductions in visibility. A
cold front will pass eastward across the water tonight and
Friday morning which will veer winds northwesterly. By late
Friday afternoon and early Friday evening wind and waves will
become hazardous once again and there is a 30-40% chance of
gales to 35 knots near Grand Marais to Grand Portage. Winds
gradually relax Saturday afternoon and evening.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for
LSZ140>148-150.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Huyck
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...HA
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
