Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
685
FXUS63 KDLH 152334
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
534 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Several rounds of intense snow showers are forecast this
afternoon through Friday. Snow squalls are possible.
Visibility less than 1/2 mile at times is likely in the
heavier snow showers.
- Lake-effect snow showers will persist over northwest
Wisconsin snowbelt areas through Saturday morning. Long
duration snow will amount to pockets of 4 to 12 inches. Please
see the latest Winter Weather Messages for additional
details.
- Arctic air returns this weekend into next week. Highs in the
single digits above and below zero with overnight lows in the
teens below zero are forecast. Wind chills of 25 to 35 below
zero are forecast Monday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
The first round of snow showers was moving out of Price and
Iron counties late this afternoon. Meanwhile the next batch of
snow was located over north-central and northwest Minnesota and
adjacent areas of southeast Manitoba and northwest Ontario. Snow
squall potential will increase this afternoon and evening.
GOES-East Band 2 visible imagery and Day Cloud Phase RGB
revealed bubbling convective cloud tops associated with a region
of elevated CAPE of up to 150 J/kg. Nearly vertical potential
temperature contours will allow for efficient vertical motion
and enhanced precipitation production as that area of snow
progresses southeastward through this evening. Visibility of
less than 1/10 of a mile was observed on a MnDOT webcam near
Birchdale, MN earlier this afternoon. Look for brief periods of
near whiteout conditions as those snow showers propagate
southeastward tonight.
Another round of snow showers and reduced visibility is
forecast later tonight as an Arctic cold front dives south-
southeastward across the Northland. Steep low-level lapse rates
in the wake of the front along with 6 mb/3 hour pressure rises
will create strong and gusty winds and additional scattered snow
showers Friday morning through Friday afternoon. Additional
snow squalls are possible.
Lake-effect snow will develop over portions of Bayfield,
Ashland, and Iron counties Friday morning and will persist into
Saturday morning. Total snow accumulation of 2 to 6 inches is
forecast for northern Bayfield and east-central Ashland counties
with amounts of a dusting up to 3 inches elsewhere in those
counties. Northern Iron County will have the highest snow totals
of 6 to 12 inches with 2 to 6 inches over the southern portions
of the county. Therefore we issued a Winter Storm Warning for
Iron County and Winter Weather Advisory for Bayfield and Ashland
counties from 4 AM Friday until noon Saturday. The combination
of snow and winds will create visibility less than 1/4 mile at
times and create snow and ice covered roadways.
Much colder temperatures arrive behind the Arctic front tonight
which will drop temperatures well below normal for the weekend.
Another reinforcing Arctic front will move southward through
the region Sunday night and Monday which will provide gusty
winds, snow showers, and dangerous wind chills. Wind chills of
25 to 35 below zero are forecast and cold weather headlines will
likely be needed. Highs on Monday will remain below zero for
most of the Northland.
The prolonged period of cold temperatures persists through much
of the upcoming week with a slight warming trend. There will be
periodic chances of light snow during the period. Another shot
of Arctic air is anticipated late next week into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 534 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
Off and on snow chances will continue through the TAF period. Snow
squalls have been observed across northern MN this afternoon and
there is potential for this activity to continue into the evening
hours and spread southeast impacting HIB/DLH/BRD. Under these
squalls visibility will quickly drop to VLIFR as snow quickly
accumulates. High res guidance suggests that another wave of
snow may develop later tonight and cross the Northland through
the early morning hours. Ceilings will continue to be a mix of
MVFR/IFR through the period.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 421 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
Strong southwest winds this afternoon will veer northwesterly
early Friday morning in the wake of a cold front. Wind speeds
and gusts will increase once again. Conditions will remain
hazardous to smaller vessels tonight and again Friday through
Saturday night. There is a 20% chance of gales to 35 knots
between Grand Marais and Grand Portage Saturday morning. Snow
showers are forecast tonight and Friday which may produce
visibility less than 1/4 mile at times. Another surge of Arctic
air will arrive Sunday night. Strong northwest winds are
forecast behind the Arctic front with widespread gales of 35 to
45 knots forecast. There is a 15% chance of storm-force gusts to
47 knots near Grand Marais Monday morning. Building waves and
cold temperatures will pose a risk of heavy freezing spray along
the South Shore Sunday night and Monday. Gusty northwest winds
will persist through Tuesday morning although wind speeds and
wave heights will decrease Monday night and early Tuesday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Friday to noon CST Saturday
for WIZ002-003.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Friday to noon CST Saturday for
WIZ004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for
LSZ140>148-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Huyck
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
