Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
699
FXUS63 KDLH 171520
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1020 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A fast moving Clipper will bring light accumulating snow late
this afternoon into early Wednesday morning. Total snowfall
will range from a trace to 3 inches, highest in the Brainerd
Lakes and higher terrain of the North Shore.
- There is a low 10-20% chance for freezing drizzle late tonight
into early Wednesday morning following the snowfall. This
could lead to a glaze of ice around the I-35 corridor towards
the Iron Range for the Wednesday morning commute.
- A warming trend begins on Wednesday and persists into the
weekend. Temperatures are likely to increase above freezing
and then drop below freezing overnight for most locations.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Quiet conditions are occurring early this morning as sfc high
pressure in the eastern Dakotas keeps skies clear. These clear skies
have been resulting in chilly temperatures this morning, with lows
expected to range from the negative single digits to negative teens.
While clear skies are dominant across much of the CWA, lake effect
clouds are persisting in Iron County and adjacent areas as northerly
flow and delta-Ts between the lake sfc and 850mb in excess of 20
degrees Celsius occurs. A few flurries will be possible under these
lake effect clouds over the next several hours, but a sizable low-
level dry layer appearing in hi-res model soundings is expected to
largely inhibit lake effect snow.
The main focus in the near term is a Clipper that will be moving
through this afternoon through tonight. This Clipper is currently
undergoing cyclogenesis in central Alberta and will be rapidly
propagating south through today as a shortwave dives into the Upper
Mississippi River Valley by this evening. Expect cloud cover to
increase through today from west to east as this Clipper approaches.
This Clipper will be bringing widespread light accumulating snow to
the Northland late this afternoon into tonight. Snowfall will be a
bit slow to begin this afternoon due to dry air being present in the
sfc to 700mb layer. However, snowfall rates will be quickly
increasing once saturation occurs as model soundings show this
saturation occurring around the DGZ. The 00z run of the HREF
reflects this favorable saturation in the DGZ well with snowfall
rates up to 0.5" per hour forecast.
One key thing to note with this system is that these moderate
snowfall rates will be transient across the CWA, limiting overall
accumulation. Total snowfall from this Clipper will be in the 1-3"
range for the western half of the CWA, highest around the Brainerd
Lakes. There will also be a narrow band of higher accumulations up
to 3" along the terrain ridge of the North Shore as south-southeast
winds cause lake and orographic enhancement to occur. For the
eastern half of the CWA, snow amounts will be around an inch or
less. On the backside of the snow on early Wednesday morning, there
is a 10-20% chance of freezing drizzle for several hours as a loss
of ice aloft occurs due to descending dry air. This could lead to a
glaze of ice by the Wednesday morning commute.
If a glaze of ice does develop by early Wednesday morning from
freezing drizzle, icy conditions will be short lived as temperatures
rise above freezing on Wednesday afternoon. This will be the start
of a warmer pattern that will be persisting into the weekend. Expect
a diurnal pattern of above freezing temps during the day followed by
sub-freezing temps at night for most locations; Great maple syrup
making weather! A fairly active pattern continues in the latter half
of the week into the weekend with global models indicating several
Clippers moving through Manitoba and Ontario, delivering glancing
blows of precipitation to the CWA. Precipitation type from these
Clippers will depend on what time of day/night these systems pass
through.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
VFR conditions continue early this morning as high pressure remains
around the Upper Midwest. Expect cloud cover to increase later this
morning into the afternoon as a Clipper moves into the Upper
Midwest. MVFR and eventually IFR cigs are expected as light to
moderate snowfall moves into the area. Brief periods of LIFR
visibility are still anticipated this evening, especially where snow
will be heaviest in the Brainerd Lakes and higher terrain of the
North Shore. Snow ends tonight into early Wednesday morning, with
the potential for freezing drizzle following the snow as dry air
descends.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1016 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Update to issue a Small Craft Advisory tonight into Wednesday
early afternoon for some gusty winds to 25 kt and waves up to 5
ft from Grand Marais to Grand Portage. Wind gusts may reach up
to 25 kt briefly towards Taconite harbor, and a Small Craft
Advisory may be needed briefly tonight there as well.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT
Wednesday for LSZ140.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...JDS
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
