Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
919
FXUS63 KDLH 190547
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1147 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow and areas of freezing drizzle will persist
overnight. Snow gradually tapers off Thursday.
- Another system may bring light snow to parts of northwest
Wisconsin and the Arrowhead Thursday night into Friday,
possibly lingering into Saturday.
- A cool and active weather pattern looks to remain in place
into next week with some snow chances possible.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Winds are still gusting 30 to 45 mph along the North Shore.
Snow intensities decreased over the past several hours. Area
webcams and visibility reports suggest blizzard conditions have
ended. We replaced the Winter Storm Warning and Blizzard Warning
for the Arrowhead with a Winter Weather Advisory valid until
noon Thursday. Additional snow accumulation of 1 to 6 inches are
expected overnight and Thursday morning.
GOES-East nighttime microphysics imagery suggests there may be
a loss of cloud ice over portions of the Northland. We received
a few reports of drizzle or freezing drizzle during the
afternoon and evening. Think the potential for pockets of
freezing drizzle to intertwine with persistent light snow and
flurries overnight.
High-res and short-term models don`t seem to have a good grasp
on the low pressure system. None of them appear to resolve the
localized enhanced snow over northwest Wisconsin and portions of
east-central Minnesota. Therefore there is a low confidence on
when the precipitation will shut off. Winter Weather Advisories
may need to be expanded/extended away from Lake Superior.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Low pressure is currently centered around east-central
Minnesota with snow and some light mixed precipitation rotating
around it. For most of the region, the snow or mix has become
light in intensity. The one exception is up the North Shore,
where the strongest lift and moisture transport are keeping a
steady stream of heavier snow ongoing. Snowfall rates have been
up to around 3 inches today, with reports of over two feet of
snow. The surface low will continue moving slowly east and
eventually north going into Thursday. This axis of heavy snow
may move north a little bit this evening, but with the low
essentially taking a track over the snow-buried areas, the
hardest-hit areas are likely to continue to see persistent
light, but accumulating snow persist the next day and a half or
so. It is likely that the hardest hit locations in the high
terrain will top 30 inches by Thursday.
With this update, some headline changes were made, which
essentially trim up the warned areas and confine them to the
Arrowhead while most other places are now under a Winter Weather
Advisory. Expect some light snow and perhaps some freezing
drizzle for a lot of places with this wraparound snow into this
evening. In general, accumulations up to an inch can be expected
except higher amounts around the periphery of Lake Superior.
As far as the strong winds go, low pressure taking that
northeast and eventually northerly track will gradually suppress
wind speeds as we go into this evening. Blizzard conditions
along the North Shore should very slowly decrease tonight, but
we will see gusts up to 50 mph yet early this evening.
There is another storm that might just clip our region Thursday
night into Friday and into this weekend. Another Colorado-style
low is looking to track northeast somewhere through Wisconsin
into Friday. Model trends have favored a more southeasterly
track, but wherever it goes, the northwestern quadrant of this
storm is looking to feature a very potent mesoscale heavy snow
band that will probably drop heavy snow over a relatively narrow
swath of land (say about 50-60 miles in width or so). Where
exactly this low tracks will be crucial in where this snow
actually falls. Right now, though, it`s looking like parts of
Price and perhaps Iron county may be grazed by it and see a few
inches of snow. In addition, as this low moves northeast into
the UP, it is looking like an inverted trough with some
persistent frontogenesis may set up to the northwest of the low
Friday and perhaps lingering into Saturday. This may bring snow
chances into the Arrowhead, perhaps accumulating to a few inches
of snow on top of what`s already fallen there from the current
system.
The general flow pattern Saturday and Sunday is looking to
become northwesterly. There may be a little bit of lingering
light lake-effect snow for the South Shore, but otherwise
generally cool and quiet weather. Some broader ridging to our
west early next week may set us into more of an active clipper
pattern. We may see some snow chances next week with some models
suggesting a clipper system passing through around mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Light snow showers will continue on and off throughout the
night. Enhancement from Lake Superior will lead to IFR/LIFR
visibilities at DLH from heavier snowfall for the next few hours
before winds start to shift to the north to northwest. BRD may
see some freezing drizzle mixed in with snow through the early
morning as moisture aloft decreases. More chances for snow
returns tomorrow with weak forcing left on the back side of the
system. These could lead to brief periods of MVFR ceilings and
visibilities.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 319 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
A few storm force gusts may persist for a couple hours, but
winds are expected to decrease to gales this evening and
eventually to gusts below 30 kt by midday Thursday as a low
pressure system passes through. Expect conditions to be
hazardous for small craft through most of Thursday, then winds
lighten up a bit with gusts below 20 kt for all except Grand
Marais to Grand Portage Thursday night. Snow can be expected
tonight into Thursday, and some more snow is possible Friday
into Saturday at times. The northeast winds turn northwesterly
Friday and some breezy conditions with gusts to around or just
over 20 kt possible.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Thursday for MNZ012-020-
021-037.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ010-
011-018-019-025-026-035.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Thursday for WIZ001>004.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM CST Thursday for LSZ140>146.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Thursday for LSZ142.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Thursday for LSZ148.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST Thursday for LSZ150.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Huyck
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...JDS
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
