Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
376
FXUS63 KDLH 090531
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1231 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Several inches of snow possible Monday night through Wednesday
morning, highest near Lake Superior.
- A strong clipper system is possible late Thursday into Friday
and could bring more snow and a rain/snow mix to the Northland
- More snow is possible over the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026
The Northland will experience unusually warm conditions for the
rest of the day today as southwest winds pull temperatures into
the 50s. Rain showers will develop this afternoon and evening along
the International Border. These showers are likely to be scattered
in coverage and could feature convective elements, as there is enough
instability (up to ~300 J/kg MUCAPE) present to support a few brief
heavier showers at times through tonight.
We`re still expecting an active and wintry week this week with
the next chance for precipitation arriving Monday night. After a
day of cold air advection on Monday, bringing cooler temperatures
to the region, a quick-hitting low pressure system will pass by
to our south with an area of frontogenesis that is expected to
produce a quick couple inches or so of snow. There is decent
model agreement that the band of snow should track across the
Brainerd Lakes to Twin Ports and into the South Shore and a ways
up the North Shore (mainly south of Silver Bay). The track
could still change a little bit, probably moving a little more
south if anything with high pressure to our north bringing in
some dry air.
A potentially more impactful system arrives Tuesday night into
Wednesday, and there is currently quite a bit of model
uncertainty with this one as far as the placement and intensity
of snowfall to the north and northwest of the low. Im leaning
in favor of most of the EURO ensembles that suggest a more
southerly track, targeting northwest Wisconsin with some
accumulating snow. The low pressure center should track pretty
well south of us (through southern Wisconsin / northern
Illinois), and true Gulf moisture influences should remain
largely to our south as well. In addition, drier air streaming
in from the north suggests that a more southerly track is more
likely if anything. We do have potential for several inches of
snow from this system Tuesday night into Wednesday the way
things are looking now. Advisory-level amounts seem the most
plausible for some places, particularly northwest Wisconsin. We
will have northeasterly flow, but how far north the synoptic
band of snow makes it will determine what effect the lake will
have on enhancing or limiting snow amounts. If the band is far
enough north, there could be some lake-enhancement along the
south shore, but if it tracks further south, dry air working its
way in from Canada may cut off any lake-enhancement processes
entirely.
Another potent clipper system is looking likely Thursday night
into Friday, though its very uncertain where exactly the low
may track. This one could have a fairly intense swath of snow
associated with it somewhere in the region, though it will be
moving through here fairly quickly. Some more advisory-level
snow is possible with this, though we will have to keep an eye
on this since we could get some lake and terrain enhancement as
well, most likely along the North Shore. Some rain may mix in
with the snow at times, especially at onset on Thursday.
Going into the weekend, we only have a fuzzy picture of what
may actually happen, but the pattern is still looking to be
active and we should still have plenty of cold air in the
Northland. More snow may be possible over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026
A clipper is moving through the area tonight, with scattered
showers and light rain stretching from INL to HIB to BRD. Other
than INL, not all areas will see rainfall given the scattered
nature of the activity. Cannot rule out TS, but lightning
activity has decreased over the last 20-30mins. This clipper
will continue quickly eastward and be east of the area by 6-7AM.
Current cigs are VFR, and could see a brief period of MVFR cigs
at INL through sunrise. Otherwise, VFR cigs expected through the
day Monday. Southwest winds will be gusty at times tonight,
before turning to the northwest. Gusts up to 25kts are possible.
A strong low level jet within the first few thousand feet of
the surface will create a period of low- level wind shear at
most terminals as a clipper passes through the region.
Monday night, another wave will bring lowered cigs and
additional chances for precipitation.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026
A brief lull in breezy conditions is expected early this
evening, but winds pick up again from the southwest later in the
evening with gusts to around 25 kt that will persist through
Monday morning. Wind direction will switch to northwesterly
during that time as a cold front passes through. Small Craft
Advisories are in effect. Wind speeds are expected to decrease
below 20 kt through the afternoon. Winds switch to northeasterly
with another system passing through that could bring a bit of
light snow. Gusts up to around 20 kt, maybe locally higher.
Winds remain northeasterly through Wednesday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT today for LSZ140-141.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ142-
147-150.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for
LSZ143>146-148.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...JDS
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
