Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
976
FXUS63 KDLH 030551
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1151 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A daily freeze and thaw cycle with melting snowpack will lead
to the development of overnight and early morning fog
through midweek.
- A large system arriving Friday and lingering into the weekend
brings the potential for rain, mixed precipitation, and a
little snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026
For the rest of the day, expect ample sunshine across the
Northland as high pressure centered over the lower Great Lakes
drifts further east. Strong warm air advection around the
periphery of this high will continue to push our temperatures
into the upper 30s to lower 40s this afternoon. Southwest winds
will be quite breezy, gusting between 20 and 25 mph, before
slowly diminishing this evening as the atmosphere decouples and
an inversion sets up.
We are entering a noticeable warming trend that will dominate the
weather story through the middle of the week. Widespread 40s and
even some lower 50s are expected across the region by Wednesday.
With overnight lows consistently falling back below freezing, this
diurnal freeze and thaw cycle will lead to a melting snowpack
during the day. The introduction of this low level moisture,
combined with persistent southerly flow, will set the stage for
fog development during the overnight and early morning hours
through midweek.
By Thursday, a shortwave and accompanying developing low
pressure system will track to our south across the Mid
Ohio Valley. This will shift our winds to the east off Lake
Superior, keeping temperatures locally cooler near the lake
while inland areas still reach the upper 40s. Our attention then
turns to a much larger and more complex system developing over
the Rockies that will lift into our region by Friday and
Saturday.
This late week system will likely spread widespread rainfall across
the Northland starting Friday. Given the prolonged southerly
flow ahead of this system, there will be plenty of moisture
available, meaning rainfall could be moderate at times with
total amounts generally 0.25" with some potential for up to 0.5"
of rain or more. There will likely be a deformation band in the
region which could cause training adding to the potential for
higher amounts as the Northland is in an ideal location for a
prolonged band of precipitation. This is highlighted by the
large spread in model QPF. As a cold front drops down from the
Red River Valley late Friday, we expect precipitation to
transition from rain to snow heading into Friday night -
snowfall amounts should be less than an inch and models highly
suggest that most of the QPF should have fallen by the time the
cold arrives. Also, wanted to mention that the general trend for
this system has been to pull it to the north and west - keeping
us warmer and moist. The combination of rain and snowmelt with
higher dewpoints could lead to minor rises on area waterways
heading into the weekend. While the colder air wraps in late
Friday, temperatures over the weekend still look to rebound into
the 40s and 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1151 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026
Warm air advection will lead to a MVFR to IFR stratus deck
spreading across the region through the early morning hours.
Some areas may fall to LIFR as well. There may be some fog in
spots, but the stratus will likely limit this potential. A weak
cold front will arrive later this afternoon and help to lift the
low stratus deck. While some improvement to MVFR to VFR is
expected, some models keep the lower ceilings in place through
the period with more stratus expected heading into tonight.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 155 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026
Hazardous conditions are ongoing across western Lake Superior
this afternoon. Southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts to
35 knots are producing gales along the North Shore. Winds will
diminish this evening, remaining southwesterly at 10 to 15 knots
through Tuesday. The next hazardous waves and winds won`t be
until Thursday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...Wolfe
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
