Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
275
FXUS63 KDLH 201728
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1128 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light to moderate snow comes to an end this morning, with
strong west winds expected through this afternoon. Gusts of 30
to 45 mph are possible which could lead to widespread blowing
snow. Chilly temperatures continue through the weekend.
- Next chance for precipitation arrives early Monday morning
into Tuesday with mixed precipitation possible. Any
accumulations look to be fairly light.
- Temperatures warm through the week with widespread high
temperatures above freezing likely Wednesday and Thursday.
Some precipitation is possible mid to late week but
uncertainty remains very high.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
A triple barreled low stretching from southwestern Ontario to the
Oklahoma panhandle is responsible for our sensible weather early
this morning, with light snow across central MN and into the MN
Arrowhead and NW WI. This snow should continue to shift eastward
fairly quickly and fully depart the area by mid morning. Some
southwesterly flow over Lake Superior is leading to lake/terrain
enhanced snowfall for portions of the North Shore and a Winter
Weather Advisory will remain in effect for southern Cook County
through 6AM. On the backside of the northernmost low pressure
(currently sitting ~992mb), a tight pressure gradient will bring
another blast of westerly winds across the Northland through this
morning, with peak wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph by early afternoon.
There is some suggestion that wind gusts of over 45 mph are possible
(50-70% chance) for the Twin Ports and North Shore and a Wind
Advisory may be needed should that signal continue. All this wind
will combine with the light snow that has recently fallen and could
lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow through early this
evening.
Those westerly winds should manage to usher in some more cold air
across the area, with overnight lows falling back below zero for
most of the region into Sunday morning. Outside of being a bit on
the chilly side, Sunday should be a fairly pleasant day with chances
for sun and minimal wind as high pressure sits over the area for
more than 6 hours.
We get back on the weather roller coaster into the week, however.
Large scale ridging over much of the central CONUS will allow for
WAA and a push of moisture as a low squeezes out of the mid Rockies
through the day Monday. Most models are in agreement that this
should push a warm frontal feature into the Upper Midwest Monday
morning which could bring a quick little burst of snow of an inch or
so, but there are still some disagreements on where this might be.
At this point, it looks to be a south-of-Highway-2 event but some
models keep it south of our CWA almost entirely. Through the day
Monday a clipper skirting along the Int. Border picks up some of
that synoptic support and moisture, pulling chances for
precipitation across northern MN Monday afternoon into Tuesday
morning. Models are still trying to work out just how much
atmospheric support this portion of the system might have and where
the column will be fully saturated. Most solutions are fairly weak
with light QPF of a trace to 0.1". With the WAA there is some
concern for a mix of precipitation that could include freezing
drizzle, sleet, and snow.
Through the rest of the week our jet stream continues to arc further
into Canada bringing an additional push of warm air into the
Northland just in time for the Christmas holiday mid to late week.
This will likely result in above freezing high temperatures
Wednesday/Thursday but there is some uncertainty on just how warm it
could get. Global model solutions for late week system tracks are
all over the place, which will influence where on the temperature
gradient we fall. Some of the warmest solutions show possible highs
over 40F , but on the cooler side we`re looking at highs only a
couple degrees over 32F. There is some suggestion of a chance of
precipitation in the Thursday-Friday time period but the ensemble
tracks on this system absolutely shotgun across the Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest leaving us with very low confidence on any
particular solution.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
MVFR ceilings occasionally lifting to VFR will continue through the
afternoon. Continued cold air advection behind the cold front is
leading to isolated snow showers across the Iron Range. This
activity is likely to continue as we head into the afternoon hours
before tapering off as we lose daylight. In addition, strong winds
to 35 kts at the surface will continue to blow around the snow
we received overnight. Combined, there will be up and down
visibilities at HIB and INL, reaching as low as IFR throughout
the afternoon. Winds will decrease this evening and overnight
as winds back to the southwest.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 323 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Strong southerly winds early this morning will continue to turn to
the southwest and then the west through the day today. Wind speeds
and gusts will likely rapidly pick up through this morning into
early afternoon with the westerly winds and widespread gales are
expected. A couple storm force gusts could be possible in the Outer
Apostle Islands. Along with cooler temperatures, heavy freezing
spray is also likely especially for the South Shore and Apostle
Islands. Winds and waves should taper off through this evening and
into Sunday morning. After this event, there are no expected gales
for at least a couple days.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ121-141>148-
150.
Gale Warning until 4 AM CST Sunday for LSZ140.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 PM CST this evening for
LSZ140.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 AM CST Sunday for
LSZ145>148-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
