Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
121
FXUS63 KDLH 150946
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
346 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog this morning. A fog bank may develop on Lake Superior
and move into the North Shore this afternoon
- A light wintry mix is possible (40%) for far northern MN this
evening and overnight. There is also a chance (15%) for some
light rain to move across NW WI tonight.
-An impactful winter system will move into the Upper Midwest
late Tuesday and continue through early Thursday. This system
will be bringing an initial wintry mix and then the potential
for moderate to heavy, wet snowfall. Travel impacts are
likely to occur.
- The active weather pattern continues late this upcoming week
with additional chances for snowfall and more seasonal
temperatures.&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Current Conditions/Today:
Surface high pressure remains in place this morning with a shallow
upper level trough moving in from the west. This trough is
introducing some increased cloud cover and while we do see some
radar returns the amount of dry air in the lower levels will
evaporate any falling hydrometeors. This cloud cover is likely
hindering fog development this morning but upstream we can
still see some dense fog in the clearing areas of the Red River
Valley. Closer to sunrise we may still see some areas of dense
fog but widespread impacts look unlikely given the clouds
streaming aloft. Any fog that does develop will erode through
the latter morning hours.
Southwesterly winds through the day will continue to promote warm
air advection and the eastern half of our CWA should see a fair bit
of sunshine. Cloud cover will start roaming in from the west in the
afternoon. We still opted to bump temperatures above suggested
guidance given the trend over the last couple days but cloud cover
may temper those temperatures a bit. For now, expect highs in the
40s with isolated pockets in the low 50s. Additionally, there is a
fairly consistent signal for fog to develop over Lake Superior later
this morning. If this fog bank materializes it will slowly
migrate north as southerly winds usher it to the North Shore
during the afternoon hours.
Tonight:
A low pressure system moving across central Ontario will have it`s
trailing cold front slide through northern MN leading to some
precipitation chances. A warm nose extends across most of the region
and surface temperatures will likely take awhile before dropping to
below freezing. Light rain is the most likely outcome until after
midnight when the profile cools, but even then it will likely be a
rain snow mix. Accumulations will be minimal. This forecast package
does introduce some new PoPs for NW WI tonight as well. A few of the
CAMs have picked up on a weak surface low moving across southern MN
increasing lift and leading to some rain chances as well.
Monday:
Quiet Monday with surface high pressure over the region. High
temps are expected to be in the 40s. Would not be totally
surprised if we need to bump these temps up a few more degrees.
Especially considering the higher sun angle and the low albedo
of our forested region.
Mid Week Winter System; Late Tuesday - Thursday
Setup:
A deep upper level trough digging into the West Coast will send a
strong upper level jet gutting through the Four Corners spawning a
low pressure in the Northern Rockies on Tuesday. This low will
then proceed to accelerate and strengthen as it travels across
the Northern Plains and towards the Great Lakes. The low then
looks to either retrograde over Ontario or make a beeline for the
Hudson Bay depending on the model.
High Confidence Portion:
Confidence is high in the system moving in late Tuesday with
lingering impacts into early Thursday. The system will also boast
some impressive PWATs upwards of 0.75" which is over the max of
climatology for this time of year. While certainly an anomaly it
seems very plausible given an atmospheric river heading into Baja
that the low will be able to siphon off of, plus some added Gulf
moisture to boot. Another interesting tidbit with this system is the
sheer strength it is projected to have. A few clusters have the
low sitting at around 986mb which would be the at the minimum
of the CFSR reanalysis climatology for this time of year.
So what does this mean for the Northland and what else do we have
high confidence in? Given the plume of moisture and strong forcing
associated with this low the worse conditions for heaviest
precipitation are lining up to be Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning. The strength of the low pressure system will also see
strong winds across the region, especially along the North
Shore. The latest EFI values continue to trend upwards for
northern MN with an area of 0.95 over the North Shore, the area
also has a SoT of 2 indicating a higher boom potential for snow
amounts. QPF plumes for the North Shore do show some good
clustering in excess of 10" based on a 10:1 SLR. Overall,
northern MN stands the best chance at seeing some heavy snow
with 6" in 48 hrs probabilities of 50-80%.
Uncertainty Portion:
But what are we less certain off? Low track still remains highly
contested between the GEFS and EPS. Previously they had stopped
feuding and had some good consensus with clustering lows over
southern MN by Wednesday morning. Unfortunately there has been some
division with latest trends. The GEFS remains firm with its stance
but the EPS is opting for a split low system with a low in the Red
River Valley and another in Southern MN. Looking at the 850mb temp
trends over the past 6 model runs also shows a slow shift towards
the north with each run. This all leads to a question of how far
will the warm front extend into the Duluth CWA producing more rain
then snow? For now, we have stuck with the NBM solution which has
the warm front crossing through the inland portions of NW WI. But
given the recent trend in the Euro that may be shifting north into
the Twin Ports.
Second Half of the System:
With such high uncertainty on the low track the forecast Wednesday
and beyond is very muddy. Wednesday should see a lowering in
intensity as the low pressure starts to fill. QPF will also
decrease and more cold air will work in from the North. The
location of a warm nose remains highly contested and could lead
to some problematic freezing rain on Wednesday. This system does
look to exit late Thursday but there may be another low right
on its heels providing us with another dose of winter. Currently
we are carrying 30% PoPs for the second system.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1129 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Another night of will it or won`t it fog across the region. The once
bullish guidance on everything being fog has followed the same
pattern as the previous night with probabilities lowering
significantly. Satellite data does show the fog developing in the
Red River Valley and still stands a good chance of making it into
INL. The other terminals could still see some patchy fog develop
prior to sunrise. Any fog that does develop is expected to erode
by late morning with VFR conditions through the afternoon. In
the evening and overnight clouds will increase with some
rain/snow potential across northern MN. Minimal accumulations
are expected.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 332 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Light winds and minimal waves through Monday. A fog bank could
develop later this morning over the Outer Apostle Islands and
northeast into the open waters. If this cloud does develop the
southerly winds will push it towards the North Shore in the
afternoon hours. Beyond that there is a lot of disagreement with fog
going forward, several models suggest it will expand and engulf the
rest of the Lake through Monday.
Northeast winds will ramp up Tuesday ahead of an approaching low
pressure system. Gales look likely across the Near Shore waters
starting Tuesday night with potential for storm force winds along
the North Shore.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
