Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
308
FXUS63 KDLH 182119
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
319 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The winter storm will diminish gradually for most, but
blizzard conditions continue tonight along the North Shore.
- Another system may bring light snow to parts of northwest
Wisconsin and the Arrowhead Thursday night into Friday,
possibly lingering into Saturday.
- A cool and active weather pattern looks to remain in place
into next week with some snow chances possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Low pressure is currently centered around east-central
Minnesota with snow and some light mixed precipitation rotating
around it. For most of the region, the snow or mix has become
light in intensity. The one exception is up the North Shore,
where the strongest lift and moisture transport are keeping a
steady stream of heavier snow ongoing. Snowfall rates have been
up to around 3 inches today, with reports of over two feet of
snow. The surface low will continue moving slowly east and
eventually north going into Thursday. This axis of heavy snow
may move north a little bit this evening, but with the low
essentially taking a track over the snow-buried areas, the
hardest-hit areas are likely to continue to see persistent
light, but accumulating snow persist the next day and a half or
so. It is likely that the hardest hit locations in the high
terrain will top 30 inches by Thursday.
With this update, some headline changes were made, which
essentially trim up the warned areas and confine them to the
Arrowhead while most other places are now under a Winter Weather
Advisory. Expect some light snow and perhaps some freezing
drizzle for a lot of places with this wraparound snow into this
evening. In general, accumulations up to an inch can be expected
except higher amounts around the periphery of Lake Superior.
As far as the strong winds go, low pressure taking that
northeast and eventually northerly track will gradually suppress
wind speeds as we go into this evening. Blizzard conditions
along the North Shore should very slowly decrease tonight, but
we will see gusts up to 50 mph yet early this evening.
There is another storm that might just clip our region Thursday
night into Friday and into this weekend. Another Colorado-style
low is looking to track northeast somewhere through Wisconsin
into Friday. Model trends have favored a more southeasterly
track, but wherever it goes, the northwestern quadrant of this
storm is looking to feature a very potent mesoscale heavy snow
band that will probably drop heavy snow over a relatively narrow
swath of land (say about 50-60 miles in width or so). Where
exactly this low tracks will be crucial in where this snow
actually falls. Right now, though, it`s looking like parts of
Price and perhaps Iron county may be grazed by it and see a few
inches of snow. In addition, as this low moves northeast into
the UP, it is looking like an inverted trough with some
persistent frontogenesis may set up to the northwest of the low
Friday and perhaps lingering into Saturday. This may bring snow
chances into the Arrowhead, perhaps accumulating to a few inches
of snow on top of what`s already fallen there from the current
system.
The general flow pattern Saturday and Sunday is looking to
become northwesterly. There may be a little bit of lingering
light lake-effect snow for the South Shore, but otherwise
generally cool and quiet weather. Some broader ridging to our
west early next week may set us into more of an active clipper
pattern. We may see some snow chances next week with some models
suggesting a clipper system passing through around mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1146 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Across northeast Minnesota, widespread IFR to LIFR conditions in
snow, freezing drizzle, stratus and fog will continue through
tonight. East to northeast wind gusts of 35 to 50kts will
continue near Lake Superior into the evening.
Across northwest Wisconsin, widespread IFR conditions in
stratus, fog, and a rain/snow/freezing drizzle mix this
afternoon. Precipitation will become mostly snow this evening
and into tonight.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 319 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
A few storm force gusts may persist for a couple hours, but
winds are expected to decrease to gales this evening and
eventually to gusts below 30 kt by midday Thursday as a low
pressure system passes through. Expect conditions to be
hazardous for small craft through most of Thursday, then winds
lighten up a bit with gusts below 20 kt for all except Grand
Marais to Grand Portage Thursday night. Snow can be expected
tonight into Thursday, and some more snow is possible Friday
into Saturday at times. The northeast winds turn northwesterly
Friday and some breezy conditions with gusts to around or just
over 20 kt possible.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Blizzard Warning until noon CST Thursday for MNZ020-021.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ010-
011-018-019-025-026-035.
Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Thursday for MNZ012.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Thursday for MNZ037.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Thursday for WIZ001>004.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for LSZ140>144.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM CST Thursday for
LSZ140>143.
Blizzard Warning until noon CST Thursday for LSZ142.
Gale Warning from 6 PM to 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ144.
Gale Warning until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ145-146-148-
150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...PA
MARINE...JDS
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
