Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
145
FXUS63 KDLH 161224
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
624 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continuing light snow with a few snow squalls possible today,
along with moderate to heavy lake-effect snow along the South
Shore through Saturday.
- Another clipper system on Sunday may bring an inch or two of
snow along with blustery winds.
- Bitterly cold air moves in this weekend, and a very cold
morning with wind chills approaching 30 to 40 below is
expected Monday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
A somewhat narrow and persistent area of moderate to
occasionally heavy snow is ongoing, stretching across St. Louis
County into Douglas, Bayfield, and Washburn counties this
morning. Models have been struggling to keep up with this until
the most recent runs. Snow totals already this morning within
the snow have ranged from around 3 to 6 inches, and we could
conceivably see locally 1 to 3 inches in addition. Central St.
Louis and eastern parts of southern St. Louis County, over into
lakeshore Lake County, and then into Douglas/Bayfield counties
will be most likely to see some continuing moderate to
occasionally heavy snowfall rates this morning for several more
hours. Therefore, Winter Weather Advisories have been extended
into parts of St. Louis and Lake counties through noon this
morning. Additional snow showers are expected to develop both
within and outside of counties with headlines this morning, but
they should be a bit less organized than this current area of
snow is.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
A somewhat organized area of light to moderate snow is affecting
a good portion of the region this morning. This is associated
with broad synoptic lift as an upper-level trough passes through
along with steep (~7.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates that have
been supporting some quasi-convective-looking radar echoes.
Expect this main area of snow to drift southeast through the
morning, dropping generally an inch or two of additional snow.
Another more organized area of snow may impact the region
through today as a strong cold front passes through, which right
now is located over northwest Minnesota. Gusty winds will
accompany strong frontogenesis, and thus the threat for snow
squalls that could briefly drop visibilities to or below a
quarter mile with the combination of falling and blowing snow
will be possible today (about 20% chance). There will be plenty
of light snow ongoing at times as well, so the nature of any
snow squalls that could cause major impacts (i.e. going from
completely clear conditions to heavy snow) will probably be
rather limited. Nevertheless, there is at least a small chance
for those conditions.
Otherwise, for most of the region, expect occasional light snow
or snow showers. Additional accumulations through tonight up to
an inch or two are expected.
Lake-effect snow on the South Shore is expected to gradually
ramp up through this afternoon as winds become northwesterly and
cold air starts to move in with the cold front. The heaviest
snow there is expected tonight through Saturday morning. No
changes to headlines with this. There is a bit of a trick that
could change the forecast a bit, and that`s wind direction and
localized convergence. If winds retain a more westerly component
tonight, heavier accumulations may end up more across the border
in the UP. Winds will probably waffle around a bit though so
that northern Iron County gets some heavier bands at times.
Therefore, the Winter Storm Warning will remain in effect. Further
west, a combination of light lake- effect and gravity wave
enhancement could drop up to 4-5 inches locally, so the Winter
Weather Advisories will remain in effect there through Saturday
morning.
Cold air moves its way in on Saturday and temperatures fall
below zero Saturday night. There is pretty good agreement on
another clipper system passing through on Sunday. Models are
consistent on a widespread ~inch of snow with locally higher
amounts along the South Shore. We`ll see how that pans out with
such a cold air mass in place. An inch of snow may be on the
high end of potential with this one.
Bitterly cold air moves in Monday night, and we`ll be left with
a tight pressure gradient behind the clipper as it departs. So,
we`ll be looking at the combination of 20-30 mph wind gusts
along with temperatures falling into the teens below zero (at
least on the Minnesota side). Downsloping winds along the North
Shore could be higher than 30 mph. With that, we should see wind
chills falling as low as -30 to -35 for most places, and perhaps
to around -40 for parts of northeast Minnesota (especially the
Arrowhead). Cold weather headlines will likely be needed.
We should have another cold Tuesday morning, but at least with
lighter winds as high pressure passes by to the south. We could
still see wind chills down to -20 to -30 though.
Our clipper pattern looks to remain through the rest of the week
with potential for one to pass through around Wednesday,
potentially bringing a little break from the bitter cold, but
also maybe a little light snow. Temperatures are looking to
remain on the cold side in general going into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 533 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Snow persists from just east of HYR to DLH to HYR. This area of
snow is expected to generally continue moving southeast this
morning, but there will also likely be some more snow showers
moving in from the west that should impact BRD this morning and
also new snow showers that may develop pretty much anywhere this
morning. As such, there is very low predictability with this
forecast. Expect varying visibilities and ceilings at least
through this morning with snow shower activity with potential
for some improvement this afternoon, though snow is still
expected to linger at times through the period. Expect
predominantly IFR/MVFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities. Brief VFR
conditions will be possible at times. Northwest winds will
strengthen into this afternoon, and even if snow shower activity
decreases a bit, blowing snow should keep visibilities reduced
to MVFR often.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 251 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
As a cold front passes through today, winds are expected to
become northwesterly and gusty. Gusts to around 25 kt are
expected to develop and persist today through most of Saturday.
Waves will build to around 4 to 6 feet along the South Shore as
well. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all nearshore
zones (except Chequamegon Bay) with this update.
Winds briefly lessen Saturday night ahead of another clipper
system. A stronger cold front should bring more strong winds and
probably also gales Sunday night through Monday morning. While
gales may subside Monday morning, breezy conditions may prevail
through Monday night, keeping conditions hazardous for small
craft.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ019-020-
037.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ001.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for WIZ002-003.
Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Saturday for WIZ004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CST
Saturday for LSZ140.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM CST
Saturday for LSZ141>148-150.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for LSZ142.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDS
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
