Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
306
FXUS63 KDLH 031725
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1125 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Increasing moisture and a daily freeze/thaw cycle will lead to
morning fog and stratus over the next few days.
- A more active pattern arrives heading into the weekend with
precipitation chances returning starting Friday. Rain, rumbles
of thunder, a wintry mix and a bit of snow snow are all
possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026
Strong high pressure was located off the Eastern Seaboard and
extended westward into the central CONUS. A stationary boundary
was analyzed across northern Minnesota into North Dakota.
Southerly winds around the periphery of the high to the east
were leading to warm air advection across the Mississippi Valley
into the Plains. This was leading to the development of low
stratus across northeastern Minnesota and northwestern
Wisconsin. Some patchy fog was also developing as well.
This will be the trend for today and tomorrow with fog and/or
low stratus developing during the early morning hours and slowly
eroding away through the day. Highs will be well above normal in
the 40s and 50s which will lead to snowmelt during the day. This
will then add low level moisture that will aid in the
development of the low fog and stratus. A weak cold front will
move into Minnesota today, but it is expected to wash out over
the region. This front may help lift any lingering fog and low
stratus today, but will not have much of an impact with
temperatures as there isn`t a strong push of colder air
associated with it.
Thursday will see an area of low pressure pass well to our south
across Missouri and Illinois. This will turn winds easterly
across the Northland and western Lake Superior. Cooler air will
spread inland and suppress highs into the 30s and lower 40s over
much of the region. Some upper 40s and lower 50s will remain
possible across the Brainerd Lakes area into the St. Croix
Valley.
A deep trough will build into the Intermountain West Thursday
into Friday and lead to surface cyclogenesis across the lee of
the Rockies in eastern Colorado. At the same time, a cold front
will drop out of Canada into the Red River Valley of the North.
Moisture will spread northward along the cold front into the
Northland during the day on Friday, spreading rainfall across
the region. PWATs with this system are forecast to be above the
90th percentile and in excess of three quarters of an inch and
near 1 inch in some spots. This will lead to moderate to heavy
rainfall at times, especially if a deformation band develops
somewhere across the region. The cold front then moves through
Friday night and changes the rain over the snow. Most of the QPF
looks to have fallen by that point, so not much in terms of snow
accumulation is currently expected. The rainfall and snowmelt
may lead to minor rises on area waterways through the weekend.
Temperatures will reach into the upper 30s and 40s on Saturday
before warming into the middle 40s to middle 50s on Sunday.
Another system will pass to the north on Sunday and may bring
chances for precipitation to the Northland, mainly across
northern areas. This looks to set up a temperature gradient
across the region with upper 30s to the north and lower 50s to
the south on Monday as a frontal boundary remains draped across
northern Minnesota. Another system will move through in the
Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe with additional precipitation
chances.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026
MVFR ceilings scour out this afternoon before returning again
tonight, but even down into IFR and LIFR later tonight. Areas of
fog are likely tonight, but confidence on any locations are low
at this time so kept with more of a low end LIFR stratus in the
TAFs with this issuance. Guidance indicates lifting ceilings
from 15 to 18Z Wed.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 341 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026
No hazardous conditions are expected over the next 48 hours.
Winds today and tomorrow will remain under 15 knots.
Northeasterly winds Thursday will increase to 10 to 20 knots
with gusts to 25 knots that may lead to conditions hazardous to
small craft.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...BJH
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
