Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
145
FXUS63 KDLH 271523
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
923 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Freezing fog and freezing drizzle/freezing rain showers this
morning may create a glaze of ice accumulation. The Winter
Weather Advisory may need to be extended into the afternoon.
- The Sunday into Monday system has escalated rather
dramatically this morning. The potential for heavy snow has
expanded to all of northwest Wisconsin and the I-35 corridor
in Minnesota, with lighter snowfall amounts to the west and
north.
- Sharply colder temperatures and strong winds arrive Sunday
with wind chills dropping well below twenty degrees below zero
by Sunday night with strong northwest winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 514 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Current Conditions/This Morning:
We continue to get little waves of showers moving across
northern Minnesota this morning, which have the potential to lay
down areas of icing on roads and elevated surfaces. On top of
that, we have a large area of fog over much of the Northland,
which may also lay down some ice, producing slippery roads for
this morning`s commute. The Winter Weather Advisory issued by
the evening shift has been extended through noon today, thinking
that during the afternoon hours air temperatures rise above
freezing and ice accumulations stop and we can let it drop. Have
left the Fog advisory as is, but we are likely to see reduced
visibilities through much of the day today, even if they are not
as low as they are now.
Sunday into Monday:
This storm, which we have been watching for several days has
suddenly gotten rather interesting. The surface low track in the
models has become more consistent from both a run to run and
model to model perspective, and shows a dramatic strengthening
trend from noon Sunday through noon Monday. The surface low
should develop over eastern Colorado today, then move east
across the plains to cross northern MO into IL Sunday, then into
lower MI and across Lake Huron Sunday night into Monday
morning. This system will not only have an inverted trough that
extends up into the region, but should also develop a nice
TROWAL over MN and WI Sunday night into early Monday. The whole
system appears significantly stronger than it did yesterday
morning, with the low pressure center deepening more quickly and
getting deeper by 12z Monday than on previous runs, and within
the ensembles, more members are getting deeper than they were
before. This has served to push more moisture and lift in our
direction, increasing winds and precipitation amounts in the
Sunday night into Monday time frame. In addition, we will have
more lake effects to work with, enhancing snowfall totals all
along the South Shore, where before they were limited to mainly
Ashland and Iron counties. With that, have expanded the Winter
Storm Watch to all of northwest Wisconsin, plus Pine and the
Carlton/South St. Louis zone, with precipitation beginning as
early as 15z Sunday, and lingering until 18z Sunday. I
anticipate we will need Advisories into the Brainerd Lakes and
along the Iron Range as well. The cold air moving in behind this
system will cause temperatures to fall most of the day on
Sunday, with overnight lows below zero Sunday night, and some
single digit high temps on Monday. The strong winds with that
cold air advection may also produce wind chill values in the 15
to 25 below zero range Monday morning.
Next Week:
Temperatures will remain near to below normal through the early
part of next week. Another clipper will dive across the region
on Tuesday, which may bring some light accumulating snow. There
is another pool of cold air that slides into the area for the
latter half of the work week. Ahead of this it looks like there
will be another clipper, but this one may track to our south and
not bring any snowfall to the area. Temperatures will be well
below normal for Wednesday through Friday, with high temps in
the single digits once again.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Flight conditions are poor and are expected to remain poor
through the TAF period, generally IFR/LIFR, with fog and patchy
drizzle early this morning. Widespread visibilities of a mile or
less this morning will slowly improve slightly into this
afternoon. Some improvement to MVFR is possible this afternoon,
but ceilings will remain stubborn, even if visibilities improve
for some sites all the way to VFR. Winds of less than 10kts this
morning, then picking up out of the southeast on Saturday, at 5
to 15 kts, only to diminish again after 00z. Visibilities to
deteriorate once again after 00z, and are likely to drop to less
than a mile after 06z tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Update at 919 AM
Originally Issued at 919 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Update - The potential in storm force gusts near and just
offshore of Grand Portage has increased where the previous Gale
Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Watch this morning.
Southeast winds of 5 to 15 knots to produce generally quiet
conditions on the lake today. A strong winter system moves
across the lake Sunday through Monday, with an extended period
of strong north-northwest winds for Sunday night and Monday
before they diminish again late Monday and Monday night.
Widespread gales are increasingly likely Sunday night and
Monday. These strong winds are likely to build large waves,
especially along the South Shore, along with concerns for
freezing spray. Gale and Freezing Spray Watches are in effect
for Sunday night through Monday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ010>012-
018-019-021-025-026.
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MNZ034>038.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning
for MNZ037-038.
WI...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning
for WIZ006-007.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
morning for WIZ001>004-008-009.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for
LSZ121-141>148-150.
Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for
LSZ140.
Heavy Freezing Spray Watch from Sunday evening through Monday
evening for LSZ140-141-145>148-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...NLy
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
